Author Topic: SEC - Senvest Capital  (Read 47681 times)

no_free_lunch

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Re: SEC - Senvest Capital
« Reply #120 on: June 28, 2019, 08:43:48 AM »
This is old news but Senvest reported Q1 earnings awhile back.  They reported earnings of $20/share and are now sitting at just over $900M book or around $340/share vs today's price of ~$170.

There lay out their thesis on a few small caps.  This includes VAC which is their largest holding. 

Quote
Relatively new core holding,timeshare operator Marriot Vacations (“VAC”),has become our biggest position. It  was  also  our  largest  gainer  for  the  quarter  rising  over  30%.VAC  is  the  exclusive  worldwide  developer, marketer, seller and manager of timeshare resorts under the brand names Marriott and Ritz-Carlton Destination Club.  The company was spun out of Marriott International (“MAR”) in November 2011 and in September 2018 completed a transformational merger with a former core holding, ILG, Inc (“ILG”).  This merger added the Westin,  Sheraton  and  Hyatt  brands  to  create  the  largest  portfolio  of  upper-upscale  and  luxury  brands  in  the timeshare industry, in addition to the second largest exchange network in the world, Interval International.With a combined loyalty program of about 100 million members, on a unified basis with ILG, VAC now has a better opportunity  to  penetrate  this  customer  base  further  as  it  has  a  combined  membership  of  only  about  2  million following the ILG deal.

https://www.senvest.com/documents/FG/senvest/reports/597385_Senvest_Capital_Final_English__Mar_31__2019_May_13_2019.pdf


writser

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Re: SEC - Senvest Capital
« Reply #121 on: July 04, 2019, 03:24:09 AM »
Had a quick peek at this today. Their holdings are down ~10% in June. I peg 'live' book value around C$300. Today's price of C$168 implies a discount of ~43%. Huge, but pretty much in line with where this has traded the past few years. Also note that the master fund is pretty much flat since the beginning of 2014. That stretch is getting a bit embarrassing. Senvest shares are still trading at 2014 levels too.

Whether the current discount is justified or not is an interesting question that has been discussed at length in this thread. I tend to think it is maybe a bit too large but a wide discount is justified given the fee structure and tax- and corporate overhead. I also have my doubts about their ability to generate significant alpha. I'll keep following Senvest but I'll pass for now. If you believe they can make 20% p.a. and will attract lots of external money it is obviously too cheap. Andrew Walker made a good argument for the bull case (link). I'm a perennial pessimist though.

As has been mentioned before, these guys should go activist on themselves rather than on their portfolio companies. But apparently they don't give a shit about how their own shares are trading and they write angry letters complaining that their portfolio companies are trading at a 40%+ discount to NAV and should fire their external manager and liquidate while their own vehicle is suffering from exactly the same problems. They don't exactly practice what they preach ..
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 03:36:18 AM by writser »
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no_free_lunch

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Re: SEC - Senvest Capital
« Reply #122 on: November 12, 2019, 02:04:33 PM »
A late response but I tend to agree writser.  Still, I watch them and hold a small position.  They have generated alpha in the past maybe they will again and at that point perhaps the discount closes.

I have to say their performance since Q4 2018 has been horrible.  They just posted earnings and I don't think they are back to where they were a year ago.  I think they are basically just tracking small cap indices.  They have a large short position but it didn't seem to help at all so I have to question the benefit.

Below is a link to the latest earnings release.  $8 per share in earnings for the Q ended sept 30.  Not bad but I still don't think they achieved alpha.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/12/1945798/0/en/Senvest-Capital-Inc-Reports-Results-for-the-Third-Quarter-Ended-September-30-2019.html
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 02:07:21 PM by no_free_lunch »