Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 294955 times)

vince

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #800 on: December 13, 2019, 08:15:05 AM »
Hello - are any shareholders on here that are long Liberty Global be willing to post a very brief summation of their thesis? I think I am interested in this company and would love to know from a very high perspective the thesis of other shareholders? Thank you!

Probably a good idea to read some earlier posts and then maybe ask more specific questions.


NBL0303

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #801 on: December 13, 2019, 10:00:58 AM »

Probably a good idea to read some earlier posts and then maybe ask more specific questions.

After reading everything, I cannot possibly understand what value anyone sees in this :)

vince

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #802 on: December 14, 2019, 05:02:38 PM »

Probably a good idea to read some earlier posts and then maybe ask more specific questions.

After reading everything, I cannot possibly understand what value anyone sees in this :)

Lol, thats why they call it a market....take a look at the sum of the parts slide in their quarterly presentation, there was a good one a couple quarters ago.

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #803 on: December 16, 2019, 01:27:58 AM »
From cable.co.uk

"Broadband speed
With the introduction of the Advertising Standards Authority ruling, broadband providers can now only advertise speeds that are available to at least 50 per cent of their customers, and as a result, some different, considerably lower, numbers have appeared. BT now offers 10Mbps with its standard Broadband, 36Mbps with its Superfast Fibre Essential, 50Mbps with its Superfast Fibre (previously known as BT Infinity 1) and 67Mbps for Superfast Fibre 2 (previously BT Infinity 2).

In comparison, where Virgin's speeds were previously way faster than those of BT, they are now even faster. This is because, for 50 per cent of Virgin's customers, the speeds they receive are actually faster than those advertised. Virgin is able to offer these speeds because it has its own cabling network, rather than relying on Openreach. This lets it set its own speed targets. You can get 50Mbps, 100Mbps, 200Mbps and even 350Mbps with Virgin Media, setting it miles apart from all other broadband providers in terms of speed.

Conclusion
You can’t beat Virgin when it comes to speed. That isn’t to say 10Mbps or even 36Mbps isn’t enough. Both are fine for everyday use and you will only really need 100Mbps or more when you are making big demands on the network such as if several people are streaming content at the same time or if you want to get that new Xbox game downloaded in double-quick time.

Virgin gets the points on this one as its basic speed of up to 50Mbps is still faster than anyone else's entry-level speed. "

Averages are important. It's like Income inequality...who has the highest speed for the most number of subscribers. I think virgin may be like 90 percent not even 50 percent +

Bottom line, they have the better network. This has huge economic value as it's available now.
One can ask do we need these speeds? Well if we don't 5g is useless from day 1. I suspect we do or will want these speeds.
Virgin has them today, not tomorrow.
There is even a path to 10G with docsis 4.0
Can fibre and 5g get to 5 to 10G fast enough at economic rates?
True you have a dumb competitor in BT. Profit seems to be a side show..not sure If this is government mandated or regulated (after all it's a private company with a profit motive).
What happens if bt goes in a loss position to build more?
Will anybody care besides shareholders being in a state of pain?
So the main weakness I see in UK is one semi national and dumb competitor in openreach.
Aside from this , and with the conservative win, the quality of this
market is economically between USA and eu/Canada/Australia (the latter screwed up nationalizing broadband with huge problems)

There are several equity investments inside global which have I think value.

My guesstimate is global is worth at least 30 a share, maybe more..I believe as of 2020 it will trade at 14 percent free cash flow yield. For such a atable asset and leverage is not excessive , with 7.5billion in offsetting cash , I would rather own this then real estate or energy utilities , equities (although I own all 3)


« Last Edit: December 16, 2019, 01:32:15 AM by scorpioncapital »

Astrea

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #804 on: December 17, 2019, 01:50:58 AM »
I think Openreach targets a 15% return on their new fibre build. In a business briefing on 4 December 2019 (available on replay for those interested on the BT IR site), that's what they said was an allowable return under government policy. I don't think that will change now that the Corbyn threat has been neutralised.

Spekulatius

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #805 on: December 17, 2019, 04:01:59 AM »
I think Openreach targets a 15% return on their new fibre build. In a business briefing on 4 December 2019 (available on replay for those interested on the BT IR site), that's what they said was an allowable return under government policy. I don't think that will change now that the Corbyn threat has been neutralised.

The biggest competition for Liberty isn’t BT, it’s probably Sky, now owned by Comcast. They are using a hybrid network (self build and last leg from BT). This approach works well where the government mandated that the incumbent has to rent out their network to competitors. Sky is now starting the same thing in Italy (presumable using Telecom Italia’s network for the last mile. I can see Comcast eventually making a bid for some Liberty subs. They clearly have ambitions in Europe.
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ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #806 on: December 17, 2019, 06:20:21 AM »
Any guesses what they do with UPC Switzerland now?

DENVER, Colorado--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Liberty Global plc(LBTYA) (“Liberty Global” or the “Company”) announced that it has terminated discussions regarding the combination of UPC Switzerland and Sunrise Communications.

“We wish Sunrise well but we are moving on. Despite our willingness to show significant flexibility on terms, it’s clear to us that the Sunrise Board of Directors and their largest shareholder cannot agree amongst themselves on the best path forward,” said Mike Fries, CEO of Liberty Global(LBTYA). “As we close that door, we are excited by the success of UPC Switzerland’s turnaround plan and free cash flow generation, and we will obviously consider other strategic options in the marketplace. We’ve seen in The Netherlands, Belgium and elsewhere around the world, that the industrial logic of fixed-mobile convergence is indisputable. UPC Switzerland is the fulcrum asset in the Swiss telecom market, with a nationwide 1 Gigabit network, the best entertainment platform and a growing fixed-mobile subscriber base.”

Liberty Global (LBTYA) and Sunrise announced a binding agreement on February 27, 2019 and the combination received unconditional regulatory approval in September. However, in October, Sunrise cancelled its extraordinary general meeting (EGM), with approval from Liberty Global(LBTYA), due to a dispute with its largest shareholder and the Share Purchase Agreement providing for the transaction was terminated in November. After payment to Liberty Global(LBTYA) of a CHF 50 million break fee, negotiations continued up until this announcement.

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #807 on: December 17, 2019, 08:16:21 AM »
Didn't know sky had it's own network. Anyone think 3 major competitors in a 60m country is a good size ?

If bt is going to get 15 percent it's better than most REITs. I find it interesting government would allow such a high real return in an almost utility sector and given government push for broadband development. Still their stock price speaks more than theory I guess. Will be interesting to see if they achieve it.

Excellent article https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/874aa854-ff3c-11e9-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47

At least we can say liberty was first to see the writing on the retrenchment wall.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2020, 09:07:12 AM by scorpioncapital »

WayWardCloud

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #808 on: January 03, 2020, 02:48:43 PM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunrises-ceo-swantee-chairman-kurer-070908079.html

Sounds like Sunrise is now firmly under German control and probably not up to discuss any other type of deal with UPC. They're calling UPC's coax network "inferior technology" and list the "attractive dividend" first when praising the qualities of their company.

Maybe Xavier Niel's Salt will be interested in a tie-up, one way or another (acquiring, being acquired, merging as equals), Although UPC decoupled from them as an MVNO 2 years ago choosing to go with Swisscom instead. After all, he's pioneered FMC by launching Free Mobile in France 8 years ago!
« Last Edit: January 03, 2020, 02:52:29 PM by WayWardCloud »

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #809 on: January 05, 2020, 01:22:36 AM »
I'm almost sure freenet and the failed deal is a symptom of low negative Interest rates. I believe I read that freenet borrowed money at low rates to buy their sunrise stake and now collects an arbitrage on the higher dividend. Basically like free money. There is no incentive to rock the boat or get adventurous, to grow earnings or anything other than this zombie Corp behavior of borrow at near 0 and pocket a positive spread on the div. Alot is skewed  by the CB adventures, to liberty's detriment I guess.