Author Topic: ATVI - Activision Blizzard  (Read 29072 times)

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: ATVI - Activision Blizzard
« Reply #80 on: September 24, 2019, 07:55:22 AM »
Bad customer support is frustrating!

I agree that Call of Duty looks pretty strong this year and opens some short-term trading opportunities, but GME may be the better way to execute especially after the ATVI run up to mid-50s.

Even with the recent insider buying, I wouldn't touch GME here @ ~$5.30. Q2 earnings were very poor. Beyond closing lots of stores I've yet to see many good ideas from the new management team. Retro stores and e sports are distractions and COD MW exceeding expectations isn't going to bail out a business model that's in secular decline.

Agree with you about ATVI. Market seems like it has been basically efficient in running the stock up on (1) WOW Classic being a bigger success than nearly anyone anticipated (2) COD MW looking very solid against relatively weak competition (3) some other incremental good news like Overwatch coming to Switch


5xEBITDA

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Re: ATVI - Activision Blizzard
« Reply #81 on: September 24, 2019, 08:06:15 AM »
Bad customer support is frustrating!

I agree that Call of Duty looks pretty strong this year and opens some short-term trading opportunities, but GME may be the better way to execute especially after the ATVI run up to mid-50s.

Even with the recent insider buying, I wouldn't touch GME here @ ~$5.30. Q2 earnings were very poor. Beyond closing lots of stores I've yet to see many good ideas from the new management team. Retro stores and e sports are distractions and COD MW exceeding expectations isn't going to bail out a business model that's in secular decline.


I think the stock is good for a pop on some comps driven by a solid Call of Duty but I mostly like the angle of the Company giving in to the buyback proposal. It is definitely a non-fundamental trade, though, my main position is short the bond.

glorysk87

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Re: ATVI - Activision Blizzard
« Reply #82 on: September 24, 2019, 10:31:14 AM »
all i know is that the new call of duty is fun as hell and i will be spending many hours playing it

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: ATVI - Activision Blizzard
« Reply #83 on: September 24, 2019, 11:58:17 AM »
Bad customer support is frustrating!

I agree that Call of Duty looks pretty strong this year and opens some short-term trading opportunities, but GME may be the better way to execute especially after the ATVI run up to mid-50s.

Even with the recent insider buying, I wouldn't touch GME here @ ~$5.30. Q2 earnings were very poor. Beyond closing lots of stores I've yet to see many good ideas from the new management team. Retro stores and e sports are distractions and COD MW exceeding expectations isn't going to bail out a business model that's in secular decline.


I think the stock is good for a pop on some comps driven by a solid Call of Duty but I mostly like the angle of the Company giving in to the buyback proposal. It is definitely a non-fundamental trade, though, my main position is short the bond.

Help me understand why you think GME management is going to start buying back shares? If you are wrong and they don't buyback any shares good chance you lose on both sides of trade.

Also, ATVI just put of press release that COD MW beta is largest in franchise history

https://investor.activision.com/news-releases/news-release-details/call-duty-modern-warfare-multiplayer-beta-biggest-ever-franchise

5xEBITDA

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Re: ATVI - Activision Blizzard
« Reply #84 on: September 24, 2019, 01:23:46 PM »
Bad customer support is frustrating!

I agree that Call of Duty looks pretty strong this year and opens some short-term trading opportunities, but GME may be the better way to execute especially after the ATVI run up to mid-50s.

Even with the recent insider buying, I wouldn't touch GME here @ ~$5.30. Q2 earnings were very poor. Beyond closing lots of stores I've yet to see many good ideas from the new management team. Retro stores and e sports are distractions and COD MW exceeding expectations isn't going to bail out a business model that's in secular decline.


I think the stock is good for a pop on some comps driven by a solid Call of Duty but I mostly like the angle of the Company giving in to the buyback proposal. It is definitely a non-fundamental trade, though, my main position is short the bond.

Help me understand why you think GME management is going to start buying back shares? If you are wrong and they don't buyback any shares good chance you lose on both sides of trade.

Also, ATVI just put of press release that COD MW beta is largest in franchise history

https://investor.activision.com/news-releases/news-release-details/call-duty-modern-warfare-multiplayer-beta-biggest-ever-franchise

The bond trades at par and is an asymmetric short - if I'm wrong all I lose is my carry. If they give in to the activists and buy back stock the bond is likely to crash to at least mid-80s with likely further downside, I like it mainly due to the risk/reward regardless of the % likelihood of it working out. The stock leg is more eh.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: ATVI - Activision Blizzard
« Reply #85 on: October 30, 2019, 06:52:36 AM »
COD MW: "had more than $600 million in sell-through worldwide in its first three days of release."

https://investor.activision.com/news-releases/news-release-details/call-duty-modern-warfare-delivers-blockbuster-opening-weekend

Compare to 2018's COD BOPS 4: "sold more than $500 million in sell-through worldwide in its first three days of release"

https://investor.activision.com/node/31961/pdf

Compare to Compare to 2017's COD WWII:"surpassed more than $500 million in sell-through worldwide in its first three days of release"

https://investor.activision.com/news-releases/news-release-details/call-duty-wwii-scores-over-half-billion-dollar-opening-weekend-0


The market was probably pricing in a strong launch, as I've seen ~20 million in total unit sales estimates several times. I doubt the game ever gets there.

rogermunibond

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Re: ATVI - Activision Blizzard
« Reply #86 on: October 31, 2019, 12:00:31 PM »
At an ASP of $48 they're close to 12.5 million units.  I've seen 20-22M units from various analysts.

You're expecting the sales to cliff dive over the holidays?

If anything various retail surveys seem to indicate the excitement for COD MW is pretty high (I'm thinking the Piper Jaffary Teen retail survey for example).

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: ATVI - Activision Blizzard
« Reply #87 on: October 31, 2019, 01:16:38 PM »
At an ASP of $48 they're close to 12.5 million units.  I've seen 20-22M units from various analysts.

You're expecting the sales to cliff dive over the holidays?

If anything various retail surveys seem to indicate the excitement for COD MW is pretty high (I'm thinking the Piper Jaffary Teen retail survey for example).

No, you are right. I misread a chart. COD WWII did something like 19.82M in sales as of ~ two years after its initial release. Given COD MW is off to a stronger start, it will probably hit 20M in sales. I don't have any  reason to believe that the strong launch momentum won't continue.

Patmo

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Re: ATVI - Activision Blizzard
« Reply #88 on: December 06, 2019, 08:06:32 AM »
Me: LoL is an old game and all games have a limited life, Rito will need to come out with new games soon
Genius: u DiDnT dO Ur rEsEaRcH, NERD  8)
Rito: Hey guys, we're happy to announce we're working on a half dozen AAA titles!
Also Rito: Hey guys, we set up a publishing co to collaborate with independent developers so we can churn out lots of single player games!
Genius: SurprisedPikachu.jpg