Author Topic: NKLA - Nikola  (Read 15460 times)

TwoCitiesCapital

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2683
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2020, 07:27:30 PM »
That sucks! That means no puts for rb  :(. It's a shame too cause this thing is one of the easiest things I've ever seen.


I have not confirmed this but read the smart money knows this thing is mostly hot air, so the puts are commanding crazy premiums.

Then do put spreads. Buy puts that are a bit in the money so time/vol premium is small and sell OTM puts against it. Larger cash outlay, but you don't have to worry about the "expensiveness" of them as it's close to all intrinsic value.


Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5610
    • Porfolio
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2020, 09:34:20 PM »
Quote
I should be up a billion dollars!
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

Sunrider

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 569
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2020, 10:48:57 PM »
Thanks All.

With respect to my second post, does anyone (possibly with experience in this field) have a view on whether that scenario could eventuate? If so, that really would be a crazy economic benefit for the company if they just sat on their hands, wait for the price to hit the 20 day mark, serve notice and pay a penny while nobody can exercise ...

Hielko

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1183
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2020, 10:11:55 AM »
People will be able to exercise them before the mandatory redemption, so value isn't capped at $6.5.

jalebijim

  • Guest
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2020, 07:10:46 PM »
Update:

My September 12.5 strike naked call short just got assigned.

I'm now the proud owner of negative 700 NKLA shares.







rb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3856
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2020, 07:52:04 AM »
Since this thread started I've been wondering who would actually make these trucks for them. The company that has the capability of doing this is Magna. Sure Ford could make easily these trucks but I doubt they have any willingness to do so.

The thing about Magna is that their contract manufacturing division is in Austria. Which would mean a 25% tariff for these trucks coming into the US.

Is anyone aware of a non-OEM in the NAFTA region that has the capability of building a full size truck?

Pelagic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 373
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2020, 09:27:49 AM »
No position but I found this article pretty interesting. Of course we all know established companies making similar products for decades are bloated with fools who can't allocate capital correctly so there will be massive cost savings using new tech.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4351653-questioning-nikolas-business-model-assumptions

Quote
The Nikola $173,624 cost assumption is also difficult to justify when adding up core components which make up the truck.

Starting with cost of the chassis, one useful reference is the popular Peterbilt 389 truck, which is produced in high volume and can be ordered as a “glider” (no engine or transmission) for $126,000. Given this, it would be reasonable for Nikola/Iveco to assume its truck chassis, including advanced autopilot and other features, would require circa $100,000 before adding fuel storage cylinders, the fuel cell stack, motive/regen batteries, and electric motors.

Quote
This leaves Nikola with about $29,000 remaining in the budget for the fuel cell stack, regenerative batteries, and electric motors. This would be difficult to achieve given that Sunline Transit, not long ago, budgeted $686,00 for one fuel cell stack and power distribution system alone

jalebijim

  • Guest
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2020, 01:24:05 PM »
Since this thread started I've been wondering who would actually make these trucks for them. The company that has the capability of doing this is Magna. Sure Ford could make easily these trucks but I doubt they have any willingness to do so.

The thing about Magna is that their contract manufacturing division is in Austria. Which would mean a 25% tariff for these trucks coming into the US.

Is anyone aware of a non-OEM in the NAFTA region that has the capability of building a full size truck?



It is not easy or cheap to build an electric car, not to mention the physics problems with hydrogen. You can't fight physics!

Dyson lost $600 million trying to build one and cancelled the project. 

Is anyone other than Tesla and major OEMs actually building them?

If the OEMS are loosing money on them and having problems how can it be outsourced cheaply? If anyone has a shot it's the Chinese(free money, IP theft, cheap labor, no environmental laws etc).

Tesla lost money for a decade trying to build one.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/17/21261473/james-dyson-electric-vehicle-tesla
« Last Edit: June 11, 2020, 01:31:44 PM by jalebijim »

rb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3856
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2020, 02:12:17 PM »
Where I was going is that these guys said they would outsource production. There are contract manufacturers but the only one with the capability of building a full size pickup that I know of is Magna Steyr. Even other significant contract manufacturers like Pininfarina probably don't have the capabilities to deliver on such a project.

My question was is if I'm missing anything here. Is there a contract manufacturer in the NAFTA region with Magna's capabilities?

Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5610
    • Porfolio
Re: NKLA - Nikola
« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2020, 02:43:59 PM »
Where I was going is that these guys said they would outsource production. There are contract manufacturers but the only one with the capability of building a full size pickup that I know of is Magna Steyr. Even other significant contract manufacturers like Pininfarina probably don't have the capabilities to deliver on such a project.

My question was is if I'm missing anything here. Is there a contract manufacturer in the NAFTA region with Magna's capabilities?

You're not thinking like asset-lite second-level thinker.

They can outsource the outsourcing! Then they could provide outsourced outsourced truck as a service.

It's all hydrogen anyway! Hint, hint: what do you get when you burn hydrogen? Spoiler: hot air
« Last Edit: June 11, 2020, 02:45:33 PM by Jurgis »
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"