Author Topic: DIS - Disney  (Read 57369 times)

Castanza

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #200 on: November 13, 2019, 10:56:44 AM »
10M subs already!

Yes - but how many subs after the free week is over and every-one has binged watched all of the StarWars/MCU movies.   ;)

wabuffo

Is there any breakdown of which subs are standalone vs bundled with other services (Verizon)?


wabuffo

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #201 on: November 13, 2019, 11:20:17 AM »
There's also reports in the media industry that Disney did some panic-buying back of their streaming rights on more titles than the original business plan in order to beef up Day 1 content.  Particularly, Marvel Comic Universe titles. 

This is a purely defensive move by Disney and it will cost them money.   I think they were getting $2-$3B in annual royalty revenue (not sure about these revenue numbers) with little opex from Netflix and other streaming services.   That is rapidly going to zero and they will have to make it up via subscriptions.  At $80 per year per subscriber, they will need 25m-37m subscribers just to recover the revenue

But their new annual opex will be significantly higher due to exclusive content creation (eg. Mandolorian) + technology/digital streaming costs.  They may end up in a good place -- but in the short term, this is profit-destructive (even at 5x their Day 1 signup numbers).   At 10m paying subscribers, they are incinerating money.

The streaming service business is not very profitable as many services basically give it away from a revenue perspective while scripted content creation costs for talent are going through the roof.

Good for the broadband internet providers, though  8)

wabuffo
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 11:28:16 AM by wabuffo »

TorontoRaptorsFan

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #202 on: November 13, 2019, 12:35:20 PM »
10M subs already!

Yes - but how many subs after the free week is over and every-one has binged watched all of the StarWars/MCU movies.   ;)

wabuffo

They're only releasing episodes from their original programs weekly. The first episode of the Mandolorian was done extremely well. No expense was spared in the special effects of the show and the ending of the episode had a very nice cliffhanger. The second episode is coming out on friday. At the conclusion of the series either a new Star Wars or Marvel original series will begin. A lot of the Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar movies/shows are being released in 4K and Dolby Atmos.

Gregmal

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #203 on: November 13, 2019, 12:46:06 PM »
10M subs already!

Yes - but how many subs after the free week is over and every-one has binged watched all of the StarWars/MCU movies.   ;)

wabuffo

They're only releasing episodes from their original programs weekly. The first episode of the Mandolorian was done extremely well. No expense was spared in the special effects of the show and the ending of the episode had a very nice cliffhanger. The second episode is coming out on friday. At the conclusion of the series either a new Star Wars or Marvel original series will begin. A lot of the Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar movies/shows are being released in 4K and Dolby Atmos.

Hopefully someone figures out that the binge watch model ultimately sucks for the consumer. At least I feel it does, when it comes to ongoing series. Its bad enough with shit like HBO where you wait 18-36 months for a new season. But with Netflix, you legit watch the entire season in a couple days and then are often waiting even further. At the least, killing that, and doing the one episode per week would be great. Or taking it a step further and not releasing the first 12 episodes until 18 or so are finished. This way, you can finish up season 2 while one is running, and then shoot season 3 in the lead up to season 2. That would significantly knock the lag time down and keep viewers plugged in. Yea, yea, I know its added cost...but with certain shows, there isn't exactly uncertainty regarding whether or not it will get renewed.

wabuffo

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #204 on: November 13, 2019, 12:48:44 PM »
A lot of the Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar movies/shows are being released in 4K and Dolby Atmos.

which appeals to the nerdy 1% of the 10m subs who actually care about this stuff.

I thought the Mandalorian pilot was meh... like the Star Wars recent vintage of movies - it looks like it was written (and rewritten) by committee.  The best stuff is not coming to Disney+, the rest of Disney is going to see to that.  This is the problem with successful businesses - they can't bring themselves to fully commit to do what it takes to make their new business successful if it means destroying/cannibalizing their legacy businesses.

wabuffo
(one of 1% videophile nerds)
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 12:52:18 PM by wabuffo »

Castanza

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #205 on: November 13, 2019, 01:16:01 PM »
10M subs already!

