Author Topic: CDR - Cedar Realty Trust  (Read 5136 times)

thepupil

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Re: CDR - Cedar Realty Trust
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2020, 01:57:56 PM »
20mm shares traded today (20-40x normal) and 22% of shares. just got kicked out of indices so that could be who is selling. Suspect we’ll know who is buying soon.

Could be t Rowe (18%) giving up selling to someone also.

Maybe a little size up is warranted.

We already know a private market owner of crappy retail likes this. The company just announced a nice deal with the DC office build to suit which as Info notes was non economic and driven by politics.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 02:01:42 PM by thepupil »


thepupil

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Re: CDR - Cedar Realty Trust
« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2020, 02:41:05 PM »
Collected 88% of rents in July, ugly Q otherwise Still think this belongs in private hands and somewhat surprised the gigantic index rebalance trade didn’t see another big buyer (or the same 9% PE owner) come in for more.

Zero or hero, 2x FFO (4x Q2annuakized) 10x levered.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 02:47:38 PM by thepupil »

thepupil

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Re: CDR - Cedar Realty Trust
« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2020, 03:47:28 AM »
Bruce can always be counted on to start the call lamenting his ginormous discount to NAV and his personal problems of his stock only being worth a couple million after presiding over like the worst long term TSR in a terrible space. Gotta love a CEO who's like " my friends all say I'm too optimistic" lol.

So I may be drinking the kool-aid a bit too much here, but I read this call, see that they collected almost 90% of July rents, hear that grocery-anchored strips are finance-able at 3.5.-4.0% at LTV's not out of line with CDR's total leverage, see them ink the 20 year build to suit with DC (a AAA credit) that also makes the rest of the center more valuable, and start to think that this may actually be more than "an option" and may deserve greater sizing than at present, maybe even a wild and crazy 200-300 bps.

Recognizing this is a bit of a monologue, I'd encourage others to take a look and see if I'm completely delusional or merely overly optimistic. 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4367381-cedar-realty-trust-inc-cdr-ceo-bruce-schanzer-on-q2-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

Rant about why you don't understand why you're stock is so cheap, when you are a levered owner of low rent retail with dreams of chasing waterfalls (mixed use development) when the market just wants you to stick to the rivers and lakes that you're used to (sell to PE and move on)
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On a daily basis I am never sure whether I should be relieved our assets are so resilient or astounded that our stock price doesn't reflect this remarkable fact. A good friend of mine often teases me for being too optimistic. I have learned over the years it is a common trade among CEOs and I will confess that in reflecting on the dichotomy between our strong performance and our weak share price. I choose to be excited that the incredible durability of our assets and the professionalism of my battle tested teammates suggests the future of Cedar is bright indeed....

All that said I will conclude my comments with something that I have often told shareholders and prospective shareholders when discussing Cedar over the years. When you invest in Cedar you are truly partnering with me and my colleagues. Speaking for myself I have a very significant portion of my net worth invested in Cedar stock and I have invested funds continually into our stock over the years rarely selling any stock.

The collapse of our stock represents a loss for our shareholders and I as a shareholder and right alongside you. As significantly I can assure you that my colleagues and I are working tirelessly probably harder than many of us have ever worked in our professional lives and certainly with greater intensity and focus to navigate the company through this perfect storm and thereby drive a recovery in our share price. This is a responsibility we take incredibly seriously as it is a challenge that is both professional and personal.

However, as I have already described I am highly optimistic that we will be successful.

How they plan to address the 2021 maturities:
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Yes. So you're correct. The next maturity we have is a $75 million unsecured term loan maturing in February of 2021. We're currently looking at three options to refinance it. First is the secure debt market. You're starting to see CMBS and life co-loans closing for grocery anchored centers like ours. The CMBS terms you're generally seeing are 60% to 70% loan to value, 25 to 30-year amort and rates 3.5% to 4% so not all that different from that loan that's maturing. The life codes that are closing. Generally similar terms but lower loan to value more in the kind of the 50% to 60% loan to value range.

The second option we're looking at is the syndicated bank unsecured loans with the syndicated bank group. The banks currently aren't doing five year and seven year loans like they typically do but they are you're seeing them close a lot of kind of one plus ones or even occasionally one plus one plus one just kind of bridge their clients to a longer term financing and give them flexibility. So that's something else we're looking at.

And thirdly we did have one bank that's in our existing bank group approach us with something that would be approximately kind of a three-year unsecured term loan that we might consider. It probably has a little higher frictional cost to do that but I think now with the whole quarter behind us and you see our collections ramping up and approaching 90% and it will engage in a lot more robust discussions on all three of these options and the other thing that's really helpful that Robin touched on is with these deferral agreements and the small amount of waive rent we gave it getting sales reporting.

