Author Topic: SFIX - Stitch Fix  (Read 34195 times)

SHDL

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #60 on: April 17, 2019, 07:10:05 AM »
I agree with pretty much everything you wrote. 

My wife is now completely sold on Stitch Fix, btw.  They must now have at least 70% of her total apparel spending.


cameronfen

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #61 on: April 17, 2019, 07:13:28 AM »
^ to add on no one has the data on what styles people want other than SFIX.  You have that virtuous flywheel.  Also if you look at other ecommerce companies (Etsy, Wayfair), many ecommerce companies survive Amazon when it moves into their markets. It's the retailers that suffer. 

ajc

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #62 on: June 06, 2019, 06:51:44 AM »

Earnings call
https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/d4vx87vw

Shareholder letter, earnings slides, and financials
https://investors.stitchfix.com/static-files/dbfc1359-c683-4b73-b27f-07e5370cfda2





Encouraging earnings report and super informative conference call Q&A. Revenue grew 29%, gross margin improved, balance sheet is solid, Style Pass has increased client spend, Style Shuffle has given them a ton of data and helped them retain more first-time Fixers, plus the part in the call about them being quicker to adapt to trends because of better insights and higher inventory turnover was interesting from a competitive standpoint. I also liked how they're taking a conservative approach to the UK and think it's great that Kids is performing well given how quickly little folk tend to grow out of clothes. That could become a nice vertical for them.

That said, I've sold some of my position. It was 25% or so of my portfolio on January 1st and it has returned 70% since. Currently I'm more bearish at a market-level on growth and tech stocks than I have been for years, so I've been raising cash and limiting equity exposure. It's still my largest position and I like it long-term, but for now I think it's prudent to cut back so I've trimmed quite a bit. I also have one or two questions about whether clients might decrease Stitch Fix spending in a recessionary environment and how the stock price would react. I'm not crazily concerned because I think the average Fixer is less price-sensitive than folks at the budget end of the market, but it's something I keep in mind.

Anyway, so far this has been a decent investment for me and I'm still confident in management and their ability to continuously evolve and adapt the business model over time.



ajc

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #63 on: June 25, 2019, 01:11:07 PM »

Sold most of my Stitch Fix.
Still think it's a great company, but I'm very concerned with valuations in the new tech IPO sector currently. If multiples fall back to reality, everything in the space will likely drop far down with it.
I wrote about my valuation fears here (https://twitter.com/tonyjclayton/status/1118205158721249280) and here (https://twitter.com/tonyjclayton/status/1142741798554624000), for those wondering about the rationale.
My view is if the sector is genuinely in bubble-like territory, then it's better to accept mediocre returns for a year or three instead of trying to time my exit exactly on the stroke of midnight.
The latter is not something I'm sure I know how to do, while the former is something I think I can say is the case with a relatively high degree of certainty.


mattone

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #64 on: July 30, 2019, 09:13:15 AM »

Castanza

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #65 on: July 30, 2019, 10:00:35 AM »
AMZN launching Personal Shopper for $5/month - now directly competing with SFIX.

https://www.vogue.com/article/amazon-prime-personal-shopper

https://www.amazon.com/b?linkCode=w50&imprToken=VNrUraIaqFY8nbN5wg7ajA&slotNum=1&node=19190471011&ref_=pss_fq

I always though SFIX would be a good acquisition target for Amazon. I wonder if that will ever been in the cards?
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Saluki

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #66 on: July 30, 2019, 10:21:17 AM »
AMZN launching Personal Shopper for $5/month - now directly competing with SFIX.

https://www.vogue.com/article/amazon-prime-personal-shopper

https://www.amazon.com/b?linkCode=w50&imprToken=VNrUraIaqFY8nbN5wg7ajA&slotNum=1&node=19190471011&ref_=pss_fq

I always though SFIX would be a good acquisition target for Amazon. I wonder if that will ever been in the cards?

It's very possible.  Amazon tried to take on Zappos (which I loved, and didn't mind paying extra for) in the shoe market and couldn't make any headway so they just offered Tony Hsieh a ton of money and told him he could run it like a Berkshire subsidiary (hands off) and he took the deal.   
If it's important, do it every day. If it's not important, don't do it at all.  -Dan Gable

SHDL

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #67 on: August 23, 2019, 05:30:59 PM »
Just a heads up for anyone who has an appetite for GARP investing after a nice red day.  The stock price has come down significantly over the last two months or so and is now back to where it was in December, short interest is way up & so is implied volatility.  Mr Market really hates this stock now, it seems.  The general rockiness in the retail sector and the introduction of Amazon’s “me too” service may have something to do with it, but even so the level of negativity implied by the stats is quite something. 

I already had a small flyer position but I just increased it to something more meaningful.  It’s still a high-risk-high-reward type of investment in my book but I think the odds are in my favor now. 

SHDL

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #68 on: September 01, 2019, 08:57:01 AM »
Stitch Fix just acquired what I believe is an early stage startup called Finery:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/stitchfix-acquires-digital-wardrobe-startup-finery-201018873.html

Based on what I've seen I think the intention here was to acquire some IP/technology that will allow Stitch Fix to see (with permission, of course) what clothing items their members have purchased from other retailers online.  If so, this is a good move.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 09:01:40 AM by SHDL »

cameronfen

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Re: SFIX - Stitch Fix
« Reply #69 on: September 01, 2019, 12:04:17 PM »
Stitch Fix just acquired what I believe is an early stage startup called Finery:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/stitchfix-acquires-digital-wardrobe-startup-finery-201018873.html

Based on what I've seen I think the intention here was to acquire some IP/technology that will allow Stitch Fix to see (with permission, of course) what clothing items their members have purchased from other retailers online.  If so, this is a good move.

I'm not in SFIX anymore (I have a rule if I want to buy a stock but its expected return is worse than google I just buy google). However, often when a company is slowling down its growth (ie the C-suite knows it but its unclear for investors) they will buy another company to distract wall street.  I don't know if this is what management is semi conciously doing but I wouldn't be surprised.