Author Topic: JEF - Jefferies Group  (Read 601308 times)

premfan

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #580 on: June 13, 2013, 08:35:37 AM »
I think people put too much importance on a candid letter. Yes having a long candid letter is a great luxury for the shareholders cause we are "programmed" to think the more candid the letter and longer the letter the more its like berkshire so it gathers more trust  Track record and business economics i feel are the most important for future growth. Luk is a much stronger company now with jef and handler's track record is very good. Investors questioning luk based on not having a letter out yet doesnt reasonate with how real bussiness's are run.  Candid letters can easily be faked. A  track record cant be faked.  Ingredients of a candid letter with someone with not a established track record

1.) Mention Intrinsic Value
2.) Reference Buffet
3.) " will forgo short term gain for long term value"
4.) At least 8 pages long

Cue motley fool articles " the next warren buffet of x" .



« Last Edit: June 13, 2013, 08:38:56 AM by premfan »


giofranchi

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #581 on: June 13, 2013, 08:46:40 AM »
premfan,
believe me: I don’t care much about a “candid letter”. What I want is to understand a business. Saying that LUK is much stronger now with JEF, though it might certainly be true, doesn’t help me understand it any better. Is LUK a new animal? If so, please, give me something useful to understand its new behavior. Otherwise, it is unpredictable to me, and I don’t invest in unpredictable things.
A good, long, well-reasoned, and stacked with news, letter might lend a hand and provide some help. Though far from me saying it would be enough!

giofranchi
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premfan

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #582 on: June 13, 2013, 09:19:42 AM »
premfan,
believe me: I don’t care much about a “candid letter”. What I want is to understand a business. Saying that LUK is much stronger now with JEF, though it might certainly be true, doesn’t help me understand it any better. Is LUK a new animal? If so, please, give me something useful to understand its new behavior. Otherwise, it is unpredictable to me, and I don’t invest in unpredictable things.
A good, long, well-reasoned, and stacked with news, letter might lend a hand and provide some help. Though far from me saying it would be enough!

giofranchi

This wasnt directed at you . Its been a thought i been having recently where there are alot of books on how to write the perfect shareholder letter. People evolve by doing things more intelligently and its so easy to write a fake candid letter.  Knowing that the letter will trigger trust and the feelings of finding the next big thing. My research has shown me great companies or great anything is great from the start. Greatness doesnt wait. Greatness constantly evolves. Being static is a sign of something not being great. Greatness keeps on moving, evolving, and learning. Also greatness is defined by product/service that has a system of abnormal economics that is repeatable ( I use CROIC coined by joe ponzio for abnormal economics). Sorry i went on a tangent lol and i'm not a luk expert. Although, adding a well run investment bank with handlers track record really cant be a negative thing. It gives luk a more stable source of cash flow to reinvest into different assets in the upcoming decades. Last thought is everything is inherently unpredictable. I think people should accept this and continue to evolve instead of having false ideas of something being predictable.

giofranchi

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #583 on: June 13, 2013, 10:04:47 AM »
Last thought is everything is inherently unpredictable. I think people should accept this and continue to evolve instead of having false ideas of something being predictable.
Well, I guess it depends on anyone's idea of predictabily. My idea of predictability is different from my idea if certainty. I define a business predictable, whenever I possess a very clear idea of how and why it could achieve a high compounded return on invested capital for many years into the future. This doesn't mean it will actually achieve such a result. It simply means that it might, and that I have recognized how and why. This is the process I follow managing my own businesses: I say yes to the activities that I understand, and I say no to those that I don't understand. And you kown what? Until now I have never experienced very unpleasant surprises!
Why should I invest differently?
And management counts! To fully grasp the true potential of any business, management matters a lot!

giofranchi
« Last Edit: June 13, 2013, 10:08:29 AM by giofranchi »
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mcliu

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #584 on: June 13, 2013, 11:07:40 AM »
I guess your true concern is whether Handler has the investment acumen of Cumming/Steinberg, which is a valid concern.

