Author Topic: PWE - Penn West Petroleum  (Read 525297 times)

Liberty

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1580 on: November 28, 2019, 10:58:57 AM »
Seriously, if you are good enough at swing trading around your core position that you are out of the hole on this level of a disaster investment, you should stop investing in companies and focus all of your time on swing trading. Also, congratulations if that is true.

I did not say that we were out of the hole.

We are also both wise enough to recognize that one does not have to touch the underlying shares to swing trade.
OBE has a thriving option market - all you had to do was write calls, keep the premium, and reinvest it in new shares at the end of the specific time period. Then let the market work very hard, to offer you a lower re-entry price ;)

SD

There's no such thing as a free lunch. That's not how options work.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2019, 12:21:22 PM by Liberty »
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muscleman

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1581 on: November 28, 2019, 10:59:56 AM »
Seriously, if you are good enough at swing trading around your core position that you are out of the hole on this level of a disaster investment, you should stop investing in companies and focus all of your time on swing trading. Also, congratulations if that is true.

I agree. It is far easier to be good at one thing than trying to be good at two things. If SD is so good at swing trading, it makes sense to just focus on getting better and better at that. Also, there is no such a thing as house money or own capital. The moment you make some profits, that becomes your own money.
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SharperDingaan

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1582 on: November 28, 2019, 11:02:35 AM »

https://www.inplayoil.com/sites/2/files/documents/press_release_sept_2018_-_disposition_increased_capex_and_guidance_-_final.pdf
This is Sep-2018, 72% liquids, at West Pembina. There are others in the Cardium as well, with similar liquids content, and the same year. The numbers are not definitive, but there are hard evidence (not guesses) as to what high liquids Cardium production, is actually worth.

SD

Well, that was done for 250 boe/d in Oct 2018, when WTI was at $70.....  I don't think OBE can get anything close to it for now. Frankly, I would be happy if OBE can fetch what Pengrowth got in their recent sale, $33K/boe for all of OBE's 27000 boe/d production.

You need to re-check your data
https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/OilPrice

Sep-2018, WTI was indeed USD 70.07, the differential was USD 29.70, and WCS was USD 40.37
But Oct-2019, WTI was USD 53.96, the differential was USD 12.00, and WCS was USD 41.96
Todays net price for WCS is HIGHER than it was back then - so if the price was 65K/flowing boe ...  should it not be at least that in today's, more profitable environment.

If you didn't pick that up (an easy test), you really need to be critically asking yourself why ...
You genuinely didn't know ? or was it because your information came from a heavily biased source  ;)

SD



Liberty

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1583 on: November 28, 2019, 12:50:48 PM »
It's impressive how asserting things in a confident tone and implying things without really saying them will keep some people believing you all the way down...

This stock is down 99.7% from peak and 99% since this thread was created. Nobody has made money on this, except management through salaries, and maybe someone that was short from the start (which I haven't seen in this thread, and I've read all pages), and even then we'd have to look at borrow and option costs vs. the opportunity cost of just owning an index that went up massively during that same period (so the net loss is even bigger than 99.7%, as crazy as that sounds--from OBE peak, SPY is up 182% and NASDAQ 291%, so the delta is around 3-4x, and if you beat indexes (why invest actively otherwise?), it's even more).

This is a very volatile stock that is basically an equity stub, so at some point it may spike, maybe 50% or 100%, who knows, and then some people will say they were right about it, just had to be patient, etc. I know that day is coming. But I'm also pretty sure that the odds that their average cost basis + opportunity cost will be anywhere close to the bottom tick is very low... So let's be careful about bagholder-accounting of only looking at the last trade rather than all the capital used and over what period. When things go down this much this fast, you need multi-baggers just to partially get out of the hole, it's almost impossible.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2019, 06:17:37 AM by Liberty »
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muscleman

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1584 on: November 28, 2019, 04:22:31 PM »
It's impressive how asserting things in a confident tone and implying things without really saying them will keep some people believing you all the way down...

This stock is down 99.7% from peak and 99% since this thread was created. Nobody has made money on this, except management through salaries, and maybe someone that was short from the start (which I haven't seen in this thread, and I've read all pages), and even then we'd have to look at borrow and option costs vs. the opportunity cost of just owning an index that went up massively during that same period (so the net loss is even bigger than 99.7%, as crazy as that sounds--from OBE peak, SPY is up 182% and NASDAQ 291%, so the delta is around 3-4x, and if you beat indexes (why invest actively otherwise?), it's even more).

This is a very volatile stock that is basically an equity stub, so at some point it may spike, maybe 50% or 100%, who knows, and then some people will say they were right about it, just had to be patient, etc. I know that day is coming. But I'm also pretty sure that the odds that their average cost basis + opportunity cost will be anywhere close to the bottom tick is very low... So let's be careful about bagholder-accounting of only looking at the last trade rather than all the capital used. When things go down this much this fast, you need multi-baggers just to partially get out of the hole, it's almost impossible.

Yep. That's exactly what's going on. It didn't pass my smell test since day one but SD just kept talking convincingly.
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Joe689

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1585 on: December 02, 2019, 11:04:13 AM »
Another CEO change. 

Now the hedge fund manager is running the show... an oil company


Joe689

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1587 on: December 09, 2019, 09:42:38 AM »
Some action.  There is almost that 100% from low.   Dead cat?  Or something is coming. 

FFHWatcher

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1588 on: December 09, 2019, 10:45:28 AM »
Some action.  There is almost that 100% from low.   Dead cat?  Or something is coming.

If it's not a dead cat bounce then why aren't insiders buying?

Joe689

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1589 on: December 09, 2019, 10:58:13 AM »
The easy answer is "Strategic Alternatives".    Really never seen insider trading during a strategic review process.  Not to mention, this process involved marketing of several packages.    Before review, Peace River was trying to close for 3 months