Author Topic: OSTK - Overstock.com  (Read 145151 times)

spark411

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #320 on: November 21, 2017, 01:17:54 PM »
i'm having the same issue.   I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up.   I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns.    At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price.    using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price.   very hard to decide what to do.   the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff.  hold like buffett or sell like pabrai?


Parsad

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #321 on: November 21, 2017, 02:09:04 PM »
Crazy good.    Listen to the last 2 minutes.   Clearly state catalyst.   Will be interesting to see how much higher it goes.   I think the market cap equaling the total revenues is reasonable.  Thoughts?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9XWghQb20k

I just sold half of my shares last week so I expect the stock to at least triple from here.  If there is one thing I do consistently it is sell way too early.

i'm having the same issue.   I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up.   I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns.    At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price.    using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price.   very hard to decide what to do.   the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff.  hold like buffett or sell like pabrai?

Explain to me why you two are crying over this...after making such wonderful investments and enjoying terrific returns?  The glass is half-full, not half-empty.  Sell if you can't sleep...hold if you can sleep.  Cheers!
No man is a failure who has friends!

rkbabang

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #322 on: November 21, 2017, 03:35:35 PM »
Crazy good.    Listen to the last 2 minutes.   Clearly state catalyst.   Will be interesting to see how much higher it goes.   I think the market cap equaling the total revenues is reasonable.  Thoughts?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9XWghQb20k

I just sold half of my shares last week so I expect the stock to at least triple from here.  If there is one thing I do consistently it is sell way too early.

i'm having the same issue.   I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up.   I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns.    At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price.    using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price.   very hard to decide what to do.   the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff.  hold like buffett or sell like pabrai?

Explain to me why you two are crying over this...after making such wonderful investments and enjoying terrific returns?  The glass is half-full, not half-empty.  Sell if you can't sleep...hold if you can sleep.  Cheers!

Iím not crying. Thatís why I held onto half of my shares so that I can sleep either way it goes.

no_free_lunch

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #323 on: November 22, 2017, 07:16:42 AM »
i'm having the same issue.   I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up.   I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns.    At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price.    using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price.   very hard to decide what to do.   the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff.  hold like buffett or sell like pabrai?

Why should it trade at 1x sales?  I think it should be based on earnings alone.  I could care less about their sales if they can't make a profit.

I think 60-75% of the value of the company right now is t0.  t0 seems very speculative right now.  It could be worth billions and OSTK is still under-valued or it could be worth nothing.

rkbabang

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #324 on: November 22, 2017, 10:33:17 AM »
Anyone here looking at the t0 token sale? 

There isn't much info on it on the website.  Just this.
https://tzero.com/news/2017/11/16/tzero-announces-launch-date-and-initial-terms-for-its-proposed-token-sale

I'm going to register and see if I can get more info.

rkbabang

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #325 on: November 22, 2017, 11:07:31 AM »
Anyone here looking at the t0 token sale? 

There isn't much info on it on the website.  Just this.
https://tzero.com/news/2017/11/16/tzero-announces-launch-date-and-initial-terms-for-its-proposed-token-sale

I'm going to register and see if I can get more info.

I'm trying to register, but I'm not sure if I am going to do this next step.  The first step is to go to verifyinvestor.com and get a verification certificate, that took about 15 minutes.  I thought that was it until I went back to saftlaunch.com and they now want me to upload a picture of my passport and another picture of me holding my passport (see attachment).  Does this sound a little excessive?
I don't see how they are going to raise half a billion dollars if they expect potential investors to go through this verification process.  Tezos didn't do any of this.

mwtorock

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #326 on: November 23, 2017, 08:40:44 PM »
Been in this name since 2014. The thing is you cant take Patrick's words at face value. He said on the last call he wont sell it for 10B, but I bet he will jump to it if any offer comes near half of that. Holding or re-balancing both could make sense. To me, there are two catalysts in the short term: 1) online retail - cash it out or merge it with another BM company like BBBY or Big Lots - i thought it is worth about 500m - 800m depends on synergy, but it could be more if the software indeed creates value for the buyer as Patrick states. 2) ICO - a successful ICO would no doubt increase the value of tzero. This is more speculative, but if they can raise 200m without losing any equity, Medici alone could be worth 1B. Some people say performance of bitcoin will have an impact on the ICO, which might be true wrt investor sentiment.

Overall i think short term upside of 20% -30% depends on catalysts. Long term revolutionary block chain technology plays are more vc type of investing, which is hard to value for me.

Good article here
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4127216-much-overstock

spark411

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #327 on: November 24, 2017, 04:25:43 AM »
i'm having the same issue.   I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up.   I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns.    At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price.    using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price.   very hard to decide what to do.   the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff.  hold like buffett or sell like pabrai?

Why should it trade at 1x sales?  I think it should be based on earnings alone.  I could care less about their sales if they can't make a profit.

I think 60-75% of the value of the company right now is t0.  t0 seems very speculative right now.  It could be worth billions and OSTK is still under-valued or it could be worth nothing.


I'm stealing a comment made on seekingalpha.   I agree with this analysis.  I think 1x revenues is conservative and offers  margin of safety.   Look at WMT stock after buying jet.com.    I think a company like Target or Macy's will benefit from OSTK retail business.   

jet.com sold for 3.billion. they had 1billion in revenue. ostk has 1.83 billion in revenue. zulily sold for 2.4 billion, they have less than 439million in revenue.. etsy has 2billion market cap on 397 million in revenue... what's so hard to comprehend???? someone on here just posted that otsk retail business is $17... come on guys, get a clue !

no_free_lunch

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #328 on: November 24, 2017, 06:22:37 AM »
spark, don't you think you are cherry picking?  Overstock business is not new and it is stagnant with low profits.  The share price going up seems to correlate with t0 and bitcoin.

mwtorock

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #329 on: November 24, 2017, 06:53:50 AM »
Tech acquisitions is also about the talent. Walmart paid for the management team of jet.com too, and you have seen changes on Walmart.com ever since they joined. In overstock's case, i dont know if anyone would want Patrick ;).