Author Topic: OSTK - Overstock.com  (Read 157326 times)

alertmeipp

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #160 on: March 21, 2012, 07:13:08 AM »
I expected something better.


Eric50

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #161 on: March 21, 2012, 09:52:32 AM »

Now, looking at the 2011 numbers I note that a $4.5M increase in gross profit is easily attained by a 40 basis point increase in the current gross margin which declined to 17% from 17.4% one year ago. In addition the G&A expenses where huge in 2011. Largely due to legal costs. The annual expense increased 18% or $21M yoy in 2011. While I expect legal costs to continue I would submit that its not likely to continue at this pace annually. That should allow more funds to be loosened up in the coming year.

My point being ... on $1B in revenue - the small margin improvement that I deem possible will easily pay for this and I think it's realistic to be expecting these margin improvements in 2012. I really like this idea.


Overstock is the kind of business that has razor thin margins. To be successful management has to pay permanent attention to details and be relentless in chasing any possible margin improvements. It's a never-ending battle; success is measure by the aggregation of fine tuning all the details. Amazon is doing a great job at that; they are frugal and they keep chasing every single dollar they can on their mature businesses. They have been very consistent in their execution. Had ostk been half that consistent, they would have been very successful...

That's why the stock is so cheap. The market thinks it's a horrible business while it's just a poorly managed one. With a little bit of focus and attention to details, margins could quickly improve. Hopefully the new SVP of marketing understands that... :-)

Hester

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #162 on: March 21, 2012, 10:19:00 AM »
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8491369-167470-169748&type=sect&dcn=0001047469-12-002841

Here are the outstanding financial results of Coldwater Creek during the last three years that Tim Dilworth helped them achieve.

lessthaniv

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #163 on: March 21, 2012, 10:47:24 AM »
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8491369-167470-169748&type=sect&dcn=0001047469-12-002841

Here are the outstanding financial results of Coldwater Creek during the last three years that Tim Dilworth helped them achieve.

Funny, Sam Antar just tweeted that.
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lessthaniv

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #164 on: March 21, 2012, 11:40:32 AM »
Can't attest to the accuracy but this website seems to suggest that Clearwater suffered from a rapid expansion of bricks and mortar businesses:

 The store count went from 345 in 2007 to 421 in 2010. Over the same period net sales per store (1000's) fell from $2,517 in 2007 to $1,782 in 2010. A bonehead time to expand storefronts.

Now they are in the process of rapidly closing storefronts. The 3rd quarter press release suggest they are back to around 366 storefronts with plans to close more.

I find it hard to lay blame on the marketing guy....

I also note that over the same timeframe the e-commerce sales only declined 3% while his marketing budget was essentially halved.

http://retailsails.com/monthly-sales-summary/cwtr/annual/





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txlaw

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #165 on: March 21, 2012, 12:01:38 PM »
I was intrigued by the analyst questions on the Q42011 conference call referencing internal discussions of stock buybacks using debt. I recognized that nothing is concrete. Just musings at this point. But its interesting to have a closer look at it.

I found this intriguing as well, but I hadn't done any calculations of what that might mean in terms of percentage ownership after considering a buyback of shares.

This combined with a contribution margin that "wants to be" at 12% could make things interesting.

Hester

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #166 on: March 21, 2012, 12:10:42 PM »
Can't attest to the accuracy but this website seems to suggest that Clearwater suffered from a rapid expansion of bricks and mortar businesses:

 The store count went from 345 in 2007 to 421 in 2010. Over the same period net sales per store (1000's) fell from $2,517 in 2007 to $1,782 in 2010. A bonehead time to expand storefronts.

Now they are in the process of rapidly closing storefronts. The 3rd quarter press release suggest they are back to around 366 storefronts with plans to close more.

I find it hard to lay blame on the marketing guy....

I also note that over the same timeframe the e-commerce sales only declined 3% while his marketing budget was essentially halved.

http://retailsails.com/monthly-sales-summary/cwtr/annual/

Still, I don't think it is a stretch to say ostk shareholders expected a new marketing guy with more accomplishments than, "He wasn't responsible for his previous employers ugly demise."

lessthaniv

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #167 on: March 21, 2012, 02:30:06 PM »
Can't attest to the accuracy but this website seems to suggest that Clearwater suffered from a rapid expansion of bricks and mortar businesses:

 The store count went from 345 in 2007 to 421 in 2010. Over the same period net sales per store (1000's) fell from $2,517 in 2007 to $1,782 in 2010. A bonehead time to expand storefronts.

Now they are in the process of rapidly closing storefronts. The 3rd quarter press release suggest they are back to around 366 storefronts with plans to close more.

I find it hard to lay blame on the marketing guy....

I also note that over the same timeframe the e-commerce sales only declined 3% while his marketing budget was essentially halved.

http://retailsails.com/monthly-sales-summary/cwtr/annual/

Still, I don't think it is a stretch to say ostk shareholders expected a new marketing guy with more accomplishments than, "He wasn't responsible for his previous employers ugly demise."

That is just a ridiculous comment.  You're willing to piss all over the guy within minutes of the press release (a carbon copy of Sam Antar's morning tweets) being issued and you blindly and carelessly attribute his past employers financial performance to his lack of skill ?!? The truth is you have no fricking clue what role his efforts played in the companies recent financial performance. You just saw it as an easy opportunity to take a shot a Overstock. Plain and simple.
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Parsad

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #168 on: March 21, 2012, 03:05:25 PM »
The proof is in the pudding.  Let's wait and see what changes happen, and how it drives traffic and sales.  I like where he's from, because they need someone who understands Overstock's demographic.  I'm disappointed, like others, that he came from a business that is struggling and it's hard to decipher his work against the business' results.  Like I said, let's wait and see.  Besides, having marketing out of Patrick's hands is already really good news!  Cheers! 
No man is a failure who has friends!

alertmeipp

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #169 on: March 21, 2012, 03:14:53 PM »
u guys should listen to what Patrick said about this incoming executive - gave me high hope...