Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 253978 times)

cameronfen

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #740 on: November 13, 2019, 05:00:01 PM »
https://www.telecomtv.com/content/5g/why-sunrise-is-going-to-double-down-on-5g-36822/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/12/common-networks-bets-5g-will-replace-cable-internet-in-your-home.html

It seems 5G could make fixed broadband a dead business. Anyone think it's premature or is this happening before our eyes and fixed broadband investments are going to zero..slowly?

I remember having this discussion on the charter thread so you can look there.  It might happen but it will be a slow moving crash and so hopefully if you are careful you can bail. 


scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #741 on: November 14, 2019, 01:15:34 AM »
I guess we can only hope the Malone family sees the writing on the wall at the right time to not only preserve shareholder capital but also to offer a decent return. If they get blinded , as sometimes happens , it could be expensive for shareholders. Not sure how to position size the 5g risk but I keep coming back to pricing and costs. Even if you see 5g as a new entrant with the same pricing as 1gbps cable you have a new market player to share the entire broadband pie. Would a new entrant offering the same price but a sexier technology with more future options take alot of old customers with it ?

Some articles on EU and UK cable regulation

https://www.technologyslegaledge.com/2018/07/co-investment-models-for-broadband-infrastructure-an-explanation-and-short-critique/#1

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/latest/media/media-releases/2018/statement-bt-regulatory-accounts

I get the impression UK is a superior legal regulatory environment to Europe and USA is a superior environment to uk. For now...and not considering 5g rules which seem to be in flux ?

Liberty could just downsize , sell everything outside the UK. Pay down debt and buy back shares or hold a reserve for businesses that may not be disintermediated or regulated as much as broadband in UK. Overall the management needs to figure out what is causing value not to be realized with a very stagnating share price.

Side note ..saw this in bam letter today

"
We believe strongly that as people, places and objects become increasingly interconnected, the importance and
value of data infrastructure assets will continue to grow. Given the ongoing evolution and innovation taking place
in the telecom sector, we are looking to partner with telecom owners by investing in and leasing back their
infrastructure. The other factor that is helpful to this trend is that the capital required to build out this data
infrastructure is far greater than the capital the traditional telecom owners typically have access to within their own
financial resources.
We own the leading independent telecom tower operator in France, with over 7,000 towers and active rooftop
sites. More recently, we secured an exclusive agreement to invest into one of the largest privately-owned tower
business in the world—130,000 telecom towers that support Reliance Jio in India. We have also been acquiring
and building out fiber networks. Our U.K. regulated distribution business is deploying fiber-to-the-home networks
in new housing developments as part of its multi-utility offering in response to customer demand for faster and
more reliable broadband solutions. Meanwhile, our French telecommunications infrastructure business is rolling
out four fiber networks to connect over 700,000 households in the next few years as part of the French
government’s national broadband plan, and in New Zealand we are deploying 5G technology on our network
"
« Last Edit: November 14, 2019, 05:52:33 AM by scorpioncapital »

cameronfen

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #742 on: November 14, 2019, 06:06:04 AM »
https://www.telecomtv.com/content/5g/why-sunrise-is-going-to-double-down-on-5g-36822/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/12/common-networks-bets-5g-will-replace-cable-internet-in-your-home.html

It seems 5G could make fixed broadband a dead business. Anyone think it's premature or is this happening before our eyes and fixed broadband investments are going to zero..slowly?

I remember having this discussion on the charter thread so you can look there.  It might happen but it will be a slow moving crash and so hopefully if you are careful you can bail.

Isn´t there a risk that 5G will reach almost everywhere simultaneous and offer a cheaper solution than cable "over night"? (This is what I mean with my previous post, I am so uneducated about whole this business)

So afaik, 5g used high frequency spectrum.  The benefit of high frequency spectrum is the light can hold a lot of data.  The downside is it only has the range of one city block.  Thus you need fiber either from buying an existing cable company, or build your own in order to build a 5g network of small cells (basically mini towers with a one block range).  Thus the rollout is slow as telcos build the infrastructure for 5g. 

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #743 on: November 14, 2019, 06:45:32 AM »
Is this a technology issue to overcome or a law of physics?

cameronfen

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #744 on: November 14, 2019, 07:00:41 AM »
Is this a technology issue to overcome or a law of physics?

