A little more brainstorming and thesis murdering attempts on my part the past few days have yielded the following:
Knicks/Rangers contracts are of no worry to me period, but to everyone else, you've got until 2035. Islanders are after 2030, Devils are 2024. However, for those concerned about Dolan negotiating with....Dolan, 15+ years from now, I suggest you look up the history with the Buffalo Sabres. Long story short(its a weekend, I don't feel like writing the entire novel, nor would the wife allow it lol), the Sabres were always seen as the largest risk to exit. Additionally, they are owned by an ambitious, entrepreneurial fellow named Terry Pegula. Pegula has long sought to own or create his own RSN. He also owns the Buffalo Bills. The contract was up sometime around mid 2016. After MSGN split from MSG. What happened? The team at MSGN not only extended the Sabres on a longer term than the previous deal, but also walked away gaining the rights to much valued Buffalo Bills content.... Not bad.
Separately, I always wondered, but didn't care or find it integral to my investment enough, to track the exact allocating of the previous MSGn authorized buyback of $150M. This was deployed after the stock briefly turned south of $20 in late 2017. The stock to my recollection very quickly rebounded to levels north of $20, and that was that. I did the back of the enveloped on the math and it appears the company was not willing to execute very much of that, which is why their total authorization is currently way higher than the $300M new announcement. What can I infer?
1)That under $20, the company is willing to buyback a lot of stock, but they are very disciplined over that number.
2) That the company in 2017 verified running a brief strategic review in order to feel out the market and potentially sell. So the same board that authorized that plan, and the same one that just promptly and proactively launched this one, are doing so based on informed and fairly current knowledge of EXACTLY WHAT THE PRIVATE MARKET IS FOR THE COMPANY. In addition to that, I dont think its a coincidence they made this announcement half an hour after the YES deal closed. I think they were very involved in the ongoings of the major RSN deals that took place between FOX and Disney, and have their finger on the pulse of the market for their assets.
So.... all the more reason to look at $16 as kind of no brainer territory. But that's just my opinion. Hopefully this insight is helpful for those interested here.