Author Topic: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group  (Read 14414 times)

Mitch07

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2019, 06:55:43 AM »
Thank you Sergio.

The company confirmed this morning that it can purchase up to 1,000,000 class B shares beginning June 14th. Not sure how aggressive they can be but agree with your thesis that buying back the shares would be a greater investment than other options out there at this time such as investing in bonds or even purchasing another company.


Sergio8

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 46
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2019, 01:38:24 AM »
We have an update on insider buying and NCIB:
CFO Blaine Karst and Director Glenn Gradeen have been recently buyers of the stock in the open market (https://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=ORC+%7C+Orca+Exploration+Group+). Mr Karst's purchases in 2019 are becoming significant.

Meanwhile, the company has started its NCIB and intends to repurchase 1 000 000 class B shares with an automatic purchase agreement (https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=7113740116014544&qm_symbol=ORC.B). The autorization may seem small, but it is significant when looking at recent volumes.

I hope that these guys will tender for their shares at some point in the future.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 01:48:28 AM by Sergio8 »

Mitch07

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #22 on: June 25, 2019, 01:52:44 PM »
Sergio, do you think Swala has the means to source additional funding in order to come back at a higher price that would be more palatable to the bod and us shareholders.
 

Sergio8

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 46
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #23 on: June 26, 2019, 07:27:30 AM »
Swala has historically struggled to get the funding and what they can do thus depends on what they can obtain from their potential investors.

I guess they are currently looking for a partner to bid at a higher price as they badly want the asset. It isn't likely that the company gets sold below 12 $ per share IMO (as David Lyons mentionned this as his value estimate before the first Swala deal, I guess this may create an anchor for management and BOD).

Keep in mind that management and BOD are still willing to consider a deal for PAET on similar terms to the previous Swala transaction, though they expect Swala to come with the money first.

In any case, I think we just have to be patient here and hope that when its bonds mature, the company will tender for more shares with its excess cash. We should have a nice dividend while waiting for the price to reach fair value.

Mitch07

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #24 on: July 11, 2019, 01:20:23 PM »
Almost a month since the NCIB has been activated and less than 20K shares bought back.
Not as aggressive as I was hoping them to be with all that cash on hand.

Sergio8

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 46
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #25 on: July 12, 2019, 02:04:10 PM »
NCIB conditions on the TSX are quite restrictive. They can't buy as much as they want and their prices have to be limited (for instance, they couldn't bid above 6 in the last 2 days where there has been no shares exchanged).

Mitch07

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #26 on: July 14, 2019, 06:51:10 AM »
Yes the NCIB are restrictive, and since the company can go days without any trades it does not help. Any whispers of Swala bringing back a new offer. I ask only because based on Orca's release they mentioned some shareholders were aware of the previous offer. 

Sergio8

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 46
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #27 on: July 14, 2019, 03:54:57 PM »
I don't invest based on insider / non-public information so I am not aware of any new offer from Swala (which is subject to funding anyway, so I wouldn't count on it coming quickly), but what I can tell for sure is that the current management team updates investors more often and is really trying to attract more investors.
Improvements in cash-flows and capital returns are the story for now. At some point, there could be other news like the renewal of their license or a new offer, but all of this would be the icing on the cake.

Mitch07

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #28 on: July 15, 2019, 12:48:09 PM »
I hear you.
While we've had many positives as of late (Dividend, recent GSA, strong Q results, Tanesco payments, offering from Swala, among other things) The problem we have is that we've trading at pretty much cash for as long as I can remember. All these positives have not changed that fact therefor I can't help but wonder what it will take to get this trading at a more appropriate valuation.

Sergio8

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 46
Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #29 on: July 18, 2019, 10:07:03 AM »
Well, in fact it becomes even cheaper over time based on fundamentals, which is surprising when considering the very positive developments of the company.
I believe better fundamentals, better capital allocation / shareholder returns, aligned insider interests and more active shareholders' involvement may help the valuation over time.