I'm not sure if I should call this an "arb opportunity" or a "lottery ticket". Walgreens certified compliance on May 8th and the FTC has 60 days (less now) to respond.

It seems to me that there are three possible outcomes:

1. FTC approves the takeover, with RAD being bought for between $6.50 and $7.00 depending on the number of stores the FTC wants divested. Assume a $6.50 takeover price, buying today at $3.65 yields a 71% return in less than 60 days.

2. FTC does not allow the takeover. RAD falls, likely quite a lot, and some private equity firm steps in. RAD has value even without the takeover and in the right hands it should be worth more than $3.65 it trades at today

3. Takeover does not go through, company flounders and goes bankrupt, with the shares going to zero.

This seems high risk, high reward. Thoughts anyone?

Full disclosure - I nibbled today

cheers

Zorro