Author Topic: NYT - New York Times  (Read 3042 times)

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13155
  • libertyrpf.com
    • http://www.libertyrpf.com
Re: NYT - New York Times
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2020, 08:23:44 AM »
My bad, I didn't look at the top of this thread, it was already posted... Apologies. I guess it counts as bumping it up. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


SlowAppreciation

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
    • Slow Appreciation
Re: NYT - New York Times
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2020, 11:14:32 AM »
My bad, I didn't look at the top of this thread, it was already posted... Apologies. I guess it counts as bumping it up. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'll take it!

OnTheShouldersOfGiants

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 42
Re: NYT - New York Times
« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2020, 09:41:03 AM »
Slowappreciation, great work. I was unaware of the transformation that has taken place at the NYT. I appreciate you sharing the presentation.

zicaminvestor

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 1
Re: NYT - New York Times
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2020, 01:24:51 PM »
Slowappreciation, great work. I was unaware of the transformation that has taken place at the NYT. I appreciate you sharing the presentation.

Agreed, awesome deck. Perhaps you're the reason why the stock was up so much today?!

Foreign Tuffett

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1385
Re: NYT - New York Times
« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2020, 04:14:27 PM »
Good job on the presentation; clearly lots of thought, time, and effort went in to it.

A few things:

1) On page 161 you model $1.2 billion in "other revenues." Do you can have a breakdown somewhere of how you came to that number?

Based on the numbers you gave on previous slides, TTM print and print ad revenues were almost $830 million, but obviously are in decline (I don't think you'll get any disagreement from anyone there). How much print revenues baked in to the "other revenues" number?

2) johnny's thoughts are similar to the ones I had when I first saw this thread. Trump, whether you love him or hate him, is an incredibly polarizing President and the NYT has, with some degree of success, set itself in opposition to his Presidency. This is no different than how good the Obama Administration was for Fox News.

I would also argue that the "Trump bump" was not a one-time thing tied to the 2016 election. Trump is like the 24/7 news cycle anthropomorphized. What happens when the Trump tailwind is gone?

3) Finally, I would push back hard on that 30 million potential subs number. If we assume that the 25% international, 75% domestic mix you provide continues going forward, then to get to ~30 million subs the NYT would need ~22.5 million domestic subs. The total population of the USA is ~320 million. One of out every 14 or 15 men, women, and children in the US eventually subscribing to the NYT at $100 a year is prima facie absurd.
Former Teldar Paper Vice President

SlowAppreciation

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
    • Slow Appreciation
Re: NYT - New York Times
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2020, 02:19:32 PM »
Good job on the presentation; clearly lots of thought, time, and effort went in to it.

Thank you, I appreciate that.

Quote
1) On page 161 you model $1.2 billion in "other revenues." Do you can have a breakdown somewhere of how you came to that number?

Based on the numbers you gave on previous slides, TTM print and print ad revenues were almost $830 million, but obviously are in decline (I don't think you'll get any disagreement from anyone there). How much print revenues baked in to the "other revenues" number?

Looking out ~ 5 years, probably something like this. Though the farther out you go, the more print—and print advertising in particular—will decline.
  • $500M print sub
  • $100M print ad
  • $300M digital advertising
  • $300M "Other"
Quote
2) johnny's thoughts are similar to the ones I had when I first saw this thread. Trump, whether you love him or hate him, is an incredibly polarizing President and the NYT has, with some degree of success, set itself in opposition to his Presidency. This is no different than how good the Obama Administration was for Fox News.

I would also argue that the "Trump bump" was not a one-time thing tied to the 2016 election. Trump is like the 24/7 news cycle anthropomorphized. What happens when the Trump tailwind is gone?

This has been by far the biggest pushback on this presentation. I think many believe if Trump loses re-election, NYT loses all momentum and may even start shedding some of the new subs. But we always live in unprecedented times, and crazy things are always happening. So to me, producing high-quality journalism around those events seems timelessly valuable.

Trump surely brought in more new people to NYT than would have otherwise. But if he loses, I don't think sub adds stop, nor that existing subs. Definitely a good chance I'm wrong, but I feel like the risk/reward is in my favor. Time will tell.

Quote
3) Finally, I would push back hard on that 30 million potential subs number. If we assume that the 25% international, 75% domestic mix you provide continues going forward, then to get to ~30 million subs the NYT would need ~22.5 million domestic subs. The total population of the USA is ~320 million. One of out every 14 or 15 men, women, and children in the US eventually subscribing to the NYT at $100 a year is prima facie absurd.

Yeah this I think is a more valid criticism than the dependency on Trump. And I think you're right that with today's product @ $100/yr, you're not going to get 22.5m domestic subs. But they can get really aggressive with price, where at a certain point each new sub is pure profit.

And they're only going to keep investing more in their product. So you may not get 22.5M people paying $100/yr for the News. But will you get a few million paying for cooking, or games, or podcasts, or parenting content, or video (live news? books? etc.)? And could you then up-sell those people by bundling with other stuff, like News? Maybe....

Honestly there's a lot they can do now that all the digital infrastructure is built and they have a customer base that is generally affluent and engaged with the product. Who knows what it looks like, but I think they have a good foundation in place and am excited to see where it goes.

Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5718
    • Porfolio
Re: NYT - New York Times
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2020, 03:23:11 PM »
I sub to NYT and WaPo. I seem to read way more WaPo than NYT, but then I had just WaPo app on mobile. Installed NYT app now, opened it, but it did not look that great. Maybe I'm accustomed to WaPo.

Not sure if I'll continue to sub both long term. Honestly I'm probably fine without either of them. Might have to try to unsub and see if I really miss the access. IMO newspaper subs are way below Netflix in addictiveness.
I also sub to paper Barron's and I'd prioritize Barron's way above NYT and WaPo. But that's a vertical, not general news.

NYT tried to upsell me, but I'm not really interested in their other content.

I think the thesis is interesting. Spreading/growing could work out. E.g. I'd love if they (or someone else reputable) spreading internationally started providing in-depth Lithuania local news coverage. Right now there's only crappy local news portal. Probably too small market though.

I'm hesitant about their spread into other content. Not sure they have moat or quality or whatever. E.g. I look at computer games news sometimes. It seems that there's this Forbes journalist who's really good in covering stuff interesting to me. Not sure how the heck Forbes ended up with a good gaming journalist and if they care about it and if they will sustain it. Just an observation that NYT won't necessarily dominate verticals just because of their mainstream newspaper content/app/journalists/etc.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2020, 03:25:13 PM by Jurgis »
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"