On the asset side, the changes haven't been that drastic. Weighting to JEF has increased, and Crimson was spun-off, otherwise, it's mostly the same collection of assets.

muscleman

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #585 on: June 13, 2013, 11:26:26 AM »
Thank you Gio!
I see people comparing LUK to BRK and said LUK is a mini-BRK. BRK has free insurance float to invest, but LUK does not have that luxury.
What kind of synergy should we expect from the merger of LUK and JEF? More efficient deal making?
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

twacowfca

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #586 on: June 13, 2013, 04:28:13 PM »
I asked IR at JEF if there was a LUK AR/letter coming out along with the proxy. They replied that the annual report with chairman/president's letter will be mailed out the week of June 24th because the AGM is July 25th.

Thank you Grenville,
good news! I will certainly read that letter with the utmost attention and, as always, with much pleasure. :)

giofranchi

Yes! The letter is very important.  The power of words to create or destroy is not always appreciated.  Cumming & Steinberg's letters are classics in the all too rare straight shooter genre. They will be tough to equal.  :)

giofranchi

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #587 on: June 13, 2013, 11:07:59 PM »
Thank you Gio!
I see people comparing LUK to BRK and said LUK is a mini-BRK. BRK has free insurance float to invest, but LUK does not have that luxury.
What kind of synergy should we expect from the merger of LUK and JEF? More efficient deal making?

Those are good questions. And the fact LUK lacks the luxury of having free insurance float to invest is a valid point. As twacowfca’s remark that Cumming & Steinberg will be tough to equal is also certainly true (I would add not only in straight shooting communication with shareholders…). Simply put, I still ignore the answers, or I don’t feel comfortable enough with them yet. Both Mr. Handler and Mr. Wheeler are young and there will be plenty of time to watch them carefully and to get more confident with the new management, both their strengths and weaknesses.

giofranchi
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rjstc

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #588 on: June 14, 2013, 03:15:41 PM »
Thank you Gio!
I see people comparing LUK to BRK and said LUK is a mini-BRK. BRK has free insurance float to invest, but LUK does not have that luxury.
What kind of synergy should we expect from the merger of LUK and JEF? More efficient deal making?

Those are good questions. And the fact LUK lacks the luxury of having free insurance float to invest is a valid point. As twacowfca’s remark that Cumming & Steinberg will be tough to equal is also certainly true (I would add not only in straight shooting communication with shareholders…). Simply put, I still ignore the answers, or I don’t feel comfortable enough with them yet. Both Mr. Handler and Mr. Wheeler are young and there will be plenty of time to watch them carefully and to get more confident with the new management, both their strengths and weaknesses.

giofranchi

Giofranchi. As I have told you before I really respect your thinking.
   I own LUK and have for a while. In fact it is one of my larger positions. I trusted Cumming & Steinberg with investing my money and was very confident in their acumen.
   Just like my belief in Buffett, & Watsa I just can't see them just haphazardly turning over their portraits without being VERY confident in their successor choices. I also suspect that they are still very in tune with the continuing brush strokes being made. Ron

twacowfca

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Re: JEF - Jefferies Group
« Reply #589 on: June 14, 2013, 08:12:37 PM »
Thank you Gio!
I see people comparing LUK to BRK and said LUK is a mini-BRK. BRK has free insurance float to invest, but LUK does not have that luxury.
What kind of synergy should we expect from the merger of LUK and JEF? More efficient deal making?

Those are good questions. And the fact LUK lacks the luxury of having free insurance float to invest is a valid point. As twacowfca’s remark that Cumming & Steinberg will be tough to equal is also certainly true (I would add not only in straight shooting communication with shareholders…). Simply put, I still ignore the answers, or I don’t feel comfortable enough with them yet. Both Mr. Handler and Mr. Wheeler are young and there will be plenty of time to watch them carefully and to get more confident with the new management, both their strengths and weaknesses.

giofranchi

Giofranchi. As I have told you before I really respect your thinking.
   I own LUK and have for a while. In fact it is one of my larger positions. I trusted Cumming & Steinberg with investing my money and was very confident in their acumen.
   Just like my belief in Buffett, & Watsa I just can't see them just haphazardly turning over their portraits without being VERY confident in their successor choices. I also suspect that they are still very in tune with the continuing brush strokes being made. Ron

I agree.  The jury is still out, but the extradinordinary action of turning over the keys to Handler is inconsistent with any other sensible hypothesis than the idea that Steinberg and Cumming hold a  firm conviction, based on close observation, that  Handler is as good a value investor, holding the same values, as they are.  :)