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General Category => Investment Ideas => Topic started by: sculpin on May 28, 2012, 11:34:58 AM

Title: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on May 28, 2012, 11:34:58 AM
Pan Orient just announced sale of its interest in several blocks in Thailand for $162MM US net. With current cash of about $48MM they will have about $215MM cdn cash or $3.77 per share. POE currently trades at $3.45. The Company has no debt & has retained its best assets – a Thai block with production of light oil 1,000 to 1,500 bbls/d, significant Indonesian land position now being explored & a 50% interest in a heavy oil project in Canada. Whole company should easily be worth $6+ per share. The potential for a large dividend in the form of a return of capital is likely as detailed in the research note from Fraser Mackenzie (below):

From Mackie Research…
This morning, Pan Orient Energy announced the sale of its 60% operated interest in the L44/43, L33/43 and SW1 concessions in Thailand. The company will retain its other assets in Thailand, including the L53/48 (100% W.I.) concession.
Under the terms of the agreement, Pan Orient will receive a cash payment of ~US$170 million (US$162 million net of working capital) for its interest in the two concessions. Given that Pan Orient has ~56.7 million outstanding common shares, this transaction increases the company’s cash position by ~$2.86/ share.
We view this news as very positive, as Pan Orient will be able to re-invest this cash in its high working interest, high impact exploration in Indonesia and its recent discovery in the L53/48 concession in Thailand.
We maintain our BUY recommendation and our $7.00 target price.

From Fraser Mackenzie...

Pan Orient – POE – Beats on cash flow, 1,358 bopd in Thailand (L53) and continued drilling problems at Jatay-1 (POE:TSX)
   Pan Orient announced EPS of $0.14 relative to consensus $0.12 (18.7m in funds flow more than double Q4)
   On March 31st POE had $48.5m in w/c with NO long term debt (near $0.80 cents a share in cash!)
   So the cash from the deal (expected close of mid June) – is $2.86
   W/C - $0.80 per shares (at 48.5m)
   L53 concession at 20k per flowing barrel is worth approximately $1/share
   Exploration update (undeveloped locations), Vic Vallance says conservatively is worth $15m or $0.26 cents per share
   Indonesia (which includes 4 large concessions Citarum, Batu Gajah, East Jabung and South CPP) is conservatively worth $6m or $0.10 cents per share
   Ultimately this all adds up to a $5.02 on a company currently trading at $3.47 or less than the cash they will have upon closing.
   Happy to risk it but POE should be trading north of $4.
   The company will go through a process to decide what to do with the money but after discussions with them we believe there is an intention to special dividend out some or all of the money from the transaction.
   We believe the buyer is a very large over $2b company, management will not disclose whom they are until the transaction is closed
   Indonesia though continues to have its difficulties has encountered some gas and will re-drill vertically
   In this market these defensive type plays are where the opportunity lays, get paid to wait and we believe there is a higher reward to risk ratio for risk appetite to come back into the market.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on July 17, 2012, 01:44:07 PM
Since last posting POE has declared a $0.75/share dividend and looks to have discovered a significant natural gas find in Indonesia - "suggesting a possible gas column of 390 feet that the company appears yet to have encountered the base of." Share price has moved from $3.45 to the current $4.20 level.

"The company has also announced it plans to pay a 75-cent-per-share special distribution to shareholders of approximately $42.5-million in early September, 2012, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval."

"Since the last operations update, the Jatuyu-1 well was drilled to a depth of approximately 5,920 feet true vertical depth (TVD). Strong overpressure estimated at approximately 600 pounds per square inch and extremely high mud gas readings of up to 80 per cent were observed between approximately 5,530 and 5,920 feet TVD with difficulty maintaining adequate mud weight from 5,631 feet due to the influx of gas. This section drilled was interbedded sandstone and shale with an inferred gas column based on the mud log data of approximately 390 feet. Some of the best gas shows were encountered at the bottom of the drilled section. While conducting a wiper trip from 5,920 feet the drill string became stuck and was backed off to 5,300 feet TVD.

After sidetracking, the well was drilled to a depth of approximately 5,500 feet TVD and seven-inch casing was set just above the interval where high mud gas and overpressure was encountered in the previous well bore. The company will be drilling ahead through the zone of high mud gas readings starting within the next 24 hours and stop drilling at approximately 6,000 feet TVD to log the well. A decision to continue drilling an additional 1,700 feet down to the main Parigi reservoir target will be made after the analysis of the wireline logs. The possibility exists that the company may decide to stop drilling and immediately test the well.

The company is very encouraged by: 1) the indications of gas and reservoir it has observed in this well thus far, and 2) the fact it was still drilling within sands with high mud gas readings at 5,920 feet TVD when the drill pipe became stuck, suggesting a possible gas column of 390 feet that the company appears yet to have encountered the base of."
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on July 17, 2012, 01:55:55 PM
http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/co/1251#quote

TER: Shifting gears to Pan Orient, you recently spoke to some investors earlier this summer who were surprised when you told them the company had a producing field that could be scaled up in a short period of time, significantly mitigating cash burn. Why is this development flying under the radar?

CL: Pan Orient's stock had a lot of wild swings in the past a few years, and it doesn't have a strong shareholder base, much like Mart's earlier days. This means a small rumor could crush the share price and there are all kinds of false perceptions about the company. However, I believe as the management continues to execute, much of the misperception will gradually go away.

TER: On May 23, Pan Orient agreed to sell its 60% interest in its Thailand concessions, from which it would net about $162M. The stock rebounded dramatically, and has held its gains. What does this asset sale mean for the company?

CL: It means that the company is trading at the cash level. All the rest of the assets, which the company has been accumulating for the past five years, are "free" to investors. That includes Batu Gajah, the crown jewel of the company. Pan Orient holds 50% of the concession. PetroChina holds the other 50%, currently producing about 50,000–60,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with pipelines and all the other infrastructure in place. The company is planning to start drilling Batu Gajah in two to three months.

It is amazing how cheap Pan Orient is right now. It will also be drilling about 10 wells in the next 12 months. Each well costs a few million dollars to drill, but the upside is it would add $2–3 to the dividend if successful. In terms of risk-reward, there are no other companies like Pan Orient. It is still one of my largest positions.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on July 18, 2012, 03:53:50 PM
Hi Sculpin,

Were you holding before the sale announcement?

What gives you so much confidence about management and how the rest of their cash will be used? In their last press release, they talk about $186 million in cash. Is it proforma the $75 million distribution? If not where has been employed the $40 million or so?

What do you think they can earn with their remaining producing assets?

Thanks
Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on July 19, 2012, 07:02:13 AM
Hi Cardboard - Yes I was holding & adding to POE in the $2 range before the announcement. After the announcement, I bought more in the $3.15 to $3.50 range as I did not see any other investment with such a favourable margin of safety (trading well below net working capital) & possessing numerous catalysts that could substantially add to shareholder value:

** potential for a large dividend - which was announced as $0.75/per share
** monetization of its oil sand assets ( 114.4 million barrels attributed to the 53.4% ownership interest of Pan Orient & net present value of resources of $327 million to the 53.4% ownership interest of Pan Orient)
** further development & exploration upside of its 100% owned L53 block in Thailand which already has productive capacity of over 1,000 bbls/d
** high impact exploration in Indonesia with relatively low drilling costs compared to the size of the prize in all 4 blocks POE owns there.

Purchasing below cash, one received all of these other assets for free. Even now with the $1 upward move in the share price an investor is paying very little for what could be $10+/share upside in these assets.  Indonesian has drill targets that could alone could add that much value to Pan Orient's equity upon discovery.

Currently the Company has $186 million in free cash with positive working capital and escrowed cash adding up to around the $200MM level. Approximately $42 will go to the dividend & anywhere from $13 to $25 MM will go to fund the oil sand pilot project. Cash flow from L53 should be anywhere from $25MM to $40MM assuming annual production of 1,000 bbls/d to 1,500 bbls/d - this should fund all of Thai & Indonesian cap ex.

Any other questions or comments, feel free to ask.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on July 20, 2012, 06:36:31 AM
POE Overview from Mackie Research:

PAN ORIENT ENERGY (POE-V, BUY, TARGET $6.50)

Pan Orient recently monetized its interest in three of its mature concessions in Thailand for net
proceeds of US$162 million. The company plans to pay a special distribution of $0.75/share or ~$42.5
million in September 2012, subject to shareholder approval. Following the distribution, the company
remains very well capitalized to fund its aggressive exploration program on its 3 million net acres in
Indonesia and the recent L53D discovery on its L53 concession in Thailand. Additionally, the
company holds an interest in the Sawn lake heavy oil project through its majority owned subsidiary
Andorra.
Recent Events:
 January 23, 2012: Places the L53-D2 well in Indonesia on a 90 day test at a restricted rate of 1,015
bbl/d with a 0.1% water cut.
 February 14, 2012: Announces that the Cataka-1 exploration well in Indonesia encountered severe
drilling difficulties and was abandoned after 400 metres of drilling. Pan Orient plans to return
and drill a twin to the well after drilling another well on the block.
 February 27, 2012: Puts the L53-DST3 well on production at 1,200 bbl/d from an offsetting
location and separate interval from the L53-D2 well.
 May 28, 2012: Intercepts a potential gas zone in a secondary target of the Jatayu-1 well on the
Citarum block (77% W.I.). Unfortunately the pipe became stuck before reaching TD and was
plugged back to the casing shoe before resuming drilling vertically.
 June 18, 2012: Closes the sale of its 60% operated interest in the L44/43, L33/43 and SW1
concessions in Thailand. In exchange for its interest in the concessions, Pan Orient receives a cash
payment of US$170 million (US$162 net of working capital and taxes).
 June 25, 2012: Announces plans to pay a $0.75/share Special Distribution to shareholders equating
to ~$42.5 million, subject to shareholder approval, and with a date of record likely in September
2012.
 July 9, 2012: Announces encouraging indications during drilling of the Jatuyu-1 exploration well
in the Citarum block (77% W.I.). The well encountered a 390 foot section of inter-bedded
sandstone and shale, which the company plans log. With positive results, POE will immediately
test the well. Additionally, announces that it will take part in a $25 million rights offering for
Andora Energy to fund a pilot project on the Sawn Lake Heavy Oil asset.

