Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 252479 times)

dwy000

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #680 on: September 13, 2019, 09:40:00 PM »
For some reason I thought it was north of $300M.  But looking it up again it looks like its only 50M Swiss.  I guess not that big of a deal (although better than nothing).


scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #681 on: September 14, 2019, 12:21:53 AM »
Is the breakup contingent on Sunrise getting financing? Because if not, I can see a case for Liberty suing since nothing has changed except that they changed their mind after making a deal, or wanting a lower price. I don't find this situation particularly good for Global. I mean you have an asset, you want to sell it..and it turns out you can't sell it, or maybe have to reduce the price alot. That cannot be good for valuation. The faster they get rid of businesses in Western Europe (ex UK) the better.



Foreign Tuffett

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #682 on: September 15, 2019, 08:46:51 AM »
Is the breakup contingent on Sunrise getting financing? Because if not, I can see a case for Liberty suing since nothing has changed except that they changed their mind after making a deal, or wanting a lower price. I don't find this situation particularly good for Global. I mean you have an asset, you want to sell it..and it turns out you can't sell it, or maybe have to reduce the price alot. That cannot be good for valuation. The faster they get rid of businesses in Western Europe (ex UK) the better.

Agreed. Liberty Global shareholders should definitely be rooting for this deal to close.

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #683 on: September 20, 2019, 09:16:35 AM »
Citi double downgrade today. Doesn't sound like anything new, but if someone sees the note curious if the probabilities of Swiss deal closure have changed and if any reason they have.

Citi analyst Nayab Amjad double downgraded Liberty Global to Sell from Buy and lowered her price target for the shares to $25 from $31. The stock has outperformed since January on hopes of completion of the Swiss unit disposal, the closing of the Vodafone deal, and the recent tender offer, Amjad tells investors in a research note. However, she has concerns over Liberty Global's longer term growth amid slowing trends at Virgin and harder to find accretive acquisitions. Further, the analyst points out that any further material share buybacks will need to the Swiss sale to complete, and she sees some risks to the deal.


cmlber

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #684 on: September 20, 2019, 09:19:09 AM »
the analyst points out that any further material share buybacks will need to the Swiss sale to complete.

 :o  ex Swiss deal they still have $9B in cash...

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #685 on: September 20, 2019, 12:19:35 PM »
Yeah but they also have a large debt against that cash. So far even with buying back a large chunk of shares this investment has been rather disappointing.

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #686 on: September 20, 2019, 12:56:59 PM »
Saw the citi report. October 4 is court ruling re Swiss merger. They say it could be blocked and then modifications. They did not assign probabilities to it being blocked. Unless they have an informed view on the court case which they did not express in the report. In which case nothing new.

WayWardCloud

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #687 on: September 20, 2019, 01:04:47 PM »
Great talk at Communacopia a couple days ago! (the sound quality is awful though)
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1260199&tp_key=16cf4675ca

Here are my notes

Whole company

3rd largest MSO (= Multiple Systems Operator = cable co) in the US?? Bigger than Altice and Cox combined. What on Earth is he talking about? (Thanks Ander for the transcript)
"and weíll see about Switzerland". Mike makes it sound like it might not be happening anymore.
Open to do several more modified dutch tender buybacks. He says he's glad the first one didnít propel the stock price


UK/Virgin Media

No rush to buy a mobile phone operator.
All network to 1Gig in 24 months
Lightning targeting 400-500k new homes per year, so far has built 1.8M, 400k of which became actual customers. He says the returns are great.
Plans for even more fiber extensions, open to other operators capital and/or government involvement in return for opening their pipes (wholesale) but nothing is certain.


Holland/Vodafone-Ziggo

A decision will be made in January whether to IPO it or not.
Malone and the whole board are flying to Holland for an entire week to discuss the business. Are they about to do something big? Buy the other half from Vodafone?
Revenue and ocf finally very slightly up.
Their sport bundle is so good it's the 2nd reason people subscribe.
36% fix-mobile converged, new box rolling out.
100% of the network at 1 Gig in 24 months versus KPN is only about 40% fiber.


Belgium/Telenet

No growth, great fcf and dividend, very stable and steady, utility-like.
They don't cover the whole country though, super weird because itís so small. North and South of Belgium are different operators? Looking at inorganic growth there with other regions to finally be complete.


Switzerland/UPC

Regulatory approval due very soon and no issue at all on that front.
30+ day after is an EGM (Extraordinary General Meeting) where the vote will happen, so we're probably talking late November.
He sounds like the deal is probably not happening because of the Germans. Or maybe he's just playing coy to show them heís not going to run after them for a deal and simply pretends to be OK with keeping UPC because he doesn't want to renegotiate?
Full 1gig coming, new box starting, arpu up 3%, turning the corner... blablabla he sounds full of shit.


Descaling the whole business?

IT costs have shrunk in the past few years, they went from 320M to 200M this year
Still under contract to selling IT services to the divested assets to Vodafone and DT (400M revenues from them next year) then little by little theyíll let go and descale the IT to match the reduced footprint, but it's not an abrupt cliff.

Capex is down 25%, OFCF up 75% (?), they spent 2B in the past 3 years on capex so itís now naturally coming down.
They're not cutting expenses on Lightning new builds or on new boxes roll-out though.

"Leverage target of 4-5 as usual, it's around 5 now." Heís changed what they say! The CFO used to say better be at 3-4 if we get smaller.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2019, 09:05:41 PM by WayWardCloud »

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #688 on: September 20, 2019, 02:30:09 PM »
WayWardCloud - thx for flagging. I read the transcript (and then listened to the times he spoke about Switzerland). It didn't sound to me that he thought the odds on Switzerland were lower. Just my personal read. Either way, we'll find out soon in enough - as in the coming weeks!

"The third thing I'd say is we still are a substantial operating platform. We'd be the third largest MSO in
the U.S., much bigger than Altice, bigger than Cox, might even be bigger than combined. Not sure of
the numbers, off top of my head, but close to it. We'll have in the 7 countries, including Switzerland and
Holland today, over 45 million fixed and mobile RGUs, it's a big business; 7 billion of EBITDA, if you take
half the EBITDA from the JV in Holland. So this is a big platform. And we have a lot of work to do to grow
these businesses, continue to manage these businesses in U.K. and Ireland, Belgium and Holland, Poland
and Slovakia, Switzerland, we'll find out, to realize great value for shareholders. That is the goal. So
there's still a lot of runway, I would say, on the group strategy, and these inflection points don't bother us
at all."

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #689 on: September 21, 2019, 08:57:27 AM »
Thanks for posting your notes WayWardCloud