Author Topic: NFLX - Netflix  (Read 74916 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #230 on: September 23, 2019, 04:05:15 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/comcasts-peacock-becomes-latest-entrant-in-streaming-scramble-11568725206

In an effort to navigate these choppy waters, Peacock is expected to be available free to Comcastís more than 21 million cable subscribers in the U.S. In addition, Comcast and NBCUniversal are also looking to strike deals with other American pay-TV providers that would allow them to offer Peacock to their subscribers free as well, a person familiar with the matter said.

Again, it sounds like it is free to cable TV subscribers (implying that you still pay for the content,  itís just a different delivery) and not for broadband subscribers. Their video subscribers # from last quarter were 21.6M (and are falling), which about matches the number given above. BB subscribers are higher and about 25M (and moving higher).

Linear TV quickly moves to streaming as the default delivery option. This is great for the ca let providers and customers because the hardware for streaming is now cheap (way cheaper than setup boxes) and easier to setup (no tech visit necessary), and set up is mostly self help.
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UK

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #231 on: September 28, 2019, 05:30:15 AM »
Ok, thank you, so maybe with Comcast it is not free and a big threat, but, again:

"Apple has tried to counter its shallower offering by undercutting rivals on price. TV+ will cost $4.99 a month, less than the $6.99 that Disney plans to charge for Disney+ and a fraction of the price of Netflixís fee of $12.99. The iPhone maker can afford to discount the service because of the profits it earns on hardware and its ability to distribute across the more than 1.4 billion active devices it has world-wide."

How Netflix or many other old media companies could be impacted by such things?

DooDiligence

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #232 on: September 28, 2019, 07:02:22 AM »
If Apple & Disney were to combine, I think the rest of them would be in even bigger trouble.
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Gregmal

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #233 on: November 01, 2019, 05:08:12 PM »
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3513163-ad-supported-peacock-streaming-may-come-free-cnbc

Yup, no competitions concerns here. Just keep raising prices and signing up international accounts...

Spekulatius

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #234 on: November 01, 2019, 05:19:04 PM »
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3513163-ad-supported-peacock-streaming-may-come-free-cnbc

Yup, no competitions concerns here. Just keep raising prices and signing up international accounts...

I donít own NFLX, but I am customer and think neither Disney + nor Peacock is real competition. The only real competition for NFLX right now is Amazon video. It would consider NFLX as a long of they were FCF positive, but they arenít - they use $3B in cash annually right now. They do gain a lot of customer and it is sort of understandable , since they need to pay for content upfront, but I would rather stick with business models that generate FCF and can grow at the same time. NFLX right now canít, but I donít think itís a great short either.
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Gregmal

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #235 on: November 01, 2019, 05:28:44 PM »
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3513163-ad-supported-peacock-streaming-may-come-free-cnbc

Yup, no competitions concerns here. Just keep raising prices and signing up international accounts...

I donít own NFLX, but I am customer and think neither Disney + nor Peacock is real competition. The only real competition for NFLX right now is Amazon video. It would consider NFLX as a long of they were FCF positive, but they arenít - they use $3B in cash annually right now. They do gain a lot of customer and it is sort of understandable , since they need to pay for content upfront, but I would rather stick with business models that generate FCF and can grow at the same time. NFLX right now canít, but I donít think itís a great short either.

You've mentioned your concerns on MSGN, but for the sake of some Friday night chat, you have any thoughts on SBGI or FOX? Im digging around in those and they look good so far. Recent piece on CNBC(I forget exactly when) basically stated sports and live TV would soon pivot to being a desired asset to streaming co's. Those two kind of own that space.

Spekulatius

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #236 on: November 01, 2019, 05:55:55 PM »
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3513163-ad-supported-peacock-streaming-may-come-free-cnbc

Yup, no competitions concerns here. Just keep raising prices and signing up international accounts...


