what I should have written was , back to the 1.90 level that less>iv mentioned above.
This idea was Less > iv and J east's around a yr. ago now, and both have written posts on SSW, with
Less>iv posting extensive numerical analysis. I want to thank both of you. For I think this will be at least a 3 bagger on my original investment, and am looking to invest more.
The problem I had a year ago was not understanding the interest swaps, and the possibility of charters breaking their contracts. Still dont really have a grip on the swaps but they made it through the last yr. w/o problems with the counterparties and banks. As to contracts , close to the worse yr. ever for container co. and no one , at least yet , has broken their contracts. CSAV restructured and asked for a redo , but SSW said no and the contracts are intact. HL also asked but were told no, and for now the contracts are intact. CSAV at moment only has 2 ships on charter, with 2 more to be delivered which could be a problem but a small one. So , this gives me confidence that the charter contracts are solid and will remain in place for their time period.
CEO Wang stated in the CC that there are 10 more ships to be delivered this yr. , and that some charter parties have asked for move ups to their delivery dates. So it appears with container prices improving the lines are thru the worst of the crisis and are ready to take their ships. The over supply issue of idle ships is still there but slow steaming, scrapping and improved demand for containers is lessening its effect. So I believe SSW is through the worst , and will start delivering their ships , increasing their cash flow and dividend. As to numbers, even if they dilute up to 115 mil shares, and pay out 75% of cad(when all ships are delivered), the div. should range from 1.70 to 1.95. W/O dilution, much much better,
GAF