Upcoming Catalysts:

 Additional drilling and testing results from L53 discovery (August)

 Receipt of production license at L53-East (August)

 Results from Jatayu-1 exploration well (August)

 Shareholder meeting to approve $0.75/share cash Special Distribution (September)

 Commence SAGD pilot project for Sawn Lake
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on May 25, 2016, 07:10:39 PM
Resurrecting the POE thread. No debt and about 65% of market cap in cash. Oil prices rebounding which should place decent value on the Sawn Lake oilsands property and production in Thailand. The drill of the Angunn prospect in Indonesia by Repsol in Q4 could be the Company maker.

One Canadian junior remains as cheerful as ever in Asia. Pan Orient Energy Corp. (POE), up five cents to $1.37 on 17,900 shares, is looking forward to its exploration programs later this year in Indonesia and Thailand. The company also has an interest in the Sawn Lake bitumen project in the Alberta oil sands, but operations there were suspended in February because of low prices. As prices recover, Pan Orient's cheerleaders will certainly start to chant about Alberta again, but for now their pom-poms are thoroughly emblazoned with Indonesia and Thailand -- particularly Indonesia, where Pan Orient has a joint venture with Repsol's Talisman Energy at the East Jabung project. Talisman agreed in 2014 to acquire a 51-per-cent interest in East Jabung by paying $8-million (U.S.) upfront and carrying Pan Orient for the first $10-million (U.S.) of work. That should be enough to fully cover the first exploration well, which is expected to be spudded in the fourth quarter of this year. Besides East Jabung, Pan Orient holds 77 per cent of the Batu Gajah block in Indonesia, where it is seeking more joint venturers. Meanwhile, in Thailand, Pan Orient produced a net 269 barrels of oil a day in the first quarter from its 50.01-per-cent-owned L53 concession and says it might do some exploration drilling there this year or in early 2017.

The above assumes that Pan Orient will actually keep all those assets. According to newsletter writer Chen Lin, who gave an interview this month to The Energy Report (sister newsletter to The Gold Report, The Mining Report and The Life Sciences Report), Pan Orient is looking to sell all of its assets except the one that will be explored by Talisman. If it can close the sales, it should have about $2 a share in cash, up from the current level of 75 cents, calculated Mr. Lin. He added that if Talisman makes a discovery at East Jabung, "[Pan Orient's] share price will obviously explode," and if Talisman fails, Pan Orient can still reward shareholders by distributing any asset sale proceeds, as it has previously done in 2012 and earlier this year. Therefore, Pan Orient has "almost no downside," declared Mr. Lin
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on February 03, 2017, 11:36:40 AM
Is There a Better Asymmetric Investment Play in E&P Land Than Pan Orient (POE - TSX - $1.30)?

Playing the slots for $15 for $1 payoff with 25% COS and almost certain to get your dollar back…

For Pan Orient there is a very important catalyst coming up in the drilling of a well in Indonesia that is being fully funded by global super major Repsol in the next 3 months. The upside potential dwarfs any downside in the short term and over the longer term the value of POE is likely in excess of the current market value of the Company today even without this Indonesian well.

The way to look at this is what do we get for our $1.30 current value (market price) in POE…

Cash (no debt) $0.86/share
Thailand asset $0.24 (570,000 bbls oil P&P)
SAGD asset $4.15 (option on $70+ oil pricing (see below #1))
Angunn well $0 to $11+ (outcome of Repsol well #2 below)

Total potential upside —– $16+
Total potential downside — perhaps trade in short term to cash value. Most likely POE would be broken up & sold on Angunn failure. SOTP > $1.30


#1……Canada – Sawn Lake: On September 26th, 2016, POE announced the results of an -updated NI 51-101 compliant contingent resource estimate for the Sawn Lake SAGD project in Alberta. The unrisked “Best Case” contingent resource estimate increased by 8% to 166.3 million barrels net to POE’s 71.8% interest with the NPV (10% dcf) on an after-tax bases increased by 26% to $228 million ($4.15/sh). The Sawn Lake SAGD project represents significant longer term upside but will require higher oil prices before development.

Successful Demonstration Project In late 2013, the operators drilled one SAGD well pair to a vertical depth of 650 metres and with a horizon section of 780 metres within the Bluesky formation. Steam injection commenced on May 21, 2014 with first bitumen production commencing on September 16, 2014. Over a 17 month period, bitumen production continually increased and the steam to oil ratio continuously decreased. In January and February 2016, bitumen production reached a steady state average rate of 615 bbl/d with cumulative steam-oil ratio (“CSOR “) of 2.1. Although the final production test results of the Sawn Lake SAGD pilot project are impressive, the demonstration project was suspended at the end of February 2016 due to low oil prices.

#2…….EAST JABUNG, INDONESIA –HIGH-IMPACT EXPLORATION PLANNED FOR Q1/17 Background: On June 1, 2015, POE completed a farmout agreement with a subsidiary of Talisman Energy Inc. (now a subsidiary of Repsol). POE transferred an operated 51% interest in the East Jabung block to Talisman (“the Operator”), in return of a US$8 million cash payment, the funding of the first US$10 million of the cost of the first exploration well as well as funding the first US$5 million of the cost of a contingent appraisal well, if the first well is successful.

POE retains a 49% non-operated working interest in the East Jabung PSC. Drilling to commence in Q1/17: Construction of the access road and drilling pad is expected to commence late December. The Ayu-1 exploration well is expected to spud in late Q1/17 and will be drilled to a total depth of ~1,500 metres. The well is targeting the company maker Anggun prospect. Large Resource Potential: Gaffney Cline & Associates completed a NI 51-101 compliant Prospective Resource Report for the Anggun effective June 30, 2015 (Figure 1). The Anggun prospect has three potential reservoir targets; the Intra Air Benakat formation, the Gumai Formation and the Batu Raja Fromation. All three horizons hold large resource potential with a geological chance of success ranging from 11% to 26%.

As shown in the presentation below, POE has various chances with 3 different reservoirs in this prospect. The outcome as modelled by the reservoir engineer provides an outcome listed to POE’s net interest as follows: Low 16.2mm bbls, Best 73mm bbls and High 417mm bbls. My guess it will either be $0 outcome or possibly the mean of the engineer estimates. For a company with a market cap of $72mm and EV of about $26mm this is an extraordinary option! Even the mean outcome of 123mm bbls at a conservative $5 bbl reserve value would be worth over $11 per share to little POE. If it is 0 bbls this is disappointing and there is likely some short term selling and price weakness. However the Company would remain worth more than the current share price on a break up or sale.

http://www.panorient.ca/images/stories/file/Pan_Orient_Presentation_June_15_2016.pdf
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: wachtwoord on February 03, 2017, 12:52:22 PM
Very interesting. Based on admittedly extremely shallow research I opened a small position (<1%) purely based on odds and EV based on a situation I only understand at a shallow level.

I will do more reading, thanks for sharing the idea.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on February 03, 2017, 01:00:06 PM
Best of luck to both of us. I will attach a report (should be pdf at bottom of this reply) from the only analyst that covers this Company. Newman at Mackie Research in Canada. Here is the summary:

November 17, 2016

PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP. – BUY


High Impact Well To Spud in Q1/17

ACTION – Maintain BUY On Indonesia Exploration Upside

POE has a strong balance sheet with no debt and $50 million of net positive working
capital. We maintain our BUY recommendation and $3.25 target price on POE’s strong
financial position and high-impact exploration potential in Indonesia.

DETAILS – Q3/16 Financial & Operational Results

Indonesia – East Jabung PSC (49% W.I.): Construction of a 5 km road and drilling pad is
expected to commence December which should be followed by the drilling of the Ayu-1
exploration well in late Q1/17 targeting the 250 million barrel Anggun prospect (Figure
1). The first US$10 million of the cost of the exploration well will be funded by POE’s
farm-in partner.

Indonesia - Batu Gajah PSC (77% W.I.): Following the drilling of the Akeh-1 natural gas
and condensate discovery well, POE applied for an additional exploration period beyond
the stated January 15, 2017 expiry date. A decision by the Government of Indonesia on the
status of the application is expected prior to year-end. Without an extension, POE may
allow the block to expire before drilling the Akeh-2 commitment well. Note that we have
$0.16/sh risked value for the Akeh discovery in our risked NAV estimate.

Thailand – L53/48 Concession (50.01% W.I.): As previously announced, average Q3/16
production in Thailand was 236 bbl/d net to POE. Production in October was up slightly
averaging 303 bbl/d, subsequent to a successful five well workover program. As
previously announced, the ANE-A1 exploration well encountered high quality reservoir
but failed to encounter commercial hydrocarbons. POE plans to announce additional
exploration plans on the L53/48 concession prior to year-end.

Canada – Sawn Lake: On September 26th, 2016, POE announced the results of an -updated
NI 51-101 compliant contingent resource estimate for the Sawn Lake SAGD project in
Alberta. The unrisked “Best Case” contingent resource estimate increased by 8% to 166.3
million barrels net to POE’s 71.8% interest with the NPV (10% dcf) on an after-tax bases
increased by 26% to $228 million ($4.15/sh). The Sawn Lake SAGD project represents
significant longer term upside but will require higher oil prices before development. We
have no value in our risked NAV for Sawn Lake.

IMPACT – Neutral. Financial Flexibility And a Carried Exploration Program

 We maintain our BUY recommendation and our $3.25 on POE’s strong financial position
and the potential of the high impact Ayu-1 well in Indonesia.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: paperwerks on February 03, 2017, 04:16:03 PM
Thanks for writing this up.

Yes, it is true. 10 bagger potential with limited downside and it is all going to play out over the next few months.

This is a big position for me and the stock has been dead money for many years while we waited for this well to be drilled.

It almost seems unfair that new buyers today can take advantage of this opportunity right now and only have to wait a month or two for drilling as opposed to us who have been waiting many years.

In that respect POE is similar to fnma situation today

The stock is illiquid and soon speculation will begin as people try to pile in before drilling results are out.

Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: moustachio on February 04, 2017, 08:26:18 AM
Looks like this one is worth a position! Thank you sculpin.

Is There a Better Asymmetric Investment Play in E&P Land Than Pan Orient (POE - TSX - $1.30)?

While I don't know about "better", I do have a somewhat similar situation with drilling already started. East West Petroleum has an interest in Romania. The cost of drilling the wells is being fully carried by their working interest partner NIS. Here is a quote from that thread:
Quote
The other asset is four blocks comprising a million gross acres in Romania. EW completed a farm out agreement with Naftna Industrija Srbije(majority owned by Gazprom) as the operator. EW is fully carried for a 12 well phase 1 exploration(3 per block), and for another 3 optional per block for a potential phase 2. They have a 15% working interest in Romania.

Check out the thread I started a couple years ago which is somewhat outdated, but gives a bit of an overview and an update. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ew-v-ewpmf-east-west-petroleum/

Maybe there are even more of these microcaps out there and we can build a whole basket.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Paarslaars on February 04, 2017, 10:18:59 AM
Very interesting. Based on admittedly extremely shallow research I opened a small position (<1%) purely based on odds and EV based on a situation I only understand at a shallow level.

I will do more reading, thanks for sharing the idea.

Same here.

Since I believe you are dutch, did you buy PNO (FRA:DE) instead?
I'm getting taxed less on the german stock exchanges (in belgium) than the canadian ones and it avoids any valuta risk.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: valcont on February 04, 2017, 11:28:14 AM
Nice find Sculpin, I like that Talisman is picking up the tab for the drilling costs but:

What do you think about their cancellation of Batu Gajah PSC and a $102m impairment charge on Jan'12 recently? That prospect seemed promising last year after the Lemang discovery. Batu Gajah is not too far from East Jabung.

Do you know of any other oil/gas findings near East Jabung? I couldn't find any.

BTW Bill Newman is a perma bull on this name. He was bullish on Batu Gajah 2 years ago, his report seems like a copy'n'paste with the name of exploration fields changed.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: wachtwoord on February 04, 2017, 12:06:18 PM
Very interesting. Based on admittedly extremely shallow research I opened a small position (<1%) purely based on odds and EV based on a situation I only understand at a shallow level.

I will do more reading, thanks for sharing the idea.

Same here.

Since I believe you are dutch, did you buy PNO (FRA:DE) instead?
I'm getting taxed less on the german stock exchanges (in belgium) than the canadian ones and it avoids any valuta risk.

Cool didn't know it was traded there. As a Dutch (tax) citizen I don't pay taxes on trading profits.

Additionally, there is no valuta risk difference (they both represent a share in the same company, no matter the ticker currency).  Finally, for non-North American exchanges often the wrong dividend tax amount is withheld in my experience (as recently with Wilhelmsen from Norway which withheld 25% instead of 15) so I prefer North American exchanges. The venture exchange does have relatively high trading fees (but so do the Euronext exchanges so that's sort of the same).
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Paarslaars on February 04, 2017, 01:34:10 PM
My bad, meant broker fee's not tax, tax is only relevent to dividend and that is not the play here.
For me broker fee's are substantially higher on canadian stocks than german ones though (Degiro).

Put in an order as well, downside seems limited so I might add to this in the upcoming months before drilling results are out.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on February 05, 2017, 09:37:26 AM
Nice find Sculpin, I like that Talisman is picking up the tab for the drilling costs but:

What do you think about their cancellation of Batu Gajah PSC and a $102m impairment charge on Jan'12 recently? That prospect seemed promising last year after the Lemang discovery. Batu Gajah is not too far from East Jabung.

Do you know of any other oil/gas findings near East Jabung? I couldn't find any.

BTW Bill Newman is a perma bull on this name. He was bullish on Batu Gajah 2 years ago, his report seems like a copy'n'paste with the name of exploration fields changed.

Yes Batu Gajah was disappointing. Don't believe they can even use the losses there against future potential cash flows from Jabung. At any rate, this prospect is now a sunk cost & not a factor in the go forward case for POE.

As for East Jabung, look at page 7 in the presentation. The Jabung area is host to a good track record of oil & natural gas discoveries. Many of significant size. Petro China has been very active & successful. There is more detail on their web site but below is a snippet from their ops in this area....

From January 1997 to December 2014, Jabung Block totally produced 241.3 MBOE of oil, condensate and gas due to PetroChina’s long-term investment facilities and processing plants, as well as in persistent explorations for new hydrocarbon sources. In 2014, the average production of Jabung block stood at 56,000 BOEPD.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: SharperDingaan on February 05, 2017, 12:11:37 PM
Sculpin: Thanks for bringing this to the board.

It's early stages yet, but for us there are two things here that bother the hell out of us.

The head office is located in Indonesia, it trades on the TSE as a venture stock, & there's almost no volume. Touch this in any kind of meaningful way & it's going to drive up price in a big way; even with multiple bidders doing everything they can to ensure as light a touch as possible. Indonesia doesn't have the best reputation either, and Bre-X keeps springing to mind.

Assume they hit an elephant; do we really think they'll be able to keep it? - or is it more likely there's an 'arrangement'. Again this is Indonesia, and this thing had history with Talisman. If there is an 'arrangement', isn't it more pragmatic  to be with Repsol as the bigger player?

We wish everybody luck, but for now we're probably going to just wait and see how this develops.
It may turn out great, but we see a lot of flags.

SD
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: valcont on February 06, 2017, 09:04:34 AM
Sculpin: Thanks for bringing this to the board.

It's early stages yet, but for us there are two things here that bother the hell out of us.

The head office is located in Indonesia, it trades on the TSE as a venture stock, & there's almost no volume. Touch this in any kind of meaningful way & it's going to drive up price in a big way; even with multiple bidders doing everything they can to ensure as light a touch as possible. Indonesia doesn't have the best reputation either, and Bre-X keeps springing to mind.

Assume they hit an elephant; do we really think they'll be able to keep it? - or is it more likely there's an 'arrangement'. Again this is Indonesia, and this thing had history with Talisman. If there is an 'arrangement', isn't it more pragmatic  to be with Repsol as the bigger player?

We wish everybody luck, but for now we're probably going to just wait and see how this develops.
It may turn out great, but we see a lot of flags.

SD

The company's head office is located in Calgary,Alberta. I think you are referring to the subsidiaries in Indonesia and Thailand. Its very common for the mining companies to open subs in the host
country.

http://www.sedar.com/DisplayProfile.do?lang=EN&issuerType=03&issuerNo=00009731

What do you mean by the 'arrangement'? They have transferred the 51% stake to Talisman to operate and develop the prospect. Additionally the PSC agreement entitles the Indonesian government  a 65% stake.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on March 04, 2017, 09:47:46 PM
Did This Geologist Just Pinpoint This Decade’s Biggest Natural Gas Discovery?
By PiercePoints on March 4, 2017 7:47 pm

http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/03/biggest-natural-gas-discovery/?all=1
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: wachtwoord on March 31, 2017, 04:23:35 AM
News from last week but they chose to let Batu Gajah expire and are planning to execute Ayu-1 in the end of April. http://boereport.com/2017/03/23/pan-orient-energy-corp-2016-year-end-financial-operating-results/
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on June 16, 2017, 11:57:02 AM
New 52 week high today in an absolutely brutal energy market. Indonesian drill finally coming this Summer! Also new presentation....

http://www.panorient.ca/images/stories/file/Pan_Orient_Presentation_June_13_2017.pdf



Pan Orient operator to begin drilling AYU-1 well July 5

2017-06-13 16:36 ET - News Release
Shares issued 54,885,407
POE Close 2017-06-13 C$ 1.58


Mr. Jeff Chisholm reports

PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP.: OPERATIONS AND CORPORATE UPDATE

Pan Orient Energy Corp. has provided an operations and corporate update.

Indonesia

East Jabung production sharing contract (Pan Orient: 49-per-cent ownership and non-operator)

The operator of the East Jabung PSC has advised that the drilling of the AYU-1 exploration well is anticipated to commence on or about July 5, 2017.

Corporate

Shareholders will be able to access the June 13, 2017, Pan Orient annual and special meeting presentation on the company's website.

About Pan Orient Energy Corp.

Pan Orient is a Calgary-based oil and gas exploration and production company with operations currently located onshore Thailand, Indonesia and in Western Canada.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on July 04, 2017, 07:15:04 AM
Start of drilling imminent or tomorrow!

This thing has mega potential and limited downside. If they hit a good well this could be massive or just like Niko used to be in India or Bre-X Minerals.

Bre-X is interesting because they were also in Indonesia and backed by a major or Barrick Gold. However, they tampered the samples to make it look like that there was lots of gold while there was nothing or a complete fraud.

This time around we have Repsol drilling or doing the exploration, funding most of the well cost and being the operator. No lie will come out of this. With oil at these prices you would think that they have some reason to believe that this has large potential to be spending $10 million U.S. on an exploratory well in the jungle.

Cardboard 
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on July 04, 2017, 09:53:13 AM
One thing I like about this is that the upside far outweighs the downside and the company seems to have some real assets. But in the end it is a gamble. If nothing else it will be entertaining.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: lessthaniv on July 04, 2017, 11:30:46 AM
I've built a position in POE patiently over the last year. Asymmetric bet. Even if the outcome in East Jabung doesn't pan out, the cash and other assets will support the intrinsic value of the stock and limit the downside from my ACB. Speculative bet for sure, but good odds ... had to push in some chips.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: valcont on July 04, 2017, 03:18:20 PM
Not an exploration expert but when I look at the third party prospect report , it says the chance of success for the East Jabung is 20%.

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/pan-orient-energy-corp-prospective-resource-report-anggun-prospect-indonesia-tsx-venture-poe-2044765.htm

Is that considered decent? Here is a good read about Chance of Success and how to think about expected value. At p.21 , you'll find 20-30% is the normal
COS for these kind of wells.

http://www.ccop.or.th/ppm/document/CAWS4/Risk%20and%20Exploration%20economy.pdf

Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on August 28, 2017, 08:36:28 AM
https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPOE-2499020&symbol=POE&region=C

Sounds very promising to me as they are preparing to start drilling already the 2nd well to meet the November 21 commitment deadline before testing is even finished on the 1st well!

Repsol would not spend a dime on this unless early indications from the 1st well mean a lot. They would at best finish testing on the 1st well before doing anything else considering that time is not an issue.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Sunrider on August 28, 2017, 09:52:13 AM
Hmm Cardboard, I'm not sure I read this note right, but did they stop drilling the first well or is it going to go deeper. I may have a completely wrong understanding here, but surely if the well struck meaningful oil or gas they'd know by know because it'd be coming to the surface, either from its own pressure or as part of the drilling fluid flowback?

I understand your enthusiasm but, unless I'm wrong re the above, or they are not complete with that well yet, it would seem that this first well is not a 'gusher'?

Thank you - C.


https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPOE-2499020&symbol=POE&region=C

Sounds very promising to me as they are preparing to start drilling already the 2nd well to meet the November 21 commitment deadline before testing is even finished on the 1st well!

Repsol would not spend a dime on this unless early indications from the 1st well mean a lot. They would at best finish testing on the 1st well before doing anything else considering that time is not an issue.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on August 28, 2017, 12:10:49 PM
I never said that the 1st well was a gusher. I am not a geologist but, it is not a dry hole either. However, I think that I know how to follow the money.

We know that Repsol was crystal clear that if drilling of the 1st well was disappointing that there would be no further testing on that well or a 20 some day period. Packing and going home!

Now instead of testing that well, they are going right away for a more expensive option or the drilling of a 2nd well. This was not the plan. It seems to indicate that they know already enough about that well and that they have enough confidence to commit further spending on that play.

The 1st well indicates that there are hydrocarbons in that area. The biggest risk for that stock was a dry hole and this is gone. Now, the question is how much oil & gas is there and is it economic to exploit?

I think it is very positive. Especially so considering that energy is still priced very low and that a large company like Repsol will allocate its capital very carefully in such environment. If they had not liked what they saw on the 1st hole, their commitment was over and they could have walked away. However, they didn't.

Cardboard 
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on August 28, 2017, 12:14:43 PM
Malcolm Shaw opinion
http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog.html


By: Malcolm Shaw

(Disclosure: The following represents my opinions only. I am not receiving any compensation for writing this article, nor does Hydra Capital have any business relationship with companies mentioned in this post. I am long POE.V)

In the oil exploration game, it's other never as simple as you might want it to be. Pan Orient Energy (last at C$1.81) released a drilling update on the much anticipated AYU-1X well and it would appear that the 'anticipation' is going to last a little longer as results were encouraging, but don't appear to be a clear-cut success. Preliminary analysis suggests that the well found "5.5 metres of high porosity net oil pay at the top of good quality reservoir in the Batu Raja limestone", which was the primary target interval in the well. That interpretation is supported by wireline logs, pressure data, and oil samples, so that's about as much confirmation as you're ever going to get without a flow test. Pan Orient went on to say that, "significant indications of hydrocarbons in the form of oil shows and high gas readings in well-developed sands of Gumai age were also found". That might mean that Pan Orient is close to something of interest in the secondary Gumai-age target interval, or it might mean that oil has simply swept through the structure at that level.

The well reached a total depth at 1,140 metres in granitic basement an August 21st, which was about 400 meters shy of the projected total depth as indicated on the drill curve in the company's corporate presentation. To me, that suggests that the structural interpretation was off by a fair bit, as the well was TD'd before the projected top of the Batu Raja (which was pre-drill estimated to be at 1,200m depth). It's unclear what implications that may have for the greater structural complex.

Based on the results of the AYU-1X well, the partners have elected to drill a sidetrack (ELOK-1X) to a subsurface location about 700 metres south where they aim to evaluate a possible thick wedge of Lower Talang Akar sandstones that are on-lapping the AYU-1X high and thus could be oil charged. The well is expected to take 30 days to drill.

So what does it all mean? For one, the presence of oil in highly porous Batu Raja limestone is a very good thing. It means that the development of reservoir in the Batu Raja interval has been proven and that oil has migrated into it. However, 5.5 metres of porous limestone may or may not cut it in the jungles of Indonesia. I ran some quick math on 5.5 metres of oil pay assuming 25% porosity, 75% oil saturation, and 30% recovery and I can end up in the ballpark of 3-5 mmbbls recoverable per square mile. That may or may not work, depending on a number of factors, including development costs and the prevalence of porous Batu Raja limestone in the area. It also remains to be seen where thicker Batu Raja oil pay might be found, if anywhere, in the greater structural complex. In a nutshell, I would say that more information is needed via updated mapping and/or additional drilling.

However, if the Lower Talang Akar sands are found to be both thick and oil-charged in the ELOK-1X sidetrack, the odds of commercial success are likely going to look a lot better. Just 30 more days of waiting... here's hoping they find a nice thick section of oil-charged Lower Talang Akar sands.

In the meantime, investors are left on edge again, waiting for more data. I have sold some of my stock this morning (for a small gain relative to my most recent purchase price of $1.60) in order to reduce my risk as the hopes of a thick Batu Raja oil hit on the first well is off the table, but I'm definitely keeping one foot in the door should the ELOK-1X sidetrack come up with the goods. In light of the oil pay encountered in the Batu Raja limestone, I would imagine that the partners will also be trying to find thicker Batu Raja reservoir in a structurally favourable position... surely that will be one of the topics at the upcoming partner meeting.

Stay tuned.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on September 11, 2017, 11:15:52 AM
Down another 9+% today.  I just purchased some more.  I don't understand the way this has been trading the last few weeks.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on September 11, 2017, 12:03:01 PM
Same here on both counts.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Paarslaars on September 11, 2017, 12:17:54 PM
Doubled my small position but I've had nothing but wrong calls this year.  :P
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on September 18, 2017, 09:18:33 AM
No new information, but a good summary of the current situation.

Small-Cap Oil & Gas Companies Positioned for a Market Rebound (http://www.streetwisereports.com/pub/na/small-cap-oil-gas-companies-positioned-for-a-market-rebound)

Quote
TER: Can you update us on Pan Orient Energy Corp. (POE:TSX.V) (https://www.streetwisereports.com/pub/co/1251)?

BN: A few weeks ago, Pan Orient drilled a high impact exploration well on its East Jabung block (49% W.I.) in Indonesia. Recall that in 2015, Pan Orient farmed-out 51% of its 100% interest in East Jabung to a subsidiary of Talisman Energy Inc. (now a subsidiary of Repsol). In return, Pan Orient received an US$8 million cash payment and Repsol funded the first US$10 million of the cost of the AYU-1X exploration well. In late August the AYU-1X well was drilled to a total depth of 1,140 meters and encountered 5.5 meters of net oil pay within the Batu Raja formation, which was the primarily target. Although the net pay is thin, the reservoir was thicker than expected.

The AYU-1X well also encountered good oil shows in well-developed sands in the Gumai formation, which was the secondary target. AYU-1X well location was selected to target the Batu Raja and so it wasn’t an optimal location for the Gumai formation. A more optimal location for the Gumai formation is located to the north on what’s called the Anggun structure. We think it’s highly likely that the Anggun structure will get drilled next year, after the construction of a new drilling location. In the meantime, the joint venture partners are currently drilling the ELOK-1X sidetrack from the AYU-1X wellbore targeting Lower Talang Akar sandstone, which laps onto the AYU high. Drilling could be completed by the end of September and will qualify as the second commitment well, so it will complete the first phase exploration well commitments for the East Jabung block.

So, to sum up: the AUY-1X exploration well encountered thicker than expected reservoir in both the Batu Raja limestone and the Gumai sands and proved hydrocarbon charge into the Ayu/Elok/Anggun complex, which was the largest pre-drill risk. The ELOK-1X sidetrack well is a high-risk well but will fulfill the first phase drilling commitments on the East Jabung block and next year we expect Pan Orient will drill the Anggun prospect, which has been somewhat de-risked by the results of the AUY-1X well. If successful we see big upside for the stock price.

TER: Thank you for your time, Bill.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on October 11, 2017, 06:33:31 AM
Pan Orient Energy Corp.: ELOK-1X Drilling Update (https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/10/11/1144341/0/en/Pan-Orient-Energy-Corp-ELOK-1X-Drilling-Update.html)

"The East Jabung Production Sharing Contract (“PSC”) ELOK-1X exploration well has reached a total depth of 1,236 meters true vertical depth ("TVD") within weathered granitic basement at a sub-surface location approximately 700 meters southwest of the AYU-1X location.

The top of the primary Talang Akar formation sandstone objective (primary target) was encountered at 1,169 meters TVD and found to be non-hydrocarbon bearing. The Batu Raja limestone, not a target at ELOK-1X, was encountered approximately 26 meters structurally lower than at AYU-1X exhibiting high mud gas readings and oil stained carbonates in the upper portion.

Preliminary interpretation of the LWD logs confirms the findings of AYU-1X within the Gumai sandstone formation. Significant indications of hydrocarbons in the form of oil shows and high gas readings were observed while drilling well-developed sands of Gumai age at both wells.

