Author Topic: ATCO - Atlas Corp  (Read 186634 times)

Packer16

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2010, 09:36:21 PM »
Has anyone run across a site that has current charter rates for ships?  TIA

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gaf63

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2010, 08:56:16 AM »
Packer, here are 2 sources.  The first shows rates from German brokers , the next an article on generalized rates for different size ships.  Interesting that at the height of the market 3 mo. rates for 3500 teu was 100% > than SSW rates , but at moment
they are about 28% of SSW rates.  No wonder CSAV wants to renegotiate.

http://www.vhss.de/containership_time-charter-rates_eng.php#

Mostly small ships , but last chart shows rates for 3400 14t/teu

http://www.joc.com/maritime/container-ship-charter-rates-rise-demand

gaf63

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2010, 07:15:37 AM »
 Seaspan Corporation (NYSE:SSW - News) announced today the delivery of its 44th and 45th vessels, the Guayaquil Bridge and the COSCO Japan.

The Guayaquil Bridge, a 2500 TEU vessel delivered on March 5, 2010, was built by Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. It is on charter to Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. ("K-Line") of Japan under a ten-year, fixed-rate time charter. The Guayaquil Bridge is the first of seven Seaspan vessels to be chartered to K-Line.

The 8500 TEU COSCO Japan, which was constructed by Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., was also delivered on March 5, 2010. The COSCO Japan is on charter to COSCO Container Lines Co., Ltd. ("COSCON") of China under a twelve-year, fixed-rate time charter. It is the third of eighteen vessels to be chartered by Seaspan to COSCON.


Kiltacular

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2010, 08:38:51 AM »
Seaspan reports:

http://ir.seaspancorp.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=452161

"- Achieved utilization of 99.7% for the quarter and year;

- Accepted delivery of seven newbuild vessels in 2009 and three vessels to date in 2010 to increase the operating fleet to 45 vessels. With the delivery of an additional 23 vessels, Seaspan is expected to grow its contracted revenue stream to approximately $7 billion;

- Strengthened our capital structure and financial flexibility through completion of the $200 million aggregate issuance of the Company's Series A Preferred Stock;

- Reduced our equity capital needs by up to 80% to $180 to $240 million from $900 million at the beginning of 2009. Deferred some of our equity needs by a year to second quarter 2012 from second quarter 2011;

- Paid a third quarter dividend of $0.10 per share on November 19, 2009;

- Paid a fourth quarter dividend of $0.10 per share on February 12, 2010, increasing cumulative dividends to $6.49 per share; ............................."

Packer16

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2010, 10:01:48 AM »
Thanks for the rates source gaf.  It looks like SSW is streaming along with a current CAD yield of 19% and low-end forward 23% yield if they finance the rest of their ships using equity only.  If this was trading like a triple-net real estate REIT at about an 8% yield, it would have a price in the low 20s on current yield and the high 20s on forward yield assuming all equity dilution (which management has stated they will avoid at all costs).  In addition, these guys are opportunistic buyers who could also buy up some capacity if it is available on a liquidation basis. 

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RusticFrank41

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2010, 11:43:22 AM »
Packer, I'm not sure what you mean by a CAD 19% yield. SSW pays 40 cnts/yr and the price is $10. That's a 4% yield to me. You must be referring to something else? fdef

lessthaniv

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2010, 12:08:19 PM »
Rustic,

You need to have a look at distributable cash. It's more meaningful long term. Seaspan decreased their dividends significantly from $1.91/share to $.40.share. You are referring to the current yield ($.40/$10). Packer is concerning himself with what Seaspan has the ability to pay long term based on cashflows.

Remember, Seaspan cut the dividend opportunistically to retain the money within the company and to assist in paying for the newbuild commitments (which are already under charter). At some point Seaspan will have built and delivered all their newbuilds and they will have little need to retain capital in the business. It's extremely likely that Seaspan will then reinstate their higher distribution policy.

Realize that while dividends received have decreased recently, the company has continued to improve their financial strength over the last 18 months.

I think most retail investors are looking at current yields which I believe is a big mistake.

Packer, I can tell by your comments that you've mabye had your  "A Ha" moment with regards to Seaspan?  Let's hope we're right!

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lessthaniv

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2010, 12:23:49 PM »
Sorry, I should have added this:

At some point Seaspan will have built and delivered all their newbuilds and they will have little need to retain capital in the business. It's extremely likely that Seaspan will then reinstate their higher distribution policy...

It's also likely that Seaspans distributable cashflow can grow north of their previous levels ($1.91/share) even including potential dilution. Over the next couple of years, the operating fleet of Seaspan will grow by at least 14 ships (I did the math on this in a previous post taking into account some pretty conservative assumptions, imo).

I think it's safest to just go with around $1.90/share again after dilution, but you can do the math any way you want to satisfy yourself.

In the end, it would appear there is a wide margin between the current yield, and the likely future yield including dilution. (nice margin of safety).
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mranski

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2010, 01:04:46 PM »
Are you accounting for all depreciation in your analysis?


lessthaniv

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Re: ATCO - Atlas Corp
« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2010, 07:32:38 PM »
mranski,

you can obtain the distributable cash for 2009 from the press release. About $155M. The company explains how that number is calculated as follows. (Note 2)

Cash available for distribution is a non-GAAP measure that represents
    net earnings adjusted for depreciation, amortization of deferred
    charges, non-cash undrawn credit facility fees, write-off of deferred
    financing fees on debt refinancing, non-cash share-based compensation,
    dry-dock adjustment, non-cash interest income, change in fair value of
    financial instruments, interest expense, cash interest paid at the
    hedged rate and other items that the Company believes are not
    representative of its operating performance. Please read "Reconciliation
    of Non-GAAP Financial Measures for the Quarter and Year Ended
    December 31, 2009 and 2008 - Description of Non-GAAP Financial
    Measures - A. Cash Available for Distribution" for a description of cash
    available for distribution and a reconciliation of cash available for
    distribution to net earnings.
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