Author Topic: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development  (Read 16122 times)

petec

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2019, 08:38:08 AM »
Well if there was deep value then, there certainly is now  :(


WayWardCloud

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2019, 11:36:38 AM »
Any particular reason for the recent drop?

bizaro86

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #22 on: May 23, 2019, 12:08:25 PM »
There was a big spike down in AECO prices, although it has now recovered today. Maybe that's it?

50centdollars

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #23 on: May 23, 2019, 12:16:28 PM »
It probably is because of the AECO drop. They have 2019 exposure tied 63% to AECO (72% sold forward), 25% to Henry hub and 12% to Dawn/Vuntura.

At prices down here, you would think insiders would be buying. Anyone have any ideas why they haven't? They have been selling all the way down.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 12:22:33 PM by 50centdollars »
50centdollars

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #24 on: May 23, 2019, 01:30:14 PM »
If you guys truly want exposure to Canadian natural gas I would recommend BIR and nothing else: low cost, low decline rate and they have highly profitable condensates. Very good CEO IMO. Everything else has been a disaster.

Similar multiple per flowing as PEY, same price to book, quite a bit cheaper on reserves per boe, 75% of PDP NAV vs 90% cheaper on EV/DACF, better balance sheet.

If you want to make a straight call on natural gas then you have more exposure with PEY but, you are paying more than a safer BIR. And if you really want to make that call on AECO, then buy futures.

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petec

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2019, 06:10:05 AM »
Peyto seem to think the new NGTL temporary service protocol is a game changer, as it sorts out access to storage until egress is increased permanently starting 2021:
http://www.peyto.com/Files/PMReport/2019/PMR20191003.pdf

Does anyone more knowledgeable than me have a view?

awindenberger

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #26 on: November 19, 2019, 04:26:05 AM »
Peyto seem to think the new NGTL temporary service protocol is a game changer, as it sorts out access to storage until egress is increased permanently starting 2021:
http://www.peyto.com/Files/PMReport/2019/PMR20191003.pdf

Does anyone more knowledgeable than me have a view?

No view regarding NGTL, but I've been building a decent position in PEYTO under $3/sh USD. Lower gas prices for longer will help them long term because they actually have a low cost structure.

petec

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #27 on: November 19, 2019, 06:04:30 AM »
Peyto seem to think the new NGTL temporary service protocol is a game changer, as it sorts out access to storage until egress is increased permanently starting 2021:
http://www.peyto.com/Files/PMReport/2019/PMR20191003.pdf

Does anyone more knowledgeable than me have a view?

No view regarding NGTL, but I've been building a decent position in PEYTO under $3/sh USD. Lower gas prices for longer will help them long term because they actually have a low cost structure.

Agreed.

The debt worries me, but the rapidly falling decline rate makes it a lot easier to generate cash.

Out of interest, why $3/share? What's your valuation method?
« Last Edit: November 19, 2019, 06:12:45 AM by petec »

ValuePadawan

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #28 on: November 20, 2019, 12:29:01 PM »

Agreed.

The debt worries me, but the rapidly falling decline rate makes it a lot easier to generate cash.

Out of interest, why $3/share? What's your valuation method?

The way I've been viewing the industry at the moment is that no capital is going into Canadian oil and gas in fact it is running south as quickly as possible eg Encana.

Because of their lack of access to capital and lower Aeco prices the last few years only the low cost producers or those who hedged their prices far into the future a few years ago will continue to be profitable. Because of this, capital spending on increasing capacity has shrunk and many companies seem to be on a rice and beans diet and wait until egress comes online. Peyto being a low cost producer is still profitable even after the abysmally low price in the third quarter.

If prices stay low for a few years I see Peyto continuing to be profitable as they increase their liquids revenue, pay down debt slowly and pay their dividend which right now is yielding 8ish%. However if egress comes in and prices begin to rise there is considerable upside. I see it as a heads I win tails I don't lose much situation.

This is my first post after reading as a guest for years I'm glad to finally be on here and welcome all criticism or opposing opinions.

awindenberger

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Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Reply #29 on: November 20, 2019, 08:28:42 PM »
Peyto seem to think the new NGTL temporary service protocol is a game changer, as it sorts out access to storage until egress is increased permanently starting 2021:
http://www.peyto.com/Files/PMReport/2019/PMR20191003.pdf

Does anyone more knowledgeable than me have a view?

No view regarding NGTL, but I've been building a decent position in PEYTO under $3/sh USD. Lower gas prices for longer will help them long term because they actually have a low cost structure.

Agreed.

The debt worries me, but the rapidly falling decline rate makes it a lot easier to generate cash.

Out of interest, why $3/share? What's your valuation method?

Hah, no particular reason for under $3/share. I've been watching PEYTO for awhile and was ready to buy under $10 earlier this year, but got really busy with work and couldnt decide what other position to sell, so I ended up getting lucky to miss most of the last leg down.

I agree strongly with ValuePadawan. Right now Peyto as the low cost producer has been able to remain profitable amidst a deep and long lasting bear market, particularly with AECO. They've taken steps to mitigate the pricing issues which will start to kick in more in the next couple years.