Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 299617 times)

Liberty

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #870 on: February 04, 2020, 06:38:39 AM »
And why do you think the multiple went down? CHTR multiple is doing fine...

CHTR and LBTYA shouldn't be compared too much. The industry dynamic is different in Europe. And CHTR management is better.


scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #871 on: February 04, 2020, 07:22:05 AM »
Agree. Lbtya will never be as good an investment as chtr. A better comparison might be Shaw or Rogers in Canada. I do not like the regulatory environment for broadband outside the USA. In fact it seems even worse than a commodity business. At least a commodity business is free, even if limited, while foreign telecom is worse than a commodity. It's a commodity considered almost an arm of the government social services. I know comparing broadband to say steel is crazy, but is it getting better or getting worse ? I don't see much improvement in any country I look. We shall see...

NotSoWise

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #872 on: February 04, 2020, 07:23:35 AM »
This was my point, multiple went down as regulations got tougher in EU plus Mike's performance was getting worse each year. Quite opposite to his skiing skills which must have improved a lot in Colorado.

rogermunibond

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #873 on: February 04, 2020, 08:19:43 AM »
LBTYA mgmt (Fries) and even Malone made the argument that European cable dynamics were better on the payTV side.  Less cost for content, less cordcutting, benefits from triple or quad play.  Also more opportunities for consolidation despite the regulatory environment.

The thesis has been largely proven false.

Which is why LBTYA is in the position it's in.

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #874 on: February 04, 2020, 09:25:13 AM »
Cordcutting is pretty global..I remember a guy in krakow was even watching TV streaming off his 4g connection. Not even broadband.

Munger_Disciple

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #875 on: February 04, 2020, 09:41:29 AM »
LBTYA mgmt (Fries) and even Malone made the argument that European cable dynamics were better on the payTV side.  Less cost for content, less cordcutting, benefits from triple or quad play.  Also more opportunities for consolidation despite the regulatory environment.

The thesis has been largely proven false.

Which is why LBTYA is in the position it's in.

Liberty Global didn't have mobile network in most countries. And Fries never articulated what Liberty's strategy was or is. It now looks like they are trying to sell whatever they could to whoever they could. And once in a while they make investments in media properties (for example LionsGate, Univision). And then they totally screwed shareholders with CWC purchase. This company is a prime example of an unfocused, chaotic strategy with no real plan to address problems. I don't know why Fries thinks they will succeed in UK when they failed everywhere else.

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #876 on: February 04, 2020, 02:09:26 PM »
It will go a long way if they jettison upc Switzerland. It has the lowest arpu of all their businesses and one of the highest relative debt. The buyer said no to the price tag. It will be very difficult for them to go back with their tail between their legs with a lower offer. Unfortunately I believe even that is preferable to holding it. Hopefully some clarity other than we'll keep it because nobody wants to buy it would be nice.

WayWardCloud

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #877 on: February 04, 2020, 02:31:33 PM »
Liberty Global didn't have mobile network in most countries. And Fries never articulated what Liberty's strategy was or is. It now looks like they are trying to sell whatever they could to whoever they could. And once in a while they make investments in media properties (for example LionsGate, Univision). And then they totally screwed shareholders with CWC purchase. This company is a prime example of an unfocused, chaotic strategy with no real plan to address problems. I don't know why Fries thinks they will succeed in UK when they failed everywhere else.

I agree and I'd even put the LionsGate deal in the same basket as the CWC one in terms of screwing the shareholder. That was essentially Malone losing faith in his personal stake in a company and diluting his mistake by moving the shares from his own accounts to an entity he controls in order to share the burden. Heads he wins, tails he shares the loss. ...And Fries is always happy to oblige.

Rutledge on the other hand demonstrated he has a backbone and works for his shareholders when he passed on M&A offers Malone was excited about a couple years ago (not saying he was necessarily right, I don't know, but that shows independence).

However, maybe the better comparison would be Maffei / Fries and Rutledge / Lutz Schüler + Severina Pascu. Those two seem like strong operators and I am much more optimistic than most cobaf-ers on the UK turnaround.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 08:44:49 PM by WayWardCloud »

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #878 on: February 12, 2020, 02:51:34 AM »
With such overbuilding , is there any chance that with high debt and no pricing power broadband in the UK (like global) can ever make a decent return ?

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2020/02/say-hello-to-the-first-uk-street-with-3-full-fibre-broadband-isps.html

Spekulatius

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #879 on: February 13, 2020, 05:35:26 PM »
Lousy results, lousy 2020 outlook. The only thing that appears to go up is stock based compensation.
https://2zn23x1nwzzj494slw48aylw-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Liberty-Global-Q4-2019-Press-Release.pdf

It just looks like a melting ice cube too me.
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