LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker

[meiroy]

Here is my chicken scratch after going through the 10q.

I have 12.5M lila class A, 0.5M class B and 30M class C shares.   I have no idea what the share price of C shares is, the A is $42 and the B is $43  so roughly $1.8B mcap right there which is much higher than yahoo finance.  Still it's a new stock with a complicated structure so can anyone confirm the market cap?

B is the OTC LILAB while C is LILAK...  All about the same anyhow.

[muscleman]

How is debt handled for tracking stocks? Are they borrowed and guaranteed under the Liberty Global parent as EURO currencies?
I am trying to figure out how the debt issue will be impacted by hyper inflation. Usually if they borrow the local currency and there is hyper inflation and they are able to pass the costs to clients, the real debt is actually decreasing quickly.

Hyper inflation will be followed by contagion and sovereign defaults. We have been to this movie before. Doesn't this bother you more?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chile/government-debt-to-gdp

The debt to gdp ratio seems very low to me.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/04/chile-bonds-finmin-idUSL2N0TN1YS20141204
"Dec 3 (Reuters) - Chile raised $2 billion via a double bond placement on Wednesday, which Finance Minister Alberto Arenas said was the country's biggest sovereign issue since it returned to democracy and international debt markets in 1990."

Seems like it was blocked from international debt market since 1990. Therefore most of its current government debt is local. Therefore inflation actually helps more than hurt.
I think there is a possibility to have the classic boom-bust cycle. They just got access to international debt market. They can borrow money to boost their economy. Then GDP grows, making the debt to GDP ratio low. Therefore they can borrow more...... Eventually the cycle will go into the other direction, but right now since they just got international debt access, it should be in the early stages of the boom bust cycle.

Another question for all of you who likes LILA, could you please let me know why you think LILA is cheap?
"Giving pro forma effect to the OCF impact of the Choice transaction, the LiLAC Group ended Q2 2015 with adjusted gross and net leverage ratios of 3.9x and 3.5x, respectively. These ratios take into account the impact of a cross-currency derivative that synthetically swaps VTR Finance B.V.'s $1.4 billion debt into CLP 760.3 billion."

What does this mean? Does this mean they hedged the currency risk for their debt?

[no_free_lunch]

muscleman,

You really should read the 10-q if you want to know the details, it is all in there somewhere.   My take is that the chilean debt is in USD but if you look they have derivatives that offset currency risk.

I don't think it is crazy cheap but at something like 16-17x fcf there is very little growth priced in.

[ni-co]

Why are you focusing on FCF? In my opinion, this is the wrong metric for a cable co with such a strong growth perspective. You should focus on EBITDA because LILA is going to put most of its cash directly into growth capex. This is low FCF by choice.

[no_free_lunch]

Ni-co, I agree.    But the beauty of the valuation is that you can justify it, I think, based on fcf even if you assume prior capex has been all maintenance.   I think you are getting growth for free.   I suspect this might be the case because the assets are in countries that scare investors and perhaps for good reason.

[fa21212]

You are not getting growth for free at these FCF multiples. You're paying roughly 30x FCF / share at these prices. There is a significant M&A premium embedded into the stock. I think it's kind of crazy to put meaningful sums of money to work without truly understanding what you're investing in or how much FCF an asset actually produces.

[no_free_lunch]

Fa,

What FCF figure do you have and how did you arrive at it?

My numbers for 2016 are $500m OIBDA, less: 145m debt, 220m capex, 35m derivatives.   Also, this feels conservative to me.  I think some of the capex is for growth and OIBDA could overshoot.

[Fat Pitch]

You are not getting growth for free at these FCF multiples. You're paying roughly 30x FCF / share at these prices. There is a significant M&A premium embedded into the stock. I think it's kind of crazy to put meaningful sums of money to work without truly understanding what you're investing in or how much FCF an asset actually produces.

FCF is about at a $4/share run rate once you normalize for maintenance capex and their FX hedging. If you don't believe the FX swings won't stabilize over the next 15-20yrs then this isn't something to be in.

[fa21212]

I'm at roughly $1.40 of FCF / share. Chile EBITDA: $330, 60% of Puerto Rico EBITDA: $120, Chile + 60% of Puerto Rico Capex: $200, Interest Expense: $150, Corporate Expense: $8.5mm, Share Based Comp: $5, Cash Taxes: $40mm. Gets you to roughly $55mm or $1.40 in FCF / share.

[no_free_lunch]

Thanks fa.  I didn't see a breakout of taxes in the 10q so just assumed they weren't paying them.   I would get about $60m+ if $40m taxes were subtracted.   That definitely hurts the thesis.