Author Topic: PTON - Peloton  (Read 19213 times)

wescobrk

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PTON - Peloton
« on: December 12, 2019, 04:13:08 PM »
This is purely speculation but I'm inclined to put on a small position amidst the controversy over the "sexist"commercial. 70% short. A squeeze can easily bump this from $30 to $40.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2019, 06:41:04 AM by Parsad »


Gregmal

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Re: Peloton
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2019, 04:28:26 PM »
I definitely have a short bias towards this, however agree. Specifically with the Citron short endorsement the other day. What most dont realize is that the more exposed these things become to the premature short attacks, the more resilient they become to them, and ultimately, the longer they stay elevated and/or become prone to rip hard the other way.

Sullivcd

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Re: Peloton
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2019, 06:01:49 PM »
Watching basketball right now and have seen multiple commercials for exercise equipment with a built in screen airing a personal trainer leading a session. No moat

Cardboard

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Re: Peloton
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2019, 06:32:18 PM »
I like the wife in the ad: hot but, kind is my kind  ;)

wescobrk

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Re: Peloton
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2019, 07:03:07 PM »
Watching basketball right now and have seen multiple commercials for exercise equipment with a built in screen airing a personal trainer leading a session. No moat

I don't understand why anyone would pay $2k for a bike. I don't understand how it has a moat, yet, according to their investor presentation, they have 94% retention and are grew 110% year over year. Within 3-5 years I see where Citron is coming from but he is crazy if he thinks this is going to $5 in the coming weeks just like he and Whitney Tilson thought Tesla was going below $100.

Lakesider

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Re: Peloton
« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2019, 07:09:10 PM »
Its a status symbol, its why people buy designer sunglasses rather than high street ones.

Gregmal

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Re: Peloton
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2019, 07:17:41 PM »
100% correct observation wescobrk. While all the value investor fanboys often quote things about "the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term", very few actually get it. At least not in any sort of useful way and that is why they underperform greatly.

Unsophisticated investors(generally speaking) are unknowingly the voting machine. Sophisticated investors, largely think and convince themselves they are the weighing machine because they bust out the calculators and spreadsheets and run DCF analysis and all that mumbo jumbo. The unsophisticated tread water until the tide goes out, and the weighing machine crowd sits around underperforming, clueless as to why. The real opportunities are when the two converge; aka a catalyst. Others call it timing.

If you are looking to short Peloton, wait til theres a catalyst. Until then you'll just ride the wave of the voting machine; which if I had to guess, is probably up, short term.

Artha158

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2019, 07:15:57 AM »
+1

TorontoRaptorsFan

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2019, 08:14:45 AM »
I bought a Peloton and love it. I use it about 5-6 days a week.
Wide variety of instructors and levels for everyone. I find the workouts challenging. The customer base is very loyal to the product.
Especially during the cold winter months it's far easier to workout using my Peloton then go to the gym early in the morning.

chesko182

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Re: Peloton
« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2019, 08:14:55 AM »
Watching basketball right now and have seen multiple commercials for exercise equipment with a built in screen airing a personal trainer leading a session. No moat

I don't understand why anyone would pay $2k for a bike. I don't understand how it has a moat, yet, according to their investor presentation, they have 94% retention and are grew 110% year over year. Within 3-5 years I see where Citron is coming from but he is crazy if he thinks this is going to $5 in the coming weeks just like he and Whitney Tilson thought Tesla was going below $100.

from what I understand, the 94% retention is very inflated because they were locking in customers for 12-18 months with special offers/free trials so when those subs come off that window there should be a pretty significant increase in churn.

Source and disclaimer: I read this on Twitter from multiple people who follow it more closely than I do.
twitter: @chesko182

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