So that's helpful if we go to secure debt market to have a lot more tenants reporting sell and since we're on the topic of debt maturity the only other maturity in 2021 is our line of credit matures in September of 2021 and we do have a one-year extension option at our election for that. So that's kind of how we're thinking about it currently. Is that helpful?


Some detail on the build to suit:
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Terms:
This office building will be part of the first phase of Northeast Heights and the employees and related services will provide a strong demographic as a daytime traffic driver for the remainder of Northeast Heights. The accretive deal structure over a 20-year 10-month term is based on a net rent of $22.52 per square foot and a gross rent of $56.43 per square foot which includes a TI amortization of $14.9 per square foot.

Affect on overall property
Todd Thomas
How does this lease deal complement the other components of the project and the build out there? Are there other components that are underway that you can you can comment on more, that are more meaningfully today?
Bruce Schanzer
I'm going to introduce that and I'm going to let Robin who really deals in the day-to-day much more handle it although we're a small company we all spend time on these things. The Northeast Heights project it's arguably the most ambitious of the redevelopment projects that we have underway and it certainly does have some very distinct phases and from a [mixed use] perspective it has office, residential as well as retail. This is going to be the first phase. It's going to be a significant traffic driver to the area as Robin mentioned in her comments and even more significantly it's also going to be an economic engine for the neighborhood so much in the way that bringing workforce housing to the neighborhood will allow people to have a good, solid, affordable housing.

And the retail as an amenity will give people access to fresh food groceries and nice retail amenities. The office is going to hopefully be a significant economic driver and an employment driver and a daytime traffic generator for the area but I am going let Robin stand on that a little bit since again it's a very exciting development and certainly it's a very important part of the project.

Robin Zeigler
I mean yes I think Bruce really hit on the key points there. I mean one of the things that I will just add to that is just when you look at other areas in Washington D.C. District agencies moving to areas similar to ward 7 historically have shown just when you look at other historical trends it shows the type of economic engine that district agencies can and have provided.

So we do look for the DGS headquarter move to do the same for Northeast Heights. It also can be the catalyst for other I'll call them sister agencies for lack of a better term or other ancillary uses to want to move to the project and move near to want to be near DGS. So it's a catalyst for other leasing activity that way and it is as I said the kickoff for the first phase. So it does allow us to think about what other buildings we want to kick off as part of that whether it be the [indiscernible] street building or another residential building or other things that could be affected as part of outgrowth of DGS coming to the project and that can just, those are future considerations that we could think about under and kind of weigh and merry the different capital considerations that come along with that but the notion of DGS coming to the project does allow for kind of a kickoff of a bunch of different options for the project.

Financing:
And as far as financing options Todd because it's such good credit, there is a few options available there. Conventional construction loans are available obviously the loan to value might be or the loan to cost there, it would be like 70% or so. And those are happening for a very high credit like this. Also there is I don't know if you're familiar there is the credit term loan market when you have very high credit tenants like this taking up the entire building or substantially all of it. That could go even 90% of cost but it's generally pretty much a fully amortizing loan over the life of the lease. It would be a 20 year loan it'd be pretty much fully amortizing.

The other thing to consider is if we have a JV partner on here that JV partner might bring other construction financing and options to the table that would be available to us with them as our partner. So there is multiple options here and it's all just driven by very-very strong credits in a very long lease.

« Last Edit: August 11, 2020, 04:04:49 AM by thepupil »

thepupil

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Re: CDR - Cedar Realty Trust
« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2020, 05:10:33 PM »
http://ir.cedarrealtytrust.com/Cache/IRCache/c7c80d2e-d805-5001-bd0f-49b57b28e5fc.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=c7c80d2e-d805-5001-bd0f-49b57b28e5fc&iid=102929

New presentation.

Collected 90% of August rent, has rough economics on the build to suit office for DC.

Really need to get a refi done.

Love the “25% of NAV” chart lol.

Would make this huge if it wasn’t so levered but if it wasn’t it wouldn’t be this cheap

thepupil

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Re: CDR - Cedar Realty Trust
« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2020, 02:16:53 PM »
4 important Cedar Realty happenings today.

The Gamestop at Fishtown Crossing is OPEN! And yes, they tweeted about it:
https://twitter.com/CedarRealtyTrst/status/1310615686742507520

Fishtown Crossing is hosting a Food Truck Festival! And yes, they tweeted about it.
https://twitter.com/CedarRealtyTrst/status/1310684401232236544

Cedar Realty announced a "corporate access non-deal roadshow" on September 30th hosted by KeyBank Capital Markets. Maybe this means they aren't going BK? or Diluting us like crazy? Or maybe it's just getting everyone ready for the giant offering at 0.2x NAV.

Stock up 14%. I think it was the Gamestop re-opening.