OSTK - Overstock.com

[DanielGMask]

I didn’t write it, just sharing the article with those who own the stock!

[KinAlberta]

Sam Antar, former CFO of Crazy Eddie says Overstock shares are highly manipulated.

https://whitecollarfraud.blogspot.com/2017/12/thanks-to-marc-cohodes-were-back-to-bad.html

Lolz, where is the data?

They see no need for data - or reason.   

It's been clear for more than a decade now that when it comes to OSTK, there are a lot of severely maladjusted, highly subjective and oh, so, so EXCEEDINGLY BORING personalities out there with never-ending vendettas against each other. Moreover the obvious and potential undisclosed vested interests just make for more such noise in the news-streams that ruin it for normal people. 

[Cevian]

jet.com had close to $1Bil of revenues when Walmart bought it for $3.3Bil.

Could a case be made that, seeing as Overstock has over $1.6Bil. of revenues, even the retail side alone is worth a bundle to a third party buyer?

I believe the current total market cap is slightly over $2.2 Bil.

[Liberty]

jet.com had close to $1Bil of revenues when Walmart bought it for $3.3Bil.

Could a case be made that, seeing as Overstock has over $1.6Bil. of revenues, even the retail side alone is worth a bundle to a third party buyer?

I believe the current total market cap is slightly over $2.2 Bil.

Comparing revenues isn't enough. How fast are those respectively growing? What kind of ROIC are they getting on the growth investments, what kind of margins could they get at a stable rate?

[Parsad]

jet.com had close to $1Bil of revenues when Walmart bought it for $3.3Bil.

Could a case be made that, seeing as Overstock has over $1.6Bil. of revenues, even the retail side alone is worth a bundle to a third party buyer?

I believe the current total market cap is slightly over $2.2 Bil.

Comparing revenues isn't enough. How fast are those respectively growing? What kind of ROIC are they getting on the growth investments, what kind of margins could they get at a stable rate?

+1!  We thought Overstock was worth around $35-$40 or 0.5 times revenue conservatively.  It's now fully-priced by the markets...forget about conservatively...and what you've been seeing is more of a mania around any blockchain potential. 

That being said, stupid money does very stupid things, and I would not be surprised to see this thing hit $130-150 per share in 2018.  It has propelled from a value-stock into something almost purely speculative now.  Remember Overstock was an $80/share stock 16 years ago, and that was based on internet mania...we saw what happened over the ensuing years. 

We've sold about 2/3rds of our position (bought at an average cost of about $14.50) starting at $35 all the way up to just under $86 today.  Don't want to take any more short-term gains, but the speculation is just on a tear!

Cheers!   

[no_free_lunch]

It seems that the current valuation can only be justified based on a very successful ICO.  I actually think that is likely given what is happening elsewhere in the crypto-space.  However, the entire process is very opaque. 

Beyond the actual process it is very difficult to find information on the terms of the ICO.  There are some press releases/interviews where Byrne mentions that the ICO will be preferrred stock in tzero, but I haven't seen any formal documentation on this.  Right now overstock owns 80% of tzero, what will be their percentage after the ICO completes?  What percentage of the profits do the tokens get and what percentage of the tokens will tzero own?  Given that it is supposed to be sec compliant, shouldn't there be filings on edgar?

[Dazel]

Congrats Sanjeev! I love to see you do well!
Do you find it somewhat strange-funny that the principle behind a lot of the hype (right or wrong I don’t know)...is Marc Cohodes the driving force behind Rocker Partners that was sued by Fairfax and Overstock? I do....he is very smart guy but it is weird.

(Please don’t respond)

All the best!

Dazel

[Parsad]

Congrats Sanjeev! I love to see you do well!
Do you find it somewhat strange-funny that the principle behind a lot of the hype (right or wrong I don’t know)...is Marc Cohodes the driving force behind Rocker Partners that was sued by Fairfax and Overstock? I do....he is very smart guy but it is weird.

(Please don’t respond)

All the best!

Dazel

Yes, the irony of all of this certainly isn't lost on me!  Overstock went from a decade of being a pariah to celebrated genius with Cohodes.  Weird!  Cheers!

[no_free_lunch]

I will answer my own question.  If anyone is looking for information on the tzero ico, they are filing it under t0 or if you prefer, CIK  0001726726.

So far they only have one filing which details the sales to date of the ICO.  There is nothing regarding terms of the deal.  Things are actually a bit slow on the ICO with only $8M raised to 46 investors.  However, I suspect this may just reflect processing delays in validating investor accreditation.

I did find in the latest conference call some mention to the ICO from Byrne.   He said that OSTK will own 60-70% of the tzero, down from 81% currently.  Based on those figures, the tzero ico would own 15-25% of tzero, with $250-300M raised.  If they are able to pull that off, that would imply a valuation of tzero at $1B-1.5B.   OSTK's share would be $600M to $1.1B.

[rkbabang]

I will answer my own question.  If anyone is looking for information on the tzero ico, they are filing it under t0 or if you prefer, CIK  0001726726.

So far they only have one filing which details the sales to date of the ICO.  There is nothing regarding terms of the deal.  Things are actually a bit slow on the ICO with only $8M raised to 46 investors.  However, I suspect this may just reflect processing delays in validating investor accreditation.

I did find in the latest conference call some mention to the ICO from Byrne.   He said that OSTK will own 60-70% of the tzero, down from 81% currently.  Based on those figures, the tzero ico would own 15-25% of tzero, with $250-300M raised.  If they are able to pull that off, that would imply a valuation of tzero at $1B-1.5B.   OSTK's share would be $600M to $1.1B.

I went through the verification process completely and was informed that from Dec 16 - Jan 16 the ICO was open to a "select group" of investors only (I did not make that cut), and Jan 16 - Feb 16 it will open to all verified accredited investors.  I was expecting to be given some type of information like a prospectus or an info packet or something, but so far I have been sent nothing.  Hopefully they will provide some details before Jan 16.  I don't know if I would invest anyway, but I certainly won't be throwing money into a black box.