Based on the results of the AYU-1X and ELOK-1X exploration wells, Pan Orient management is very encouraged regarding the hydrocarbon potential of the ANGGUN-1X location that is approximately 5.6 kilometers to the north west of AYU and 80 meters structurally up dip from AYU-1X t the Gumai sandstone target level. The timing of further drilling activities in the PSC will be one of the main topics of discussion at an upcoming partners' meeting scheduled for early November 2017."
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on October 11, 2017, 08:53:34 AM
It is a 2nd confirmation that there are hydrocarbons in the play which is positive however, it is also the 2nd time that their estimate of what is underneat is way off: first time depth, now primary target or Talang Akar being non-hydrocarbon bearing.

As someone pointed on Stockhouse, they used this time the terms "very encouraged" instead of just "encouraging" in the last press release. Maybe just corporate bs but, who knows?

What Repsol will do and when seems to be the question? The Gumai formation seems to be the thing as confirmed now twice. Moreover, drilling of the Anggun location is key to determine the value of this play or as was speculated by some following the drilling results from the first well. However, this will require an access road and POE will need to spend its 49% share to get this well drilled depleting one of their assets or cash.

The market has already factored in the risks from that this morning and the value assigned to the play is near $0. Let's hope that the exploratory well in Thailand on their producing land being drilled in October will yield a positive result to raise the value of their other assets as protection against a complete write-off in Indonesia.   

Cardboard   
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on October 11, 2017, 10:13:39 AM
It is a 2nd confirmation that there are hydrocarbons in the play which is positive however, it is also the 2nd time that their estimate of what is underneat is way off: first time depth, now primary target or Talang Akar being non-hydrocarbon bearing.

As someone pointed on Stockhouse, they used this time the terms "very encouraged" instead of just "encouraging" in the last press release. Maybe just corporate bs but, who knows?

What Repsol will do and when seems to be the question? The Gumai formation seems to be the thing as confirmed now twice. Moreover, drilling of the Anggun location is key to determine the value of this play or as was speculated by some following the drilling results from the first well. However, this will require an access road and POE will need to spend its 49% share to get this well drilled depleting one of their assets or cash.

The market has already factored in the risks from that this morning and the value assigned to the play is near $0. Let's hope that the exploratory well in Thailand on their producing land being drilled in October will yield a positive result to raise the value of their other assets as protection against a complete write-off in Indonesia.   

Cardboard   

Yeah, It looks like another 6-12 month wait, at least, before anything is known for sure in Indonesia.  I'm not sure I'd read much into the use of "very encouraged" vs. "encouraging".   That might not mean anything.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Sunrider on October 11, 2017, 10:57:36 PM
It is a 2nd confirmation that there are hydrocarbons in the play which is positive however, it is also the 2nd time that their estimate of what is underneat is way off: first time depth, now primary target or Talang Akar being non-hydrocarbon bearing.

As someone pointed on Stockhouse, they used this time the terms "very encouraged" instead of just "encouraging" in the last press release. Maybe just corporate bs but, who knows?

What Repsol will do and when seems to be the question? The Gumai formation seems to be the thing as confirmed now twice. Moreover, drilling of the Anggun location is key to determine the value of this play or as was speculated by some following the drilling results from the first well. However, this will require an access road and POE will need to spend its 49% share to get this well drilled depleting one of their assets or cash.

The market has already factored in the risks from that this morning and the value assigned to the play is near $0. Let's hope that the exploratory well in Thailand on their producing land being drilled in October will yield a positive result to raise the value of their other assets as protection against a complete write-off in Indonesia.   

Cardboard

I’m not a geologist, but given that oil and gas are created by compressing rotting plant matter, isn’t it quite likely that you find some trace of hydrocarbons when you sink a well in a tropical regions? I mean management will put whatever marketing blurb out they can get away with so of course they will be encouraged but this well seems to be ‘dry’ to me - number 2. So whilst there is oil there somewhere, how many more wells are they going to drill around the holes in the cheese until they finally hit that hole?

All a bit promotion for people to keep paying their salaries from investors’ money?
Dead money until end of next year (presuming Repsoal agrees to drill more over the next 12 months)?

Thank you fo your views
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: SharperDingaan on October 12, 2017, 07:16:02 AM
The press releases are telling you that they found reasonably accessible oil trapped under a cap of non porous Lower Talang Akar Sandstone. The Bata Raja payzone is a wedge (over a 700m stretch it changes from 41m to 5.5m) sloping upwards, & geophysics will have given them some idea as to its width.

Carve a road, drill it, and connect to a collection facility will be expensive; the wells life will also be on the shorter end as the porosity favours extraction, accelerating depletion. There's a lot of payzone, but its essentially shut-in without collection access (Repsol?). POE would also be footing the development - against a CF stream that is both uncertain & which would not occur until quite some time in the future (crushing both PV, as well as possibly creating a negative NPV).

It would seem much likely that POE would simply get bought out by Repsol; probably at a good price for what's there now, but a lot lower than what it might have been were the well developed. Net, net it adds up to no real change; hence the poor POE stock performance.

SD



   
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on October 12, 2017, 07:31:47 AM
Lol!

The key is to watch Repsol's actions. The head of exploration has multiple exploration opportunities worldwide, a limited budget and his or her incentives is to find economical oil/gas for the company. That is what drives hir or her salary, promotions, etc. A big find in Indonesia (relatively speaking) would not even move the stock price.

So if they decide to drill a 3rd well in November that will tell you all you need to know about the success or failure of these first two wells.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on November 16, 2017, 06:33:20 AM
Well, Repsol must see some strong potential since they have accepted to drill a 3rd well.

https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPOE-2532383&symbol=POE&region=C

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on November 16, 2017, 07:35:52 AM
Well, Repsol must see some strong potential since they have accepted to drill a 3rd well.

https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPOE-2532383&symbol=POE&region=C

Cardboard

Looking good. The company is in good shape and not overvalued even without the optionality of a big hit in Indonesia. It looks to me like a case of A) We win or B) We don't lose (or at least we don't lose much).  Now we wait.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: wachtwoord on June 20, 2018, 12:34:24 PM
Has anyone been following this in depth in the meanwhile?
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on June 20, 2018, 12:50:53 PM
Still holding and the gusher is supposed to be drilled in September with Repsol.

I thought you did not invest in stocks anymore. Too boring. Just Bitcoins?  ;D

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on June 20, 2018, 01:00:05 PM
Still holding and the gusher is supposed to be drilled in September with Repsol.

I thought you did not invest in stocks anymore. Too boring. Just Bitcoins?  ;D

Cardboard

I'm still holding as well (both POE and BTC).
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: wachtwoord on June 21, 2018, 03:42:22 AM
Thanks for the update. Drilling is still set to in september then, I'll put an alert to look how that turned out then.

My stock portfolio is in my signature (with exception that UPGI was bought out last week and COMX will soon follow).
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Sunrider on November 14, 2018, 11:42:25 AM
Is anyone still invested in this? I followed the discussion around the time of the last test drill results and wondered what people make of the recent results/announcements?

Thanks!
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on November 14, 2018, 12:53:37 PM
I am. This Thailand discovery significantly de-risk the thesis.

So even if they find no oil in Indonesia, I do believe that current price is well covered by cash held + Thailand.

I assume zero value for SAGD project.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on November 14, 2018, 06:23:09 PM
PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP.
POE (CAD$1.43) – Target: $3.26 – BUY
[PDF]Follow Up Appraisal Well In Thailand Successful
6 pages
Action: Maintain BUY And $3.25 Target
This morning, Pan Orient (“POE”) announced that the follow up L53-DD2 appraisal well in Thailand encountered ~32 metres of net oil pay. Production testing of the L53-DD1 discovery well and the L53-DD2 well is expected to commence early next week. We maintain our BUY recommendation and $3.25 target price on the company’s strong financial position and high-impact exploration potential in Indonesia.
Details: Thailand Drilling Update
Thailand: L53-DD1 Exploration Well and L53-DD2 Appraisal Well Update: On October 23, 2018, POE announced that the L53-DD1 discovery well encountered 26 metres of net oil pay within three sandstone zones, between a true vertical depth of 960 to 1,125 metres. Logs indicate a high quality sandstone reservoir and the oil has an estimated gravity of 28° API. The discovery well is located ~28 km to the north of any existing producing wells on the L53 Concession (50.01% W.I.) and ~5 km to the south of the U-Thong oil field (Figure 1) located on the adjacent concession which has produced ~4.5 million barrels to date. Today, POE announced that the L53-DD2 follow up appraisal well was successfully drilled to a target ~26 metres up dip from the L53-DD1 discovery well. The well encountered approximately 32 metres of net oil pay within four sandstone zones, between a true vertical depth of 1,044 to 1,105 metres.

Production Testing To Commence On November 18th: POE has received government approval for a 90 day production test for the L53-DD1 discovery well, with testing expected to commence on November 18, 2018. The company has submitted an application for a 90 day production for the L53-DD2 appraisal well, with testing expected to commence at approximately the same time as the L53-DD1 well. Initial results are expected seven to ten days after testing commences.

Indonesia – East Jabung PSC (49% W.I.) To Spud in Q2/19: In 2017, POE drilled two exploration wells (Ayu-1X and the Elok-1X) on the East Jabung block that proved a working hydrocarbon system in the region. The follow up Anggun-1X well is located ~5.6 km to the north west of Ayu-1X well and ~70 meters structurally up dip at the Gumai sandstone level (Figure 3). The well is targeting both the Batu Raja formation and the same well-developed, porous Gumai sandstones reservoir encounter in the Ayu-1X and the Elok-1X wells, but much closer to the crest of the large structural closure. On November 5, 2018, POE announced that construction of the Anggun-1X access road had commenced and the well is expected to spud sometime between March 15 and May 15, 2019. The well is expected to take approximately 30 days to drill and POE plans to immediately commence a testing program with encouraging drill results. The estimated dry hole cost is US$15.4 million or US$7.55 million net to POE’s 49% interest.
Impact: Positive. New Discovery Likely To Boost Thailand Production
The L53-DD1 discovery well and follow up appraisal well have the potential to add material production that could fully fund an expanded drilling program in 2019 but the big potential upside for investors is the Anggun-1X exploration well to spud in Q2/19. We maintain our BUY recommendation and $3.25 target price.


