Author Topic: LVMUY: LVMH - Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessey  (Read 19964 times)

John Hjorth

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Re: LVMUY & MC.PA: LVMH Mot Hennessey - Louis Vuitton SE
« Reply #50 on: October 31, 2019, 11:25:35 AM »
TIF spiked up north of 130 after the LVMH Press Release about a bid at 120, now trading at ~124. I wonder what Mr. Arnault will do here.
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fareastwarriors

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Re: LVMUY: LVMH - Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessey
« Reply #51 on: November 24, 2019, 10:00:25 AM »

John Hjorth

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Re: LVMUY & MC.PA: LVMH Mot Hennessey - Louis Vuitton SE
« Reply #52 on: November 24, 2019, 10:27:14 AM »
Still no press releases on the primary sources [TIF & LVMH websites]. Paris opens in about 13 hours from now, so it'll be released before then, if CNBC got it right here.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2019, 10:30:36 AM by John Hjorth »
In the race of excellence there is no finish line.
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CorpRaider

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Re: LVMUY: LVMH - Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessey
« Reply #53 on: November 24, 2019, 11:14:22 AM »
David Faber made the report?  Sheeaat that's all you had to say.

John Hjorth

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Re: LVMUY & MC.PA: LVMH Mot Hennessey - Louis Vuitton SE
« Reply #54 on: November 24, 2019, 02:33:25 PM »
While perhaps some CoBF members may wait for news from LVMH, here is : Loro Piana : CASHMERE - The Origin of a Secret.(*)

- - - o 0 o - - -

(*) This must be a keeper for rkbabang.
In the race of excellence there is no finish line.
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

John Hjorth

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Re: LVMUY & MC.PA: LVMH Mot Hennessey - Louis Vuitton SE
« Reply #55 on: November 25, 2019, 03:52:50 AM »
LVMH Press Release [November 25th 2019] : LVMH Reaches Agreement with Tiffany & Co.

It seems like the code name for the acquisition project has been "Breakfast" - there is some talk about a Merger HoldCo named "Breakfast Holdings Acquisition Corp." and a merger sub called "Breakfast Acquisition Corp." in the Press Release. [ : - ) ]
« Last Edit: November 25, 2019, 04:07:34 AM by John Hjorth »
In the race of excellence there is no finish line.
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Okonomen

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Re: LVMUY: LVMH - Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessey
« Reply #56 on: March 11, 2020, 03:19:42 AM »
LVMH now at around 20x earnings with significant exposure to Asia (30-40% of rev). Ithink this is an interesting and very moaty business with great management. Just have a hard time with the current uncertainty in China, but I guess that's why it trades under 20x 2021 earnings

jefke

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Re: LVMUY: LVMH - Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessey
« Reply #57 on: May 04, 2020, 04:33:06 AM »
Has anyone done any work on owning the stock through Dior (CDI.PA)? My interest was peaked as CDI always seemed to trade at a premium to MC.PA (= LVMH), but this switched to a discount at the peak of corona panic in March.

Having a hard time to find the exact corporate structure as Dior only seems to have annual reports in French, making it not easy to see the potential discount.

Where I'm at so far:

Dior is how the Arnault family hold most of their MC.PA shares. Dior holds 41% of MC shares and 56.8% of the voting rights.

At 180m Dior shares outstanding & 503m MC shares, there's about 1.145 share of MC (or LVMH) per share of Dior.

1) Any debt or net cash at CDI level?
Having a hard time figuring this out with no clear overview in the French annual report.

I looked at consolidated Dior numbers from their annual report and seem to have about 390m more cash for CDI, but also some extra borrowings which more or less cancel the cash out. There's 400m less of a deferred tax liability at CDI level. Other than that, i'm confused by slightly lower asset values on the CDI consolidated balance sheet. What causes this?

2) A holdco comes at a price. And based on some googling there seems to be 1-5% tax leakage when CDI receives the LVMH dividends.

3) That said, CDI seems to be willing to hand out extra cash and had an extra dividend in Dec 2019 for a total of 34 share compared to 4.8 for LVMH if I'm correct? In 2018 there was the same pay out for both companies.

=> based on my research, seems like there's no extra debt at CDI level, while having an underlying value of 1.14 LVMH share per CDI share.

Currently they both trade at 335. So by buying CDI, you currently buy LVMH at a discount. And if CDI keeps paying out that cash, you'll receive a higher dividend yield over time.

4) Historical prices in

May 20 2019: MC: 336.5 & CDI : 431 (before CDI returned about 29 extra per cash that MC didn't)
Feb 2 2020: MC: 415 & CDI: 440
March 16 2020: MC: 311 & CDI : 265.6
May 4 2020 : MC: 335.45 & CDI : 335.2

RISKS
There's usually a way to get burned if you want to be too clever and get a discount on an underlying asset instead of just buying the underlying asset.

I guess there's a chance that at some point CDI does something that's less friendly vs the minority shareholder?

(Thoughts & feedback welcome. I'm just a rookie in the investment game. Might have made mistakes. Feedback highly appreciated!)
« Last Edit: May 04, 2020, 04:37:30 AM by jefke »

jefke

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Re: LVMUY: LVMH - Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessey
« Reply #58 on: June 26, 2020, 04:45:09 AM »
Saw this one pop up on Twitter again (https://twitter.com/DantonQu/status/1276446289908162561)

"What is the reason for Dior's lagging performance vs LVMH?"

"Because French squeeze-out rules."

So I have done some googling and seems like:

Arnault can launch a buy out offer at any price he chooses, with the intention of launching a squeeze-out afterwards.
Squeeze-out happens if an "independent expert" considers it a fair offer.

If the expert says it's fair, you're screwed? He already owns > 95%, so nothing minority shareholder can do?


Anyone have anything to add to this?

John Hjorth

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Re: LVMUY & MC.PA: LVMH - Mot Hennessey Louis Vuitton SE
« Reply #59 on: June 26, 2020, 07:32:43 AM »
jefke,

First a very belated welcome to you here on CoBF, and thank you very much for a first post of yours - to me, of high quality - here on CoBF! [ : - ) ]

- - - o 0 o - - -

Respectfully and kindly, I take the freedom to suggest that you open & start a new topic about Christian Dior SE [CDI.PA] here in the Investment Idea forum for discussion of the MC.PA/CDI.PA pair. [This idea based on your observations is yours, and we don't have a separate topic for discussion of CDI.PA as far as I can see, so the privilege of starting the topic belongs in my view to you.]

I actually have some tangible to add to that particular discussion if you choose to do so [I hope you do, actually].

- - - o 0 o - - -

With regard to LVMH itself, I'm suffering from nagging doubts about if any or several of the brands have been subject to long term impairment caused by the pandemic, that again caused by permanent changes in consumer behavior among LVMH's various kinds of customers.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2020, 07:48:25 AM by John Hjorth »
In the race of excellence there is no finish line.
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai