Well I owe the board major thanks for shaking me out of this position quickly. The day I was buying I got really stubborn at $20 and it ran away up to $21 or $22.
So I flagged it for review at half that price and....here we are. Company is down another 30% today, we're at a market cap of $250m. I still think it's almost mandatory that the feds are going to have to come up with some liquidity/debt extension/relief package for retail that Dave is in a prime position to benefit from. But there will be a -very- strong argument that while coronavirus isn't their fault, their totally dipshit capital structure decision deserves to be massively punished, so given that moral argument and the compelling opportunities with companies that don't owe 2x their market cap in a lump sum payment in two years, I still wouldn't say this is an obvious winner. But I can't help shake the sense that there's just no way they're going to be able to design/calibrate a response that actually -does- punish imprudence like that exhibited by D&B.
But I find myself more and more sidetracked by trying to imagine what the appropriate relief package would look like. Does anybody have any wild guesses here? Either they fail to contain this thing and we get a huge rush of failures, or they're going to come up with some totally unprecedented package, in which case the first people to accurately model the impacts are probably going to be able to pick up some very good low-risk bargains. This and MAC both seem like they're basically priced at a 50% risk of BK.
