Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 271501 times)

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #860 on: January 24, 2020, 09:40:08 AM »
Seems not borderline illegal but hardcore illegal. But many companies to blame. On the other hand it is an equal speculation to have what you think is amazing info and maybe it's useless. From q3 I see they guided revenue down , fcf 700m+. Unless something is dramatically different and I've seen companies declare new guidance ahead of earnings publicly,  I'm expecting this. Maybe the magnitude is the question.


Munger_Disciple

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #861 on: January 24, 2020, 09:51:29 AM »
Value is there, but then Mike is there as well.... I think both cancel out each other. It has been in a decline since 5 last years, so unless they start selling out pieces and doing buybacks, there will be no catalyst to create this value.

+1

The "value" seems to be disintegrating by the month. Fries said there is a lot of "optionality" in Liberty Global even though Virgin Media is facing a lot of competition in his CNBC interview a few days back. I interpreted it as: UK business sucks & I am just praying to God that someone like Vodaphone or Comcast takes it off our hands at a big multiple. Then I don't have to put up with all the travel to London from Colorado in my private jet.

Plus he keeps saying stuff like "Broadband is the killer app" on TV as others pointed out. I would get more excited about Liberty Global if Fries becomes part of the "restructuring".
« Last Edit: January 24, 2020, 10:01:33 AM by Munger_Disciple »

Spekulatius

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #862 on: January 24, 2020, 10:29:38 AM »
Value is there, but then Mike is there as well.... I think both cancel out each other. It has been in a decline since 5 last years, so unless they start selling out pieces and doing buybacks, there will be no catalyst to create this value.

I agree that Fries should go. I have followed LBTYA forever , but havenít bought until very recently. This business needs some solid execution and even slow growth in top and bottomline on a somewhat consistent basis makes this a $30 stock, imo. Fries has never presented a plan and executed to it during the 5+ years I followed this. Itís a neverending game of moving yardsticks.
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kab60

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #863 on: January 24, 2020, 10:41:29 AM »
I believe Berenberg is the most bearish on the stock. If anyone wants some headlines from their recent report hit me up. I don't have a position nor any view on the stock.

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #864 on: January 24, 2020, 11:59:00 AM »
I think BofA came out today with a target of 25 to 35.

skanjete

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #865 on: January 26, 2020, 06:44:37 AM »
Value is there, but then Mike is there as well.... I think both cancel out each other. It has been in a decline since 5 last years, so unless they start selling out pieces and doing buybacks, there will be no catalyst to create this value.

Isn't this exactly what they have been doing over the last 2 years?

NotSoWise

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #866 on: January 26, 2020, 07:37:04 AM »
To extract full value, they would have to sell out everything and return all the money. Its not Mike's preferred scenario as he would have to cut off the branch he is sitting on comfortably. For the time being buybacks are put on hold due to potential (?) CF/ covenants issues (despite attractive stock price) and Swiss business hasnít sold.

Was it possible to do more exits in this time frame? - hard to say - things take time, you need to prepare businesses for sale, then you have to digest internally the spinoff (central functions, etc). So, yes, they moved in the right direction, but it was not enough to move the price. On top they fu.... up in UK.

skanjete

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #867 on: January 27, 2020, 03:20:29 AM »
To extract full value, they would have to sell out everything and return all the money. Its not Mike's preferred scenario as he would have to cut off the branch he is sitting on comfortably. For the time being buybacks are put on hold due to potential (?) CF/ covenants issues (despite attractive stock price) and Swiss business hasnít sold.

Was it possible to do more exits in this time frame? - hard to say - things take time, you need to prepare businesses for sale, then you have to digest internally the spinoff (central functions, etc). So, yes, they moved in the right direction, but it was not enough to move the price. On top they fu.... up in UK.

UK is indeed less than ideal, but the market overly concentrates on this issue.
There is more than the UK in Liberty Global, and it can be argued that at the current share price, you get Virgin for free.

So what is the UK risk actually? If you don't pay for it, there's no risk. And so the UK situation converts in an opportunity instead of a risk if they ever can stabilise it...

About Fries : there's a lot to be said about him, but if you consider the metrics per share (including splitoff LILA), his track record over the last decade is not so bad as the share price suggests. The low share price is principally a result from multiple contraction instead of worse results.

NotSoWise

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #868 on: January 27, 2020, 05:56:28 AM »
And why do you think the multiple went down? CHTR multiple is doing fine...

Mungerish

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #869 on: February 03, 2020, 12:37:34 PM »
Thought this would be of interest here given the discussion around Charter vs. the rest

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/01/30/att-regulation-media-earnings-squawk-box-panel.html

If the road to Charterization within UK and Euroland became clear and visible,  LBTYA would be a unique opportunity provided they had the right guy to execute it. Fries may not have many Rutledge-like characteristics.