  By Bill Newman – 2018/11/12
 
Copyright © 2013–2018   Mackie Research Capital Corporation, All rights reserved.
Our mailing address is:
199 Bay Street, Suite 4500, Commerce Court West, Box 368, Toronto, Ontario, M5L 1G2
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on November 15, 2018, 06:24:18 AM
I'm still holding and still waiting as well.  If they make a big find in Indonesia the stock will be worth significantly more than it is now.  If they don't, it will still be worth around where it is trading now (although it will probably drop some).   This stock is not a zero in any case.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on November 29, 2018, 07:31:14 AM
Pan Orient Energy Corp. L53-DD1 Oil Discovery- 779 BOPD
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/pan-orient-energy-corp-l53-dd1-oil-discovery--779-bopd-2018-11-29

"Pan Orient Energy Corp. ("Pan Orient") (POE - TSXV) is pleased to announce that the L53-DD1 exploration well is on a 90 day production test and currently producing at a steady state of between 778 to 784 barrels per day.."
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on November 29, 2018, 10:26:03 AM
"Oil sales, net to Pan Orient's 50.01-per-cent interest in the Thailand joint venture for Concession L53, were 210 barrels of oil per day for the first nine months of 2018, with funds flow from operations of $3.1-million ($54.31 per barrel)."

There will be some decline on these new wells but, should be nowhere near shale/horizontal.

So that one well is producing more net to POE than the entire L53 existing production. 2P NAV of L53 net to POE is $0.24/share. I don't think it is crazy to assume that this new development could be worth 2 to 3 times as much: already 2 wells drilled, producing and reserve life is longer than existing L53.

So essentially, development potential in Indonesia is essentially free or near free with cash on hand.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on November 29, 2018, 10:54:28 PM
http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog/pan-orient-oil-test-adds-backstop-to-anggun-high-impact-bet

 :D
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on December 03, 2018, 07:40:52 AM
News on L53-DD2
"Pan Orient Energy Corp. ("Pan Orient") (POE - TSXV) is pleased to announce that the L53-DD2 appraisal well is on a 90 day production test and currently producing at a steady state of approximately 659 barrels per day ("BOPD") ... The best sands (AA, BB and CC) based on thickness and reservoir quality, have yet to be tested."

Pan Orient Energy Corp. L53-DD2 Oil Appraisal - 658 BOPD
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/pan-orient-energy-corp-l53-dd2-oil-appraisal---658-bopd-2018-12-03-81843835
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: paperwerks on February 16, 2019, 08:10:57 PM
Another positive update here:

http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/02/14/1725461/0/en/Pan-Orient-Energy-Corp-Operations-Update.html

Pan Orient is a Dhando type investment. Heads I don’t lose anything or I only lose a little and tails I win 5-10 times my money. And we will know the results of Anggun by June or July at the latest. The market is asleep on this.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on February 28, 2019, 06:59:57 AM

Thailand L53-DD4 Well Confirms L53DD Oil Field Extension
http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/02/28/1744340/0/en/Thailand-L53-DD4-Well-Confirms-L53DD-Oil-Field-Extension.html

"Pan Orient Energy Corp is pleased to announce that the L53-DD4 appraisal well encountered an interpreted, combined 15.6 meters of net oil pay ..."
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on March 01, 2019, 04:23:30 AM
About a year and a half ago I put this in the “file it and forget it” basket and only took a look at it again last week.

Interesting times indeed.

Stock price up 33% this month and 91% in the past twelve months. The potential is just developing and the downside risk is limited.

Am I not right in that the big bounce in the stock price this time around is based on actual test results compared to previous bounces that were mostly based on speculation?
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on March 01, 2019, 05:54:59 AM
About a year and a half ago I put this in the “file it and forget it” basket and only took a look at it again last week.

Interesting times indeed.

Stock price up 33% this month and 91% in the past twelve months. The potential is just developing and the downside risk is limited.

Am I not right in that the big bounce in the stock price this time around is based on actual test results compared to previous bounces that were mostly based on speculation?

Yes, there has been some recent good results in Thailand, but the potential in Indonesia isn't even priced in at all, not even as speculation.  This is a lottery ticket where you can get your dollar back if you don't win.

I agree with paperwerks above, the market is asleep.

Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on March 14, 2019, 10:41:05 AM
PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP.: 2018 Year End Financial & Operating Results
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17444189-pan-orient-energy-corp-2018-year-end-financial-and-operating-results

""2018 was an excellent year for the Thailand operation with substantial increases in year-end reserves and production as a result of the L53-DD oil discovery made in October.  This was then followed up with the success of the L53-DD4 appraisal well confirming oil in a fault compartment that had been assigned possible reserves in the year-end 2018 reserve report. The success at L53-DD highlighted the hydrocarbon potential of the northern portion of Concession L53 and provided an increased understanding of the petroleum system in the immediate discovery area.  As a result of post discovery analysis, an aggressive four to five well exploration drilling program is planned for the remainder of 2019 with the first 2 wells to commence in July.

Approval of the L53-DD Production License is anticipated in April 2019, at which point the L53-DD1 & L53-DD2 wells will be brought back on stream.  A 90 day test application has been submitted for the recently completed L53-DD4 well with approval anticipated shortly. The L53-DD3 appraisal well is currently drilling through the target zone to a total depth that will be reached shortly.

Construction for the Anggun-1X exploration well in Indonesian East Jabung PSC has been making steady progress despite heavy rain at times.  The operator has indicated rig mobilization is anticipated to commence in early May with drilling to start in late June to July, subject to weather, of course.  Of note, press reports indicate that Repsol, the operator of the East Jabung PSC, has made a significant gas discovery in the nearby Sakakemang PSC.  This large discovery has resulted in significant interest by industry players and has highlighted the potential for large discoveries still to be made within this region of South Sumatra."   
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on March 20, 2019, 07:43:18 AM
"the L53-DD3 appraisal well encountered an interpreted combined approximately 38.5 meters of true vertical thickness net oil pay ... This is the thickest net oil pay encountered in any of the L53-DD fields to date."

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/03/18/1756295/0/en/Pan-Orient-Energy-Corp-Thailand-L53-DD3-Appraisal-Well.html
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on March 20, 2019, 09:42:50 AM

PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP.

POE (CAD$1.86) – Target: $3.25 – BUY

Appraisal Well Encounters Thick Oil Pay

Action: Maintain BUY And $3.25 Target

This morning, Pan Orient (“POE”) announced that the L53-DD3 appraisal well in Thailand was successful. We maintain our BUY recommendation and $3.25 target price on the company’s strong financial position, growing production base in Thailand and the high-impact exploration potential of the Anggun-1X exploration well in Indonesia.

Details: Drilling Update

L53-DD3 Appraisal Successful: POE holds a 50.01% interest in Concession L53 which contains the L-53 DD oilfield discovered by the company in October 2018. A two well appraisal program of the L-53 DD field commenced on February 11, 2019. On February 28, 2019, POE announced that the L53-DD4 appraisal well was successful and encountered 15.6 metres of net pay with the AA2 and BB/CC sandstones. Today, POE announced that the L53-DD3 appraisal well encountered five separate sandstone reservoirs with combined net pay 38.5 metres. This is the thickest net oil pay encountered in any of the wells drilled into the L53-DD oil fields to date. The top of the main BB/CC sand came in approximately 9.3 meters high to that seen at L53-DD2 appraisal well drilled in November 2018. The L53-DD3 appraisal well also encountered oil pay in the same AA2 sand, which was discovered by at L53-DD4 appraisal well.

Two Appraisal Wells To Test: POE has submitted applications for a 90 day production test for both the L53-DD3 and L53-DD4 appraisal wells. Testing of the L53-DD4 well is expected to commence shortly, which should be followed by the L53-DD3 well.

Thailand Exploration:

In late Q3/19 or early Q4/19, POE plans to commence a four to five well exploration program. The first two wells will target seismically defined prospects located near to the DD field.

Impact: Positive. Maintain BUY And $3.25 Target

To date, POE has drilled four successful wells into the L-53 DD oilfield. Two wells (L53-DD1 and L53-DD2) have tested high rates of oil and two more wells (L53-DD3 and L53-DD4) are expected to test shortly, which could provide near term catalysts for the stock. The company also has an active exploration program planned for Thailand which could add new reserves and production later this year. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the company’s growing production and cash flow base in Thailand, as well as the tremendous resource potential of is high impact Anggun-1X exploration well in Indonesia.

Mackie Research Capital Corporation
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on March 20, 2019, 02:55:17 PM
After disappointments in India a year or so ago, everything in Thailand seems to be meeting or exceeding expectations. It will be very interesting to see what Indonesia will bring. Stock price has doubled in the past six months mostly on results and not speculation.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on March 20, 2019, 07:40:45 PM
What are you doing in this stock leftie? This is oil & gas going against your principles you know? Unless you have no morality when it comes to money?

Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: wachtwoord on March 21, 2019, 10:18:30 AM
What are you doing in this stock leftie? This is oil & gas going against your principles you know? Unless you have no morality when it comes to money?

Please keep the politics in the politics section. Let's keep the investment section based on merit of investment opportunities rather than anything else.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on March 21, 2019, 03:50:59 PM
Cardboard, First off I have no idea of what you are talking about, but there you go with the names again. What does your comment have to do with POE? Now regarding your remarks, as a longtime member of the Conservative Party calling me a “lefty”shows just how far to the extreme right you must be. Each to his own, and also Watchwood is correct.

I think this company has a lot of real potential. Only a small position for me but it is fun to watch.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on April 18, 2019, 06:39:14 AM
Pan Orient’s Anggun-1X Well Could Be Huge
https://mp1capital.com/pan-orients-anggun-1x-well-could-be-huge/

"Earlier this evening, I got the chance to talk with Jeff Chisolm, CEO of Pan Orient Energy (TSXV – POE), who, like the company, is based in Bangkok, Thailand. The main purpose of my phone call was to get an update on road construction.  And I got that.  Basically, the end of June schedule provided in the last corporate update still stands.  And Repsol/Pan Orient will handle any potential Ramadan related delays by mobilizing the rig on site in early May.  Like clockwork, the rainy season in South Sumatra usually stops in the 3rd or 4th week of April.  If that’s the case, Jeff doesn’t foresee any major delays to the late June schedule for the finishing of road construction and the end of June/early July spudding of the Anggun-1X well."
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on April 18, 2019, 10:41:54 AM
Read that a few days ago. Not likely Jeff Chisolm going to say anything too negative but he wouldn't be involved if he didn't think they had a good chance of success.

Bought a little more today.

Don't think there's a lot to lose here. Company is probably worth close to the present share price without including what may come out of Anggun-1X. Even before the Thailand results, the downside was around $1.00 so perhaps present downside is $1.40-1.50? Some optimistically see potential in the double digits, but even if it topped out at $3 or $4 it seems well worth the risk. It is still not a very large position for me but if it hits it would would be nice as it is tax protected in my TFSA. It is fun watching this though.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on April 26, 2019, 06:56:23 AM
New Press Release:

CALGARY, Alberta, April 25, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --

THAILAND
Onshore Concession L53 (Pan Orient Energy (Siam) Ltd., in which Pan Orient has 50.01% ownership)

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (“Pan Orient”) (POE – TSXV) is pleased to announce that the L53-DD Production License ("PL") has been approved by the Government of Thailand.  This was in addition to a number of other approvals that were required to commence long-term production from the L53-DD field discovery made in October 2018.  The primary term of the PL is 20 years.

Four wells have been drilled and completed within the L53-DD field since October 2018 with two of these, L53-DD1 and L53-DD2, producing for an approximately 90 day test period that ended on February 18 and February 23, 2019, respectively.  Two additional wells, L53-DD4 and L53-DD3, were then drilled in 2019; however 90 day test approval periods were not granted by the Government of Thailand, likely due to the advanced stage of the PL approval process.  All four wells are now on long-term production.

At the time of shut-in, the L53-DD2 well was producing 783 BOPD from the base of the BB/CC sand and the L53-DD1 well was producing 470 BOPD from the BB/CC sand with perforations in close proximity to the sand's defined oil water contact.  Both wells were located within the December 31, 2018 proved and probable reserves envelope for the BB/CC sandstone.

L53-DD2 production has recommenced production from the same perforation interval within the BB/CC sand that produced prior to shut-in.  L53-DD1 has now been perforated within the AA sand and will represent the first production from this sandstone zone that had only probable reserves (no proved reserves) assigned to it in the December 31, 2018 reserves report.  L53-DD4 has been perforated in the BB/CC sand and will commence production from an area that had only possible reserves assigned to it in the most recent reserves report.  L53-DD3 will commence production from the DD/EE sand within the proved and probable reserves envelope and in close proximity to the L53-DD2 well.  This represents the first production from the L53-DD3 and L53-DD4 wells since they were drilled. 

A Thailand production update will be provided to Pan Orient shareholders in approximately seven to ten days once production from the wells has stabilized.     
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on April 26, 2019, 07:03:10 AM
New Press Release:

CALGARY, Alberta, April 25, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --

THAILAND
Onshore Concession L53 (Pan Orient Energy (Siam) Ltd., in which Pan Orient has 50.01% ownership)

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (“Pan Orient”) (POE – TSXV) is pleased to announce that the L53-DD Production License ("PL") has been approved by the Government of Thailand.  This was in addition to a number of other approvals that were required to commence long-term production from the L53-DD field discovery made in October 2018.  The primary term of the PL is 20 years.

Four wells have been drilled and completed within the L53-DD field since October 2018 with two of these, L53-DD1 and L53-DD2, producing for an approximately 90 day test period that ended on February 18 and February 23, 2019, respectively.  Two additional wells, L53-DD4 and L53-DD3, were then drilled in 2019; however 90 day test approval periods were not granted by the Government of Thailand, likely due to the advanced stage of the PL approval process.  All four wells are now on long-term production.

At the time of shut-in, the L53-DD2 well was producing 783 BOPD from the base of the BB/CC sand and the L53-DD1 well was producing 470 BOPD from the BB/CC sand with perforations in close proximity to the sand's defined oil water contact.  Both wells were located within the December 31, 2018 proved and probable reserves envelope for the BB/CC sandstone.

L53-DD2 production has recommenced production from the same perforation interval within the BB/CC sand that produced prior to shut-in.  L53-DD1 has now been perforated within the AA sand and will represent the first production from this sandstone zone that had only probable reserves (no proved reserves) assigned to it in the December 31, 2018 reserves report.  L53-DD4 has been perforated in the BB/CC sand and will commence production from an area that had only possible reserves assigned to it in the most recent reserves report.  L53-DD3 will commence production from the DD/EE sand within the proved and probable reserves envelope and in close proximity to the L53-DD2 well.  This represents the first production from the L53-DD3 and L53-DD4 wells since they were drilled. 

A Thailand production update will be provided to Pan Orient shareholders in approximately seven to ten days once production from the wells has stabilized.     

4 new wells online and producing. ... and yet the stock doesn't move.   The market is still asleep at the wheel here.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: bizaro86 on April 26, 2019, 09:09:25 AM
the L53-DD1 well was producing 470 BOPD from the BB/CC sand with perforations in close proximity to the sand's defined oil water contact. 

I'm starting to get interested here, but am wondering if they publish much technical information? If anyone has anything I'd love a link.

Because a production rate from perfs near an oil-water contact isn't in any way representative of a long term production rate, and is almost always NOT where you would want to perf an oil well...
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on April 30, 2019, 09:05:37 AM
Energy Summary for April 29, 2019
 
2019-04-29 17:21 PT - Market Summary

by Stockwatch Business Reporter

Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, Pan Orient Energy Corp. (POE) lost one cent to $1.87 on 1,500 shares, giving back the one cent it added on Friday after receiving a production licence for its L53-DD field in Thailand. Pan Orient applied for this licence in December, shortly after drilling the field's initial discovery well and a follow-up appraisal well. It then drilled two more appraisal wells in early 2019. With the receipt of the licence, all four wells have been put on long-term production. Pan Orient did not disclose the rates of production and says it will not do so for several more days, in order to give the rates time to stabilize. It did say, however, that the two 2018 wells were respectively flowing 470 and 783 barrels of oil a day before they were shut in to await the licence. For context, Pan Orient's total production (all of which comes from other fields in Thailand) averaged 366 barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2018. The L53-DD field was a rare bright spot for energy investors during that quarter, allowing Pan Orient's stock to rise to about $1.50 at the end of the year from around $1 in October. The stock has since kept rising to its current level of $1.87.

In addition, the Thai results were a lovely distraction from continuing delays at an even more intriguing project, East Jabung in Indonesia. This is a joint venture between Pan Orient and the above-mentioned Repsol. They have been working together since 2015 and have drilled two exploration wells so far. Although neither well was successful, Pan Orient has consistently maintained that it is "very encouraged" by East Jabung and its "significant indications" of hydrocarbons. The joint venturers were originally hoping to spud a third exploration well in the third quarter of last year, but are nearly a year behind schedule and are hoping to finally start drilling in late June or July. In February, Repsol made a sizable gas discovery at the nearby Sakakemang block (not owned with Pan Orient). Pan Orient trumpeted this discovery (which it had no part of) as having "highlighted the potential for large discoveries still to be made within this region." It is clearly hoping that its next East Jabung well will make one of those discoveries. Investors should find out soon enough. The well is expected to take about a month to drill and, if it finds anything, a further three weeks to test. The drilling and testing combined should cost about $9-million (U.S.) net to Pan Orient's interest. Pan Orient had a healthy $32.5-million in working capital as of year-end 2018.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on May 08, 2019, 06:07:10 AM
Here is today's press release. I'm certainly no expert but this looks fairly positive so far. Perhaps someone here could translate some of the technical aspects for those results.

CALGARY, Alberta, May 08, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --

THAILAND

Onshore Concession L53 (Pan Orient Energy (Siam) Ltd., in which Pan Orient has 50.01% ownership)

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (“Pan Orient”) (POE – TSXV) is pleased to announce that Concession L53 oil production has averaged 2,824 BOPD (1,412 BOPD net to Pan Orient's 50.01% equity interest) from April 27 to May 6, 2019 with 2,468 BOPD from the four L53-DD wells that commenced stable production on April 27, 2019.  An additional approximately 40 BOPD has been shut-in during the same period due to temporary trucking constraints.

Initial production results for the three wells producing for either the first time (L53-DD3 & L53-DD4) or from a new zone (L53-DD1) are:

    L53-DD3 has averaged 570 BOPD of 23.5 API oil with a BS&W of 3.79% through 4.2 meters of perforations between a true vertical depth ("TVD") of 1112.7-1116.9 meters at the top of the DD/EE sand utilizing an electrical submersible pump up to May 2 when the well had been shut-in pending a workover that will perforate the upper five meters of the BB sand. This workover is anticipated to be completed shortly and a production update will be provided to shareholders after production stabilizes from the BB sand.

    L53-DD4 has averaged 729 BOPD of 23.8 API oil with a BS&W of 11.52% through four meters of perforations near the base of the BB/CC sand between a TVD of 1081-1085 meters utilizing an electrical submersible pump set at 1,499 meters measured depth (“MD”) and current fluid level at 394 meters MD.

    L53-DD1 has averaged 514 BOPD of 23.5 API oil with a BS&W of 2.36% through four meters of perforations between a TVD of 960.9-966.5 meters starting at the top of the AA sand utilizing a beam pump set at 977.3 meters MD and current fluid level at 229 meters MD.

In addition, L53-DD2 recommenced production from the BB/CC sand and has averaged 883 BOPD.

Test results are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. Future decline rates and recovery factors will be determined to a large extent by whether or not aquifer support is present, and to what degree, in each of the producing zones.

Current activities are focused on the L53-DD3 workover and a multi-well exploration/appraisal drilling program that is expected to commence in late July to early August 2019, targeting exploration prospects offsetting the L53-DD field and appraisal drilling at L53-B.  A second multi-well exploration drilling program focused mainly in the L53-DD field area is anticipated in late 2019 to early 2020 subject to the timing of required Government of Thailand approvals.

INDONESIA

East Jabung PSC (Pan Orient 49% & Non Operator)

Pan Orient has been informed by the operator of the East Jabung Production Sharing Contract (“PSC”) that the estimated drilling rig mobilization date of the Anggun-1X exploration well has been revised to approximately July 1, 2019 with drilling to commence approximately August 1 as a result of continued rain.  There has been only thirteen days without rain between March 17th and May 6th, however six of the last nine days since April 29 have been without rain.  In most years, rain is expected to gradually decrease from the end of April onward.  Overall, construction for the Anggun-1X access road has been more heavily impacted than was the case of the earlier Ayu-1X exploration well due to the construction method used.  The Anggun-1X access road is a permanent road, as opposed to the temporary rig mat road that was constructed for Ayu-1X, which allows for rapid follow-up appraisal drilling in the event of Anggun-1X success. 
   
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on May 10, 2019, 01:39:00 PM
Could be significant buy backs coming.

"Pan Orient will be authorized to purchase, for cancellation, up to 4,504,064 of its common shares (10% of the public float), subject to a maximum of 1,098,008 common shares (2% of the 54,900,407 issued and outstanding common shares) during any 30 day period"

https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2019/05/10/pan-orient-energy-corp-normal-course-issuer-bid#G1kijxaPR9Rkd818.99
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on May 10, 2019, 02:34:06 PM
Believe POE netback's are pretty great at the 1,400 bbl/d level with Brent at $70 level. Probably at least $40/bbl US leading to $75K CF a day or about $27mm Cdn annually.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on May 21, 2019, 12:20:32 PM
Seems we just had a technical/chart related crash on POE and bought more.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Paarslaars on September 13, 2019, 07:15:29 AM
Any news on Anggun-1X? I recall they should have started drilling end of August...
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on September 13, 2019, 07:42:02 AM
It has been delayed... again. We should hear something by the end of October/early November or see one of the latest press releases.

In the meantime, we should get more results from Thailand drilling. I am hoping for continued good news there or de-risking further this story. It would be nice to have Thailand + remaining cash as the only necessary anchor of value to support share price at current level or paying zero for Indonesian potential.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: Cardboard on September 17, 2019, 08:48:11 AM
https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPOE-2810518&symbol=POE&region=C

Thesis keeps getting better while price not moving so much.

Production for June net to POE was 1,540 bls/d. As they keep growing this asset rapidly which will be the case with further discoveries, we could easily end up with 2,000 bls/d.

Current market cap assuming stock options dilution is $144 million. So ignoring cash on hand, huge potential in Indonesia and SAGD project, we end up with a per flowing valuation of $72,000. Considering that they are receiving Brent pricing and not subject to egress issues as in Canada this seems reasonable. Furthermore, I do believe that production could go higher than 2,000 bls/d if they keep obtaining such exploration success.

Cardboard
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on September 20, 2019, 05:43:37 AM
$2.50 now, five year high from a 52 week low of $1.01.

Could be just the start of things to come.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on October 30, 2019, 07:36:59 AM
More good news from Thailand and more delays in Indonesia.

"L53-B1 appraisal well encountered a combined approximately 35 meters of net oil pay within five main sandstone intervals between the true vertical depths of 844 and 1,043 meters"

" Anggun-1X exploration well, which had originally been anticipated to commence drilling prior to the end of October, has been delayed to approximately November 12 due to forest fires in the immediate vicinity of the well access road."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pan-orient-energy-corp-operations-123005251.html

Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on November 12, 2019, 07:18:59 AM
Almost ready to drill in Indonesia. And Thailand producing more than originally expected with more wells to drill next year.

Operations update: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/12/1945389/0/en/Pan-Orient-Energy-Corp-Operations-Update.html

"Thailand oil sales averaged 2,447 BOPD in October 2019 and was 2,697 BOPD on November 9 (this includes L53-DD5ST1 testing). This is substantially above the proven and probable reserves estimated production of approximately 1,432 BOPD in the December 31, 2018 reserves report for this time period."


"INDONESIA
East Jabung PSC (Pan Orient 49% & Non Operator)
Drilling rig acceptance procedures for the Anggun-1X exploration well are estimated to be completed on November 13th with drilling to commence immediately thereafter.  Shareholders will be informed when the well has commenced drilling."

Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: sculpin on November 14, 2019, 03:06:24 PM
We are pleased to announce drilling of the Anggun-1X exploration well in Indonesia commenced November 14th and the well is expected to reach total depth in an estimated 20 to 30 days.  The fourth quarter will see preparations for an expanded Thailand exploration and appraisal drilling program that will commence in early January 2020."

The structural complex being targeted by the Anggun-1X well was estimated by Gaffney Cline & Associates (“GCA”) pre AYU-1X in 2015 to hold a Pmean potential of 122.9MMboe (recoverable) net to POE’s interest within the Batu Raja, Gumai and ABF formations.

 
http://www.panorient.ca/images/stories/file/Pan_Orient_Energy_Corp_Jul4-2019_Annual_Special_Meeting_Presentation.pdf
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on November 18, 2019, 11:48:06 AM
There has been a lot of criticism of POE for past delays and nothing ever seems to come in on time.

So in the case of the Anggun-1X drill site you just have to ask yourself why would they take the time and go to the extra expense of building a PERMANENT road to access this drill site unless they were pretty damn sure of positive results. Or am I overlooking something?
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on November 18, 2019, 11:57:39 AM
There has been a lot of criticism of POE for past delays and nothing ever seems to come in on time.

So in the case of the Anggun-1X drill site you just have to ask yourself why would they take the time and go to the extra expense of building a PERMANENT road to access this drill site unless they were pretty damn sure of positive results. Or am I overlooking something?

I've thought the same thing.   They've done temporary roads in the past to exploratory drill sites.  It appears that they are fairly confident about this one.  One thing that gives me pause is that they have a huge approved buyback plan, yet the volume has been very low.  Why haven't they been buying back their stock like crazy at these prices?    I hope they don't wait until they hit huge and the stock shoots up to start buying back stock.  Many companies do their buy backs in just that way.  Or is it that they aren't really as confident as they seem?    Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on November 18, 2019, 04:28:51 PM
They have a lot going on right now, perhaps they want to save cash for more drilling. They had been buying back shares this summer, so perhaps they decided that they want to keep a balance.


 
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on December 09, 2019, 07:31:33 AM
Trading halted "Pending News".

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iiroc-trading-halt-poe-130000296.html
"VANCOUVER , Dec. 9, 2019 /CNW/ - The following issues have been halted by IIROC:
Company: Pan Orient Energy Corp.
TSX-Venture Symbol: POE (All Issues)
Reason: At the Request of the Company Pending News"
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on December 09, 2019, 08:20:17 AM
Worst case scenario.  Nothing.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/12/09/1957989/0/en/Pan-Orient-Energy-Corp-Operations-Update.html
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: wachtwoord on December 10, 2019, 03:03:10 AM
Terrible news of course, but wow isn't that an overreaction going back to $1.01? There's still Thailand.

Maybe time for those buybacks now  :)
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: cwericb on December 10, 2019, 03:45:52 AM
Glad I resisted the temptation to buy more shares over the past month or so. But if it doesn't bounce this morning I might pick up a few more shares.

Disappointing news, but I think it has overshadowed the successes they have had in Thailand. This company is still healthy with money in the bank and revenue coming in. The price today is back where it was prior to the good news they have had out of Thailand.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on December 10, 2019, 05:56:59 AM
Glad I resisted the temptation to buy more shares over the past month or so. But if it doesn't bounce this morning I might pick up a few more shares.

Disappointing news, but I think it has overshadowed the successes they have had in Thailand. This company is still healthy with money in the bank and revenue coming in. The price today is back where it was prior to the good news they have had out of Thailand.


I picked some up yesterday.  I couldn't resist.
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy - Management
Post by: sbalsam on August 17, 2020, 09:56:04 AM
There are a lot of long-time followers on this thread. And the Company has certainly been through a lot of ups and downs over the last couple of years (and throughout its history really). I am wondering if any of you have strong impressions of management and/or the Company's strategy.

I have been pretty unsuccessful in communicating with management. I had a phone call with Bill Ostlund in early May and a couple of emails with Jeff Chisholm but received very little in the way of answers to basic questions and was not able to get a sense of the Company's strategic direction. With such limited interaction, I also wasn't able to get a good read on management's capability or shareholder friendliness. To be clear, I didn't come away with a negative impression; I simply don't have much to go on either way.

Jeff did say that the Company is still hoping to have an in-person AGM later this year if travel/quarantining rules allow for it which is why they have not yet scheduled the meeting. (Currently, Thailand requires quarantine on return so he would have quarantine periods on each end of travel to Canada.) If that does not look possible, they will do a zoom meeting.

If anyone has anything to add, I would greatly appreciate it.

Steve
Title: Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
Post by: rkbabang on August 17, 2020, 10:08:41 AM
I ended up selling for around a 50% loss in March and have no longer been following it.