The low transmitting distance has to do with moisture in the air, which is why you get reports of 5g not working as well in the rain.  Basically the higher frequency stuff gets disapated when it hits water molecules, so it seems like a physics issue with likely fixes that will improve 5g quality in the rain, but nothing on the horizon that will allow 5g to blanket a whole town via one macro cell tower. 

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #745 on: November 14, 2019, 08:01:11 AM »
It seems most 5g operators are going for multiple small towers. Would that work to canvas the entire region? I understand there is issues of ascetics, maybe even health safety, but I see that reported strategy to have many small towers not one.

rogermunibond

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #746 on: November 14, 2019, 08:03:35 AM »
The US 5G is a sh*tshow since most of the bandwidth is mm wavelength 25-36Ghz.  Not enough mid Ghz bandwidth in the US.

China, Japan, SK are all I think using mid Ghz (2-6 Ghz).  It gives the best coverage with decent speed.

Europe is looking at 3.5Ghz and 25-26Ghz.

Then there are reasons not to use 3-3.5Ghz like interference with weather satellites.


no_free_lunch

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #747 on: November 14, 2019, 09:16:19 AM »
Quote
The latest cellular technology, 5G, will employ millimeter waves for the first time in addition to microwaves that have been in use for older cellular technologies, 2G through 4G. Given limited reach, 5G will require cell antennas every 100 to 200 meters, exposing many people to millimeter wave radiation. 5G also employs new technologies (e.g., active antennas capable of beam-forming; phased arrays; massive multiple inputs and outputs, known as massive MIMO) which pose unique challenges for measuring exposures.

Millimeter waves are mostly absorbed within a few millimeters of human skin and in the surface layers of the cornea. Short-term exposure can have adverse physiological effects in the peripheral nervous system, the immune system and the cardiovascular system. The research suggests that long-term exposure may pose health risks to the skin (e.g., melanoma), the eyes (e.g., ocular melanoma) and the testes (e.g., sterility).
..
As a society, should we invest hundreds of billions of dollars deploying 5G, a cellular technology that requires the installation of 800,000 or more new cell antenna sites in the U.S. close to where we live, work and play?

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/we-have-no-reason-to-believe-5g-is-safe/

I don't know Europe that well but perhaps they are more likely to block 5G if there are health issues?  I don't know if I like the idea of 5G to be honest.  I'm not rolling the dice on cancer so people can have higher res netflix on their phone.  To hell with that!

On the business, right now it looks like fixed broadband is in slow decline but wireless (4G wireless i believe) is growing enough to make up for it.  It actually seems like a decent bet to me.  One caveat, I would prefer they work on debt paydown rather than share buybacks.  The stock is already very cheap, however it's being held down by the melting ice cube theme coupled with debt risk.  I think if they can use some of their cash hoard to pay debt, it could have more of an impact on the stock than other forms of capital allocation.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2019, 09:22:38 AM by no_free_lunch »

vince

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #748 on: November 14, 2019, 10:17:40 AM »
https://www.telecomtv.com/content/5g/why-sunrise-is-going-to-double-down-on-5g-36822/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/12/common-networks-bets-5g-will-replace-cable-internet-in-your-home.html

It seems 5G could make fixed broadband a dead business. Anyone think it's premature or is this happening before our eyes and fixed broadband investments are going to zero..slowly?

I remember having this discussion on the charter thread so you can look there.  It might happen but it will be a slow moving crash and so hopefully if you are careful you can bail.

I think it's pretty clear that cable is in pole position for 5G as well.  I would rather the potential threat didn't exist at all because change brings challenges and increases the range of potential outcomes (risk).  But it also brings opportunity and if you study telecommunications infrastructure it seems like cable is well positioned to lead the transition to 5G.  That doesn't mean it will necessarily be a net positive in terms of their economics but other factors (performance, cost, time to market) look favorable in terms of cable's positioning.

dwy000

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #749 on: November 14, 2019, 01:46:05 PM »
Seth Klarman added to his position and it's his top holding.  https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BAUPOST

At least I'm in good company even if I'd rather be in the money.