Author Topic: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation  (Read 19168 times)

wisowis

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Re: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation
« Reply #40 on: August 15, 2019, 05:37:53 PM »
Looks like 3G Capital opened a position in PAR in Q2: https://whalewisdom.com/filer/3g-capital-partners-ltd#tabholdings_tab_link

Pretty interesting given their ownership of Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeye...


walkie518

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Re: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation
« Reply #41 on: August 16, 2019, 08:58:07 AM »
Looks like 3G Capital opened a position in PAR in Q2: https://whalewisdom.com/filer/3g-capital-partners-ltd#tabholdings_tab_link

Pretty interesting given their ownership of Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeye...

I think timing may prove prescient here too as PAR starts to accelerates on the plan that has just been put into place

wisowis

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Casey

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Re: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation
« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2019, 11:34:09 AM »
I think that the 12x multiple used in Voss' base case scenario is a bit much, but you don't need to use a 12x multiple to get to something compelling.

Casey

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Re: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation
« Reply #44 on: October 10, 2019, 01:50:31 PM »
Some notes on what I like about this:

- the Voss writeup is good
- Savneet comes off as smart and pre-meditated, like he's thought a lot about how to roll out the expansion of business in believable ways... adding modules, payments, internationalization, divesting a couple things. Can't see why they wont able to do some number of these, raise ARPU, sign more customers.
- Payments first iteration is coming soon
- none of the POS I've read about seem particularly intimidating: Toast, Lightspeed, Aloha, square, oracle
- I like that 3G capital recently bought some, while also owning a bunch of QSR
- I like that there are some pseudo-activist investors spreading the good word on the company
- mentioned on conference calls getting to the point where they're rolling out 1200 new units a quarter soon
- get organic growth as fast casual restaurants that they've sold into expand locations
- like CRM, HUBS, other platform-y software businesses, I think they're strategically in a great position within the restaurant

So end of 2020, what does it look like? They have 16,000 units at 2400 in annual revenue, and they've added payments in some small number of customers and are continuing to add 1,200 a quarter to that total units number, continued to do core software work and tacked on a couple modules and revenue partnerships. I think that sounds great. ARPU will start trending up as they build those out, and they'll keep building out.

Later, arbitrary math: they can get to 60,000 installs which is a reasonably small amount of the market, and 4k in annual ARPU, well that would be a 1.2 billion dollar company at a 5x multiple of revenue. Voss says 12x of revenue. Maybe that's a lot.

I guess I don't really understand as much as I'd like about the process for ''rolling out" a large chain, how people intensive it is, and how much they'll be able to scale that as the numbers get a bigger base.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 01:58:30 PM by Casey »

stahleyp

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Re: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation
« Reply #45 on: October 10, 2019, 03:08:38 PM »
Anyone know Voss capital's performance?
Paul

spartansaver

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Re: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation
« Reply #46 on: October 10, 2019, 03:34:48 PM »
This provides a decent list of POS competitors. Seems like there are a lot of decent ones (not all listed seem to be perfect comps). Why does Brink continue to grow at a fast rate amongst all the competition?

https://www.g2.com/categories/restaurant-pos


wisowis

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Re: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation
« Reply #47 on: October 10, 2019, 04:36:27 PM »
Anyone know Voss capital's performance?

Their 2017 pitch deck for PAR says their long portfolio has done 29% CAGR on since 2011.

One of their guys used to post on here as Southpaw (check out the QHR and QIS threads).

ArminvanBuyout

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Re: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation
« Reply #48 on: October 11, 2019, 05:29:32 AM »
This provides a decent list of POS competitors. Seems like there are a lot of decent ones (not all listed seem to be perfect comps). Why does Brink continue to grow at a fast rate amongst all the competition?

https://www.g2.com/categories/restaurant-pos

Been trying to wrap my head around that question too. From everything I read online, it actually seems like their product is worse vs. Toast / Revel. However, the bull argument is that the other competitors can't really scale on an enterprise level, whereas Brink is pretty much solely focused on that. If I recall, Toast's largest customer is JambaJuice, so there could be some merit to this argument.

The online articles are also probably catered to a mom-and-pop operator, so it could be true that Toast and Revel are better for them.

Liberty

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Re: PAR - PAR Technology Corporation
« Reply #49 on: October 11, 2019, 06:18:47 AM »
Some notes on what I like about this:

- the Voss writeup is good
- Savneet comes off as smart and pre-meditated, like he's thought a lot about how to roll out the expansion of business in believable ways... adding modules, payments, internationalization, divesting a couple things. Can't see why they wont able to do some number of these, raise ARPU, sign more customers.
- Payments first iteration is coming soon
- none of the POS I've read about seem particularly intimidating: Toast, Lightspeed, Aloha, square, oracle
- I like that 3G capital recently bought some, while also owning a bunch of QSR
- I like that there are some pseudo-activist investors spreading the good word on the company
- mentioned on conference calls getting to the point where they're rolling out 1200 new units a quarter soon
- get organic growth as fast casual restaurants that they've sold into expand locations
- like CRM, HUBS, other platform-y software businesses, I think they're strategically in a great position within the restaurant

So end of 2020, what does it look like? They have 16,000 units at 2400 in annual revenue, and they've added payments in some small number of customers and are continuing to add 1,200 a quarter to that total units number, continued to do core software work and tacked on a couple modules and revenue partnerships. I think that sounds great. ARPU will start trending up as they build those out, and they'll keep building out.

Later, arbitrary math: they can get to 60,000 installs which is a reasonably small amount of the market, and 4k in annual ARPU, well that would be a 1.2 billion dollar company at a 5x multiple of revenue. Voss says 12x of revenue. Maybe that's a lot.

I guess I don't really understand as much as I'd like about the process for ''rolling out" a large chain, how people intensive it is, and how much they'll be able to scale that as the numbers get a bigger base.

Thanks
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