Author Topic: BUR.L - Burford Capital  (Read 48817 times)

Gregmal

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Re: BUR.L - Burford Capital
« Reply #380 on: August 28, 2019, 12:32:12 PM »
To be fair Schwab, I think several of us have indicated you make a much more compelling case to be short or skeptical than many of the others, including MW, who at this point is literally just after publicity.

The "dur.....AIM listing" stuff is valueless. I have yet to encounter anyone involved in this who wasn't aware that BUR traded on the AIM. It is what it is and its up to the investor to decide if its something they are comfortable with. Further, this issue is in the process of being resolved. Same goes for the accounting.

The "OMG compensation" is another one. I mean sure, company comp, especially with structures like this, can be high/excessive. Are people unaware of this or to assume otherwise? Further, do you have any idea what, lets say, a senior equity partner at LW makes annually? Hint, 1-2M GBP per month is hardly unreasonable. So its either purposely misleading or unintentionally uninformed to imply top executive salaries being in that same range are so farfetched....Frankly, Id find it a far bigger red flag if total comp for the top people, was only, lets say 2-3 months worth of comp at other jobs available to top people in the field.

Which is exactly this issue with MW now. Its fine if they want to trade/front run their own noise and commotion. Make some money..great, that's the name of the game. But starting with their "BUR's response was exactly how we'd expect a shady company to respond" quip(like, yea, real substantive... its obvious you already covered your short)... now going onto to these preposterous "reports", "analyzing behavior"? Its kind of laughable, and its hard to see how this doesn't impugn their credibility.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2019, 12:35:00 PM by Gregmal »


Schwab711

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Re: BUR.L - Burford Capital
« Reply #381 on: August 28, 2019, 01:08:42 PM »
To be fair Schwab, I think several of us have indicated you make a much more compelling case to be short or skeptical than many of the others, including MW, who at this point is literally just after publicity.

The "dur.....AIM listing" stuff is valueless. I have yet to encounter anyone involved in this who wasn't aware that BUR traded on the AIM. It is what it is and its up to the investor to decide if its something they are comfortable with. Further, this issue is in the process of being resolved. Same goes for the accounting.

The "OMG compensation" is another one. I mean sure, company comp, especially with structures like this, can be high/excessive. Are people unaware of this or to assume otherwise? Further, do you have any idea what, lets say, a senior equity partner at LW makes annually? Hint, 1-2M GBP per month is hardly unreasonable. So its either purposely misleading or unintentionally uninformed to imply top executive salaries being in that same range are so farfetched....Frankly, Id find it a far bigger red flag if total comp for the top people, was only, lets say 2-3 months worth of comp at other jobs available to top people in the field.

Which is exactly this issue with MW now. Its fine if they want to trade/front run their own noise and commotion. Make some money..great, that's the name of the game. But starting with their "BUR's response was exactly how we'd expect a shady company to respond" quip(like, yea, real substantive... its obvious you already covered your short)... now going onto to these preposterous "reports", "analyzing behavior"? Its kind of laughable, and its hard to see how this doesn't impugn their credibility.

Gotcha. I don't understand the current short focus either. I don't see the point of betting against the stock at this price until we see arguments for Petersen. Even then, I'd obviously want to know what lawyers think and not what I hope. I agree the current focus of shorts is pretty dumb since compensation is obviously variable and if it's too high, that suggests there's further liquidity cushion. If you change exchanges, it won't change anything for awhile at best (from a short POV) but it will kill the short narrative. That's where I misunderstood your focus, I agree the qualitative red flags are not the issue at ~1.5x BV. BV is a fair price, given current info, and I could see an argument that 1.5x factors AM business + industry growth/ect. If Petersen wins, BUR is cheap today, no matter what additional problems exist.

Normax59

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Re: BUR.L - Burford Capital
« Reply #382 on: August 28, 2019, 03:13:49 PM »
To be fair Schwab, I think several of us have indicated you make a much more compelling case to be short or skeptical than many of the others, including MW, who at this point is literally just after publicity.

The "dur.....AIM listing" stuff is valueless. I have yet to encounter anyone involved in this who wasn't aware that BUR traded on the AIM. It is what it is and its up to the investor to decide if its something they are comfortable with. Further, this issue is in the process of being resolved. Same goes for the accounting.

The "OMG compensation" is another one. I mean sure, company comp, especially with structures like this, can be high/excessive. Are people unaware of this or to assume otherwise? Further, do you have any idea what, lets say, a senior equity partner at LW makes annually? Hint, 1-2M GBP per month is hardly unreasonable. So its either purposely misleading or unintentionally uninformed to imply top executive salaries being in that same range are so farfetched....Frankly, Id find it a far bigger red flag if total comp for the top people, was only, lets say 2-3 months worth of comp at other jobs available to top people in the field.

Which is exactly this issue with MW now. Its fine if they want to trade/front run their own noise and commotion. Make some money..great, that's the name of the game. But starting with their "BUR's response was exactly how we'd expect a shady company to respond" quip(like, yea, real substantive... its obvious you already covered your short)... now going onto to these preposterous "reports", "analyzing behavior"? Its kind of laughable, and its hard to see how this doesn't impugn their credibility.

To clarify my comp. remark wasn't about whether they are being paid excessively or not, they could have obviously stayed as the IA to the company and racked in fees, if someone is using that as a basis for shorting the company then good luck to them. I was more gearing my comments towards the stock purchases following the report relative to the compensation they are going to receive this year, it basically nets out.


latticework

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Re: BUR.L - Burford Capital
« Reply #383 on: September 09, 2019, 12:53:55 PM »
Have not read this yet, but Artem Fokin at Caro-Kann Capital just published this piece on his website and sumzero.  He wrote up Burford on Sumzero back in December. 

http://caro-kann-capital.com/pdf/2019_09_09_Burford_Muddy_Waters_Dreams_of_Black_Cat_That_Just_Is_Not_There_by_Caro-Kann_Capital.pdf

writser

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Re: BUR.L - Burford Capital
« Reply #384 on: Today at 02:52:30 AM »
This topic has been suspiciously silent. Shares are making new lows. From the latest press release:

Quote
[..] with the expectation that Burford's registration statement would be filed with the SEC in April 2020.  It is not viable to file a registration statement without including Burford's 2019 results.

Quote
In response to shareholder inquiries, Burford confirms that it will provide in its 2019 annual report information about management compensation (including individual compensation disclosure for Messrs  Bogart and Molot) consistent with the disclosure obligations to which it will be subject under its potential US listing even though those obligations will not yet have taken effect.

Burford is probably still way out of my comfort zone but now seems as good a time as any to buy some shares around 1.2x book, if you are interested in this name. The hype seems to be over. Any new thoughts?
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

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