Author Topic: OSTK - Overstock.com  (Read 146971 times)

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #120 on: March 09, 2012, 07:45:38 PM »
Yes, and my "Cramer Visual" is tied to the fact that the "selling fury" that they like to create inclusive of panics surrounding stocks that they're gang banging, is all structured on their intimate knowledge of how they have "rigged" the back office systems at The DTCC which the B/D's including Goldman OWN!

The travesty beyond the destruction of enterprises, economies and governments even, is the fact that the age old adage, “He Who Sells What Isn’t His’n, Must Buy It Back or Go To (Debtor’s) Prison,” said to have been made by a nineteenth century Wall Street trader, and stock operator, Daniel Drew, has been forever lost because of complicit regulators in a corrupt system taken over by Wall Street.  :(     

"Occupy Wall Street?" Send flame throwers at the men controlling the DTCC along with their miscreant hedge funds working the SCAM being aided and abetted!  >:(       
« Last Edit: March 09, 2012, 07:49:45 PM by ValueCarl »


beerbaron

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #121 on: March 09, 2012, 08:29:42 PM »
Can you tell me ValueCarl, why on earth does it matter if there is a huge amount of failed to deliver on Overstock? It blocks them the equity market, but in my opinion, a great company does not need the equity market to strive. There are plenty of private companies that generate so much cash they don't need any other.

So far, Overstock did not strive to say the least and it's not because of the shorts. Their operation was weak, first they invest way too much in IT, then they screw up their IT, then they destroy their name brand... I'm probably forgetting some other great mistakes  here but you get the idea. The shorts had nothing to do with this!

Don't get me wrong here, I admire the combat, but Mr. Byrne is not Robin Hood. Shareholder never gave him "carte blanche" to go and defend whatever illegal he is trying to defend for 16M$. That is just insane! This guy prides himself of being the servant of it's owner, but if my maid starts putting video cameras all over the house to catch the burglars that is not what I'm paying her for!

BTW... At the current price tough it seems like a good risk/reward I start a position. Thanks to those short sellers, it's trading at liquidation prices now :)

BeerBaron

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #122 on: March 09, 2012, 08:47:58 PM »
Beerbaron, are you saying the equity markets should be privatized and taken out of the hands of Wall Street? Or, is that the essence of what Wall Street along with the international banking cartels have been doing to the equity markets?

You may be onto something I have often thought about as a result of "evolution," America at her peak, and the huge participation of public capital inflows into Wall Street's game historically, i.e. us rubes.

I won't debate Dr. Byrne's actions with you, nor his perceived company failures because of what I am about to write.

That being, investors around the globe owe a great deal of gratitude, thanks and praise to this American Patriot, one whom has been treated with utter disrespect by the Inner Eye comprising Wall Street which I speak about. Other than that, I am with you to a certain extent while saying, GUT the BASTARDS and start anew, but somehow they and their minion will still come out ahead owning and controlling the precious business resources which comprise the earth.

Does this sound familiar, by the way?


Is Overstock.com in a Death Spiral?         

Hester

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #123 on: March 10, 2012, 06:34:49 AM »
That means shorts are borrowing, begging and stealing shares to short right now!  Who is lending...can only be a few people really...Fairfax, Chou, White Plains, a myriad of smaller investors?  Don't know, but that is a very big short interest.  Cheers!

I cannot see how this could possibly be true.

If shorts are really "begging" to borrow the shares, IB wouldn't have the HTB fee between 1-2%, which it was when I checked last (earlier in the week admittedly). Furthermore, when shorts are falling over themselves, it spills over into the options market, and places heavy premiums on put options. Currently (per yahoo finance) the Sep 2012 $5 puts sell for only about 70 cents, and they are pretty liquid (meaning that's a real price). An extremely heavily shorted stock would see a premium of at least a dollar for those puts, probably much more.

Compare this to a stock that is actually heavily shorted, SHLD. The Sep 2012 $75 puts (stock trading at $80) last price was $21.23, or the equivalent of about $1.40 for OSTK.

Everybody on here is overestimating just how heavily shorted Overstock is, and since generally high short interest stocks drastically underperform the market over the long term, I don't understand the giddy.

