Author Topic: PTON - Peloton  (Read 19346 times)

brisbane

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #10 on: December 13, 2019, 09:00:33 AM »
I bought a Peloton and love it. I use it about 5-6 days a week.
Wide variety of instructors and levels for everyone. I find the workouts challenging. The customer base is very loyal to the product.
Especially during the cold winter months it's far easier to workout using my Peloton then go to the gym early in the morning.

Agree, it's a quality product. The hardware alone is priced competitively with similar-quality bikes, and the all-in monthly cost (assuming you are taking advantage of the 0% financing offer) make a lot of sense vs. gym memberships if 2+ people are using it.

A lot of people on this board (see the Restoration Hardware thread) seem to think that just because a product doesn't have value for them it doesn't have any value. A brand is a very powerful thing!

I think the bigger issue is how faddish it is, macroeconomic/demographic tailwinds to support growth, how many people will continue to use the bike for 5+ years, etc... But I don't see it being displaced easily by a competitor. There are scale benefits to acquiring music rights and talent, building a huge content library of on-demand rides, and for many people (not myself) the community is important.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2019, 09:03:26 AM by brisbane »


chrispy

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #11 on: December 13, 2019, 10:21:41 AM »
My wife and I bought one, canceled our gym membership, and are enjoying it for all of the reasons described above.

Peloton has become synonymous with home workouts with instructors. How much of a fad is the $$$ question

CorpRaider

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #12 on: December 13, 2019, 10:34:31 AM »
Boomers, it's a lifestyle brand/media platform/network/saas business, just like go pro.

brisbane

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #13 on: December 13, 2019, 10:44:07 AM »
Boomers, it's a lifestyle brand/media platform/network/saas business, just like go pro.

Go Pro was a SaaS business?

Cigarbutt

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2019, 11:09:42 AM »
I looked into Peloton's numbers and report that it won't stay on the watchlist.

Some people do benefit from the external reinforcement of a 'community' but wonder how this kind of specific moat can be maintained.
Training has been, and will be, a matter of hype, to a large and recurrent extent.

Two weeks ago, I set up my TACX trainer (bought years and years ago at 249$ CDN) and, over the years, have tried different setups + or - online connections or screens. This year's setup is the ideal one, at least for me. Although less than 5% of time spent on the saddle is achieved inside, the orientation of the stationary bike is best lined up with a window, through which I can visualize what it's going to be like for real in a few weeks, out there in the wild.

My humble experience when paths cross with 'community' training enthusiasts is that they like to talk about the value of their bikes and are usually OK with short and high intensity segments although they typically are no challenge when any kind of endurance is concerned. It seems to me that training, pretty much like investing, is best done alone. Riding with the peloton is fun but there's nothing like being able to detach and forget about the crowd.

nspo

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Re: Peloton
« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2020, 08:26:54 PM »
100% correct observation wescobrk. While all the value investor fanboys often quote things about "the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term", very few actually get it. At least not in any sort of useful way and that is why they underperform greatly.

Unsophisticated investors(generally speaking) are unknowingly the voting machine. Sophisticated investors, largely think and convince themselves they are the weighing machine because they bust out the calculators and spreadsheets and run DCF analysis and all that mumbo jumbo. The unsophisticated tread water until the tide goes out, and the weighing machine crowd sits around underperforming, clueless as to why. The real opportunities are when the two converge; aka a catalyst. Others call it timing.

If you are looking to short Peloton, wait til theres a catalyst. Until then you'll just ride the wave of the voting machine; which if I had to guess, is probably up, short term.
+1

misterkrusty

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #16 on: February 17, 2020, 07:19:45 AM »
Peloton has a lockup expiration coming up on March 24th, which will increase the float from ~40M to 280M shares.  That might be a catalyst.

chrispy

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2020, 05:00:11 AM »
No thoughts on the stock but I am very happy to have this bike at home right now

Read the Footnotes

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2020, 05:07:20 AM »
No thoughts on the stock but I am very happy to have this bike at home right now
There's still time. Andrew Left has a plan for how you can still get one delivered to your door from Amazon for $12. This should still be possible in spite of the pandemic.

https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Citron-Research-Presents-Peloton-Investors-Pedaling-Themselves-into-Frenzy.pdf

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: PTON - Peloton
« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2020, 07:18:46 AM »
Great product with a moat that shorts love to hate but customers swear by. Reminds me of a certain EV company.

One problem I have w co is the management incentive plan that effectively allows for 5% dilution a year for 10 years. They also pulled lockup back to February. Suspicious actions, not very shareholder oriented.