Yes - but how many subs after the free week is over and every-one has binged watched all of the StarWars/MCU movies.   ;)

wabuffo

They're only releasing episodes from their original programs weekly. The first episode of the Mandolorian was done extremely well. No expense was spared in the special effects of the show and the ending of the episode had a very nice cliffhanger. The second episode is coming out on friday. At the conclusion of the series either a new Star Wars or Marvel original series will begin. A lot of the Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar movies/shows are being released in 4K and Dolby Atmos.

Hopefully someone figures out that the binge watch model ultimately sucks for the consumer. At least I feel it does, when it comes to ongoing series. Its bad enough with shit like HBO where you wait 18-36 months for a new season. But with Netflix, you legit watch the entire season in a couple days and then are often waiting even further. At the least, killing that, and doing the one episode per week would be great. Or taking it a step further and not releasing the first 12 episodes until 18 or so are finished. This way, you can finish up season 2 while one is running, and then shoot season 3 in the lead up to season 2. That would significantly knock the lag time down and keep viewers plugged in. Yea, yea, I know its added cost...but with certain shows, there isn't exactly uncertainty regarding whether or not it will get renewed.

From a consumer perspective who would want that though? It's like Pandora's box. With today's mindset of gotta have it now one would think it's difficult to keep subscribers if you shift your platform to the 1 episode a week model if the competition manages to pump out binge worthy content at a faster rate. The streaming wars is beginning to look like a race off a cliff. At what point will plethora of original content not keep the consumers satisfied enough to continue a subscription? Personally, I think the platforms that don't offer some form of live tv alongside original content will eventually begin to see their subscription rates dwindle if sub prices continue to rise. The amount of big names Netflix has been using can't be cheap. 

I've used Hulu Live for a year or so and have enjoyed the platform. It has some decent original content but also has live TV which satiates you when you're waiting for the next season of whatever it is you were watching. I do think the original content on Netflix is generally better.

Gregmal

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #206 on: November 13, 2019, 01:26:14 PM »
There should be a middle ground between gotta have it now and wait 2 years for a new season. Sure theres people with nothing to do, and gotta have it now means they blow through House of Cards new season in one day. Then theyre stuck waiting years for the next one and probably forget what ever happened the previous season by the time the new one rolls around. Get on a schedule were you are releasing new content every 6-12 months(in terms of shows), while also dragging along viewers by forcing them to be disciplined. I know I kept Showtime for an extra few months because of a couple series they had going that only did one episode a week. Same with HBO recently, until Righteous Gemstones and Succession finished up. If those shows come back in 6 months, vs 12-18, I probably dont cancel and if I do, the in between lag time is less. IE company has me as a monthly paying sub for longer.

People will literally just watch and then cancel unless something new comes along. Thats why live sports and news is going to be crucial. Its silly, and part of the reason I am short NFLX, to assume people will just put up with same old, same old, forever, WHILE being OK with price hikes. I mean the whole basis of the streaming revolution is because people are friggin cheap and dont want to pay $70 a month for shit they dont find interesting.


glorysk87

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #207 on: November 13, 2019, 01:39:46 PM »
10m subscribers on the first day. That's incredible. Some analysts thought it would take Disney a year to reach 10 million subscribers.

It's really not day 1 though. They've been running the marketing machine at full tilt for weeks now, and pre-orders have also been open for months.

glorysk87

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #208 on: November 13, 2019, 01:41:57 PM »
I sold half my position today. Even with extremely generous assumptions, the best case scenario is that the stock offers ~10% annual return from here. In a best case scenario. Not great risk/reward in my view.

Liberty

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #209 on: November 20, 2019, 08:05:01 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNb2PhiwOF0

40-min interview with Kevin Mayer, who oversees Disney+
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen