Spek, you are right in all above. As for reve mix it is improving very slowly as long term prepaids will decline and cable will increase, but slowly. Then you have the wireless and fixed internet convergence to somewhat improve the situation. However, what CHTR does with MVNO mobile is better as its much less capex. LILAK will not escape mobile capex, so the economics will be worse. Fortunately 5G is 3-5 years away for LILAK as they are not yet 100% 4G.
Still, when you plug in 3% organic growth in the model plus buybacks, it quickly becomes USD 30-60 stock in 5 years, depending on the exit multiple you use. Looks crazy high from todays price perspective (and given 50% price decline over past 4 years), but it is how the model works.
Under 0% organic growth, it looks to me like USD 20 maybe even USD 25 stock in 5 years (FCF to M&A or buybacks, plus some multiple re-rate after COVID is done)
So not much downside from the current price with a good chance for significant upside. This is why I still hold. But if I am wrong and see they cant grow (like LBTYK) then will sell along Zinterhofer. He has it as a PE investment, so he will need to exit at some point and will pick a good timing for sure.