I donít own NFLX, but I am customer and think neither Disney + nor Peacock is real competition. The only real competition for NFLX right now is Amazon video. It would consider NFLX as a long of they were FCF positive, but they arenít - they use $3B in cash annually right now. They do gain a lot of customer and it is sort of understandable , since they need to pay for content upfront, but I would rather stick with business models that generate FCF and can grow at the same time. NFLX right now canít, but I donít think itís a great short either.

You've mentioned your concerns on MSGN, but for the sake of some Friday night chat, you have any thoughts on SBGI or FOX? Im digging around in those and they look good so far. Recent piece on CNBC(I forget exactly when) basically stated sports and live TV would soon pivot to being a desired asset to streaming co's. Those two kind of own that space.

I own FOX so I obviously like it. Great balance sheet and franchise and pure live content means that Netflix is not a competitor. And there are no issue with capitalizing content so FCF ~ earnings, unlike CBS for example. Switching the delivery to live streaming may actually be a positive for FOX in the long run. Ai have no opinion on SBGI, just havenít looked at it closely.
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DTEJD1997

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #237 on: November 01, 2019, 05:57:14 PM »
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3513163-ad-supported-peacock-streaming-may-come-free-cnbc

Yup, no competitions concerns here. Just keep raising prices and signing up international accounts...

I donít own NFLX, but I am customer and think neither Disney + nor Peacock is real competition. The only real competition for NFLX right now is Amazon video. It would consider NFLX as a long of they were FCF positive, but they arenít - they use $3B in cash annually right now. They do gain a lot of customer and it is sort of understandable , since they need to pay for content upfront, but I would rather stick with business models that generate FCF and can grow at the same time. NFLX right now canít, but I donít think itís a great short either.

I would argue that HULU is a competitor.  I used to subscribe...cancelled it when I watched most of the shows that I wanted.

I currently subscribe to Netflix.  Might cancel that also, as I've seen most of my favorites.  Netflix has a TON of stuff...most of bad or marginal at best.

I'm finding that I'm spending more & more of my time watching unique content on the YouTube.

Spekulatius

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #238 on: November 01, 2019, 06:10:28 PM »
^ Yeah, I would be careful to assign customer lifetime values to something that can be cancelled and restarted at a moments notice. This isnít some ERP software that running a companies transactional backbone or a LT contractual lock-in.

And yes, Hulu and Roku are competitors.
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dwy000

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #239 on: November 02, 2019, 09:13:05 AM »
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3513163-ad-supported-peacock-streaming-may-come-free-cnbc

Yup, no competitions concerns here. Just keep raising prices and signing up international accounts...

I donít own NFLX, but I am customer and think neither Disney + nor Peacock is real competition. The only real competition for NFLX right now is Amazon video. It would consider NFLX as a long of they were FCF positive, but they arenít - they use $3B in cash annually right now. They do gain a lot of customer and it is sort of understandable , since they need to pay for content upfront, but I would rather stick with business models that generate FCF and can grow at the same time. NFLX right now canít, but I donít think itís a great short either.

You've mentioned your concerns on MSGN, but for the sake of some Friday night chat, you have any thoughts on SBGI or FOX? Im digging around in those and they look good so far. Recent piece on CNBC(I forget exactly when) basically stated sports and live TV would soon pivot to being a desired asset to streaming co's. Those two kind of own that space.

I am long SBGI.  I like the local news and sports content which is unreplicsble by any of the streaming services. Basically live TV.  Sports speaks for itself.  Local content, I believe, is firmly undervalued. With newspapers in severe decline there really is no place to get local content other than the local networks. 

The company is trading at less than 4x free cash flow (not operating cash flow, free cash).  Very levered after the Fox Sports acquisition but actually low by historical standards for TV.  The breadth of geographic content and sports "must have" content gives them huge negotiating leverage with cable and OTT carriage. 

Throw in the fact that this election cycle will be bigger and start sooner than ever in history (apparently Trump spent 7 figures on the world series final alone - more than a year ahead of election).  Bodes well.