Author Topic: ASPS - Altisource  (Read 171127 times)

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13060
  • libertyrpf.com
    • http://www.libertyrpf.com
Re: ASPS - Altisource
« Reply #470 on: April 20, 2017, 12:33:06 PM »
I guess we now know why the borrows were so high recently. ASPS is also getting hit by the OCN suit (-37% right now):

http://nccob.gov/public/docs/News/Press%20Releases/OcwenOrder17_025.pdf


NewbieD

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 200
Re: ASPS - Altisource
« Reply #471 on: August 14, 2019, 06:07:48 AM »
http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2019/08/12/altisource/

Trying to read up on this. Any bear-case refelections?


roark33

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 746
Re: ASPS - Altisource
« Reply #472 on: August 14, 2019, 09:07:46 AM »
Kuppy is an idiot, ASPS's servicing business is in decline because Ocwen's business is basically in runoff, a recession, with an increase in delinquincy won't change that. 

peridotcapital

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 518
    • Peridot Capital Management LLC
Re: ASPS - Altisource
« Reply #473 on: August 14, 2019, 10:06:29 AM »
Not to mention that the last recession was unique in terms of the volume of mortgage delinquencies. In that realm, is the next recession more likely to be like 2008, or more run of the mill a la the early 2000's and the early 1990's...

Gordon Gecko

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 25
Re: ASPS - Altisource
« Reply #474 on: August 14, 2019, 11:40:32 AM »
Kuppy is an idiot, ASPS's servicing business is in decline because Ocwen's business is basically in runoff, a recession, with an increase in delinquincy won't change that.

Aren't they already ticking up? Is OCN structurally unable to add to its MSRs? Stopped looking at these years ago.

peridotcapital

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 518
    • Peridot Capital Management LLC
Re: ASPS - Altisource
« Reply #475 on: November 21, 2019, 01:54:47 PM »
http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2019/08/12/altisource/

Trying to read up on this. Any bear-case refelections?

I just reread his post and realized that he is using TTM operating income figures, which include earnings from businesses they have now sold. I was trying to figure out why he thought they can do 100M+ pre-tax next year (50% above 2019) when the company itself is guiding to flat results year over year. All of the savings that Kuppy added back are simply going to offset the decline in the OCN business and the divisions that were sold.

Now, the stock is still cheap even if FCF is 60M instead of 100M, but that has been the case forever because the business is not growing. So you need a catalyst and Kuppy says it is a surge in RE defaults in 2020. I don't see any reason to believe that will happen, but it would get the stock moving for sure.