Author Topic: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics  (Read 5812 times)

Haasje

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 189
    • Special Situations Report
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2019, 10:19:57 AM »
It seems unlikely to me the FTC will ask for divestitures on these Hemo A assets that are stage 1/stage 2. It is possible but it seems rather far-reaching. The fact Roche singled out the hemo A pipeline assets do suggests they may walk if it happens. Break price is ~50% down... I like the potential annualized. If closing probabilities are 93%-97% there's good expected value here but I'm surely not going to go big here :) If you think it is below 93% I think it quickly becomes a position you don't want to have.


given2invest

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 649
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #31 on: May 03, 2019, 11:36:50 AM »
I'm huge in this but I do a lot of arb and am also a bit crazy.

writser

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2189
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #32 on: May 03, 2019, 12:18:25 PM »
Define "huge"? Percentage-wise of course, if you would.
I'm sorry if I have offended you. Please contact this forum's safe space coordinator to work things out.

@thewritser

given2invest

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 649
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #33 on: May 03, 2019, 12:25:05 PM »
Define "huge"? Percentage-wise of course, if you would.

30% position.  But I look at position sizing rather different than most people on here.  I look at everything "after tax" as I have plenty of realized and unrealized gains.   So if it were to go to 0, I'd lose ~14% after tax of my entire portfolio (Cali 53% short term blended tax rate).   

roark33

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 740
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #34 on: May 03, 2019, 12:31:32 PM »
Given the multiple bidders and the changed market environment since December when the parties were discussing the terms of the deal, I do not think the true break price is 50% lower, but who knows. 

given2invest

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 649
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #35 on: May 03, 2019, 12:33:14 PM »
It is not, unless something bad happens w/ one of the trials (really the Hemo A trial).  It's more likely break is 60-80.

Haasje

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 189
    • Special Situations Report
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #36 on: May 03, 2019, 01:05:39 PM »
Nasdaq Biotech ETF is a bit down from date of acquisition (~4%)

What do you think odds of closure are?

If break would be 60-80 this becomes a very good investment. I'm not convinced yet but I'll explore downside some more because that's a big difference with the base break price.

Foreign Tuffett

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1298
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #37 on: May 03, 2019, 02:19:43 PM »
Define "huge"? Percentage-wise of course, if you would.

30% position.  But I look at position sizing rather different than most people on here.  I look at everything "after tax" as I have plenty of realized and unrealized gains.   So if it were to go to 0, I'd lose ~14% after tax of my entire portfolio (Cali 53% short term blended tax rate).   

Conversely, isn't your upside here also truncated by the big tax bill you will have to pay if the transaction closes? 
Former Teldar Paper Vice President

given2invest

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 649
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #38 on: May 03, 2019, 02:46:58 PM »
Define "huge"? Percentage-wise of course, if you would.

30% position.  But I look at position sizing rather different than most people on here.  I look at everything "after tax" as I have plenty of realized and unrealized gains.   So if it were to go to 0, I'd lose ~14% after tax of my entire portfolio (Cali 53% short term blended tax rate).   

Conversely, isn't your upside here also truncated by the big tax bill you will have to pay if the transaction closes?

Of course.  What do you mean big though?  It's 114.50-cost basis X 53%.   I'm not taxed on the entire 114.50. 

Foreign Tuffett

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1298
Re: ONCE - Spark Therapeutics
« Reply #39 on: May 03, 2019, 05:34:52 PM »
Define "huge"? Percentage-wise of course, if you would.

30% position.  But I look at position sizing rather different than most people on here.  I look at everything "after tax" as I have plenty of realized and unrealized gains.   So if it were to go to 0, I'd lose ~14% after tax of my entire portfolio (Cali 53% short term blended tax rate).   

Conversely, isn't your upside here also truncated by the big tax bill you will have to pay if the transaction closes?

Of course.  What do you mean big though?  It's 114.50-cost basis X 53%.   I'm not taxed on the entire 114.50.

I understand. By "big" I meant a high % of the realized gain.
Former Teldar Paper Vice President