But then again short sellers are just sellers, and when a stock becomes too hard to borrow that intrinsically shuts off a certain percentage of the people who are willing to place capital at risk because of their bearish opinion. When these negative opinions can't trade in the stock, it means the stock price gets artificially inflated and hence the underperformance of most high short interest stocks.

alertmeipp

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #124 on: March 10, 2012, 07:28:07 AM »
You should check with IB how many shares are actually available. You should some of these IB inventory are from retails and thus small amount.

You compare SHLD put value with OSTK?? SHLD just had a 200% run...and OSTK just had 50% run to downside...

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #125 on: March 10, 2012, 07:56:39 AM »
That's right peter_burke_ceo, you can't have a "SHORT SQUEEZE" after a "security" has been decimated by a "SELL, SELL, SELL" ATTACK with PHANTOM, COUNTERFEITED SHARES!  >:(

Hester, I like your thinking a lot, and when I saw Overstock move up between 10-15 cents from $5.34 area to $5.45-5.48 pps on less than 8,000 possibly "double counted" Nasdaq shares--who knows the answer to that today?--I knew intuitively this stock's underlying owners have the power to give it great WING SPAN!

He with the MIND SHARE to INFLUENCE along with the PRICING POWER behind the "CURTAIN" will make price by booking it how and when "Mr. Market" sees fit!

I tried to address this with Mr. Munger directly in a recent question with specific inquiry asking him to compare the pricing of securities in the market today including HFT's to his halcyon days of "making markets" over at the Pacific Stock Exchange. My answer was confined to his own that "liquid markets" are not necessary and the writer of "algorithms" is doing the market a disservice!

If Chou and Fairfax want this stock to go down for their own purpose and desires, it will.

If that's a bet being banked by miscreants, like I told Sam, "I Am a Convicted Felon," go ahead with Dirty Harry and make their day!
   
« Last Edit: March 10, 2012, 08:14:38 AM by ValueCarl »

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #126 on: March 10, 2012, 08:06:12 AM »
peter_burke_ceo's argument is identified clearly in Dr. Byrne's tutorial on The Miscreant Ball and "The Dark Side of The Looking Glass."

The Wall Street Miscreants decide deep down inside the caverns of their CAVES hanging upside down like the BAT CRAZY BASTARDS that they are, that the business sucks, and it is their divine RIGHT to DESTROY it by HOOK or CROOK, with the CROOK part being the only way to ELIMINATE RESISTANCE!  >:(   

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #127 on: March 10, 2012, 08:12:59 AM »
If Chou or Fairfax or another group of investors are designing a DILUTION PILL in the back offices by "stock issuance", the stock price is adjusting accordingly for this imminent news item reducing IV in the form of my Pizza Pie analogy that has been stricken from this board after a SKIRMISH ensued!   

Go ahead and make their day! 

Sportgamma

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #128 on: March 10, 2012, 08:55:30 AM »
I´m a big admirer of mr. Chou and I´m trying to figure out where he sees the value in OSTK. Maybe you guys could enligthen me?

As I see it, a rough estimate of OSTK´s FCFF today is about 15m p.a. A multiple of 7 would translate to around $4.5 of value per share. OSTK would have to skim about 30m of their operating expenses to bring it to $13.5 per share on a 7-times FCFF multiple, which is about the initial price Chou payed.

Looking at the downside, about $900m of the 2011 revenue came from fulfilment partners. If sales where to drop, OSTK is not stuck with the inventory (only $23m per end of dec. 2011). What really struck my eye though was the fact that OSTK is getting better margins from the fulfilment business than from the products that they take on stock, which makes absolutelly no sense to me. Is this an accounting issue?

Another benefit that I see is the "float" aspect. On average OSTK has about $90m in accounts payables compared to about $10 in receivables.  Still, that would only correspond to about $3.80 per share. 

2011           Direct                   Fulfilment
Rev              163.609           890.668
COGS       149.660           725.529
Margin      9%                   19%

So what does Chou see that I don´t?

alertmeipp

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #129 on: March 10, 2012, 09:23:01 AM »
I think Chou is thinking scale first and cost cutting next thus improve the margin.
If they cut cost by 1% and increases their pricing by 1%, customer will still stay? but all the sudden 20m more FCF.