Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 291807 times)

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #820 on: January 14, 2020, 01:28:49 AM »
So in the broadband business , the right mental model would be that there is a sweet spot between too much competition and too little, and when that balance is found you get synergies and good profits for the private providers? Australia tried a nationalized provider and service quality and costs was a problem. Too much wholesale competition on the other hand leads to ok networks but rock bottom prices and high costs to stay one step ahead..both extremes seem to destroy the business for shareholders. Maybe it's a bell curve. I do notice a hypocrisy though. Not dominant players complain against a tie up (eg orange in Belgium recently complaint by Telenet) and dominant players complain not being allowed a tie up. Seems all are talking their own interests. But generally scale would seem to be an advantage or might as well get out of the market
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 02:52:33 AM by scorpioncapital »


Spekulatius

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #821 on: January 14, 2020, 03:52:23 AM »
I think this is a big takeover play here. As Malone says I think Sky/Comcast has to transition to over the internet. Well they are not going to want to piggyback on someone else's pipes. There are only 2 companies they can buy BT or Global. BT are mainly over copper phone wires and is a quasi government business. Vodafone can't just stay doing mobile/4g they need fixed wired capability and I can see them being very interested. Brookfields would be interested as they are looking for infrastructure assets. I think in the UK if you are looking for a high speed internet company with decent footprint there is only Global that you can buy. There are certain other players who are trying to build fibre but it will take too long to get anywhere near Globals spread. With the price that Global is trading at the minute would not be surprised to see it getting taken out very soon. Those pipes are very valuable. The main risk will be regulatory in my opinion.

Re SKY/ Comcast - it is my impression that SKY has their own internet network, they don’t have the last mile (or leg) and I am not sure how deep they have pushed into the neighborhoods. For the last leg, they indeed use BT. So I am not sure if merging their assets with Virgin Lightning is the best option,  I much less if regulators would allow so.

However, SKY is not just Britain, they are allowed Europe and they want to offer broadband everywhere it makes sense. Now with Telecom Italia forced to offer wholesale rates to resellers, they are going to offer broadband there as well, but I am sure they would go into other countries too, if it makes economic sense. That’s why I think that mergers with LBTYA or their subs are on the table.
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forest81

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #822 on: January 14, 2020, 04:41:46 AM »
Sky don't have any of there own network. They use openreach which is owned by BT. Openreach only have FTTC. Last mile copper phone line. Hence if sky want to do 4k programming over internet they need something better than BT. There is only Global.

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #823 on: January 14, 2020, 04:48:10 AM »
But how about in 2021 to 2024? Bt is claiming full fiber for like half the homes in the UK. And altnets are working like ants to have full fiber in urban areas too. Maybe sky wants to co invest then buy an entire network might be obsolete.. already they're talking of co investment with liberty fiber and also altnets. On the other hand , global appears super cheap and where else can you get this scale for 12 to 13 billion market cap?

forest81

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #824 on: January 14, 2020, 04:58:47 AM »
BT have been talking for many years about full fibre mainly to appease politicians who want it too happen. It will happen but will be mega costly and I believe will take beyond 2024. Altnets are building full fibre in some cities where it makes sense and this will curb Globals profit making ability no doubt. However Sky are in desperate need of a way of getting into homes over the internet now. I have Sky and you can only get 4k on your main box not on the mini sky Q boxes in other rooms. However I can 4k over internet through Netflix in every room. They will get left behind if they do not do something soon. Malone identified that Comcast/ Sky need to do something ASAP. As you correctly identify could you replicate Globals footprint for 13b. No way and it would take many years imo.

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #825 on: January 14, 2020, 06:00:53 AM »
I do believe global with 7 billion in cash can buy out every single altnet with zero regulatory problems.
In fact it may be cheaper than to do its own fiber buildout, or to supplement it. If an altnet gets in trouble or is cheap they could pounce.

rogermunibond

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #826 on: January 14, 2020, 06:16:42 AM »
What's the latest with Sky Broadband joining the Liberty Fibre JV?  Talks were ongoing in Sept and Fries made positive remarks on the 3Q call in November iirc.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 06:26:05 AM by rogermunibond »

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #827 on: January 15, 2020, 07:53:46 AM »
Looks like Severina Pascu replaces Bill Castell who was acting CFO since Aug 2019.



DENVER, Colorado--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Liberty Global plc(LBTYA) (“Liberty Global”) , one of the world’s leading converged video, broadband and communications companies, announced that Severina Pascu will join Virgin Media as Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and Deputy Chief Executive Officer (CEO) effective February 1, 2020. Ms. Pascu is currently CEO of Liberty Global’s Swiss operations, UPC Switzerland, and will be succeeded in that role by Baptiest Coopmans, Senior Vice President Operations for Liberty Global(LBTYA) and a key executive with the company for the past seven years.

In addition to leading the finance function at Virgin Media, Ms. Pascu will take on responsibility for customer service and field operations as well as logistics and supply chain, reporting to Virgin Media CEO Lutz Schüler. She will also continue to be a member of Liberty Global’s Executive Leadership Team.

“This is an exciting moment for Virgin Media,” said Mike Fries, CEO Liberty Global(LBTYA). “Severina is a world class operator and finance executive. She’s done extraordinary work executing our turnaround plan in Switzerland and will be a critical partner to Lutz at Virgin Media. They will be a powerhouse team.”

“Severina has a fantastic track record in telecoms markets across Europe and has extensive operational and strategic experience which will be invaluable to us at Virgin Media,” said Schüler. “I’m looking forward to Severina joining the team next month as we continue to transform our business and embark on an exciting new growth chapter to help us realize our ambition to become the most recommended brand in our sector for our people and customers.”

Ms. Pascu started her career with Liberty Global(LBTYA) as CFO of UPC Romania in 2008 and has grown into a strong operator with transformation experience across operations in Central and Eastern Europe. She has held positions ranging from CEO of Romania and Hungary and later for all of Liberty’s Central European businesses, culminating in being CEO of UPC Switzerland. She has a proven track record in finance and operations with a strong focus on customer service, new product innovation and team management.

Pascu said: “I am delighted to join Virgin Media at such an exciting time for the company and the industry. Virgin Media is an incredible brand and I am looking forward to working with such an amazing team. I leave a strong team in Switzerland with a solid plan to bring UPC back to growth and I am confident that Baptiest will provide strong and stable leadership there.”

Mr. Coopmans joined Liberty Global(LBTYA) in 2013 as the CEO of UPC Netherlands, where he led its merger of UPC with Ziggo to become the leading national cable operator, and the subsequent creation of VodafoneZiggo, the largest fixed-mobile converged challenger in the Netherlands. He currently oversees technology, network and operations for Liberty Global(LBTYA) across Europe as well as the services it delivers to other operators. In his new role Mr. Coopmans will also oversee Liberty Global’s operations in Poland and Slovakia and will be on Liberty Global’s Executive Leadership Team, reporting to Mike Fries, CEO.

“Baptiest is a great fit for the UPC team,” said Fries. “He has CEO experience and has done excellent work reshaping our operating model to drive reduced costs and greater efficiency. There’s still hard work to be done in Switzerland and Baptiest is well positioned to take the reins.”

Mungerish

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #828 on: January 15, 2020, 11:24:37 AM »
The more work I do on this, the more I am beginning to think it belongs in the Too Hard pile. So many regulatory agency/issues to deal with. Risk of Technological obsolesce. Risk of Capital Misallocation by Fries. Declining subs/users ( Shared passwords on OTT platforms is a real thing in US among milennials), etc, etc.

 It's not a melting ice cube, but potentially not a great business going forward and betting on cash flows could result in getting into almost like a Tontine with no catalyst. Malone is great and can't see him letting that go on forever, but he's not getting any younger.

Again, it seems like they will follow a CHTR like playbook, but not sure they will be rewarded in the UK and Euro land the same way given the lower ARPU's etc.

I'd be curious to hear the other side of this argument

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #829 on: January 15, 2020, 11:50:04 AM »
Why do you think they won't be given credit because of the lower ARPU's. Ultimately if they do "Charterize" it and increase cash flow, isn't everyone focused on aggregate FCF? and if so, why wouldn't they get credit?


The more work I do on this, the more I am beginning to think it belongs in the Too Hard pile. So many regulatory agency/issues to deal with. Risk of Technological obsolesce. Risk of Capital Misallocation by Fries. Declining subs/users ( Shared passwords on OTT platforms is a real thing in US among milennials), etc, etc.

 It's not a melting ice cube, but potentially not a great business going forward and betting on cash flows could result in getting into almost like a Tontine with no catalyst. Malone is great and can't see him letting that go on forever, but he's not getting any younger.

Again, it seems like they will follow a CHTR like playbook, but not sure they will be rewarded in the UK and Euro land the same way given the lower ARPU's etc.

I'd be curious to hear the other side of this argument