Author Topic: TIF - Tiffany & Co  (Read 9166 times)

fareastwarriors

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #40 on: September 14, 2020, 09:12:22 AM »
What are the longs doing here?

It hasn't dropped much even with new news.

Market seems to think there will be another deal at similar (but slightly reduced) price?


swropfef

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #41 on: September 15, 2020, 06:36:08 AM »
TIF is now actually suing LVMH :

Tiffany & Co. Press Release [September 9th 2020] : Tiffany Files Lawsuit Against LVMH To Enforce Merger Agreement.
[Link].

Talk to me about a deal going down the drain! [Some lawyers in Paris and New York now likely sitting rubbing their hands : "Fees, fees, fees!!"


Of course they are suing. This deal is done for, but TIF probably will get a little bit of cash out of it to settle. The undisturbed, pre COVID price of TIF is ~$85/ share if I see this correctly.


Hi, why do you think this deal is done for?

John Hjorth

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #42 on: September 15, 2020, 02:25:17 PM »
TIF is now actually suing LVMH :

Tiffany & Co. Press Release [September 9th 2020] : Tiffany Files Lawsuit Against LVMH To Enforce Merger Agreement.
[Link].

Talk to me about a deal going down the drain! [Some lawyers in Paris and New York now likely sitting rubbing their hands : "Fees, fees, fees!!"


Of course they are suing. This deal is done for, but TIF probably will get a little bit of cash out of it to settle. The undisturbed, pre COVID price of TIF is ~$85/ share if I see this correctly.
Hi, why do you think this deal is done for?

Thank you for your post, swropfef, [-and a belated welcome to you here on CoBF!, btw!].

No matter what happens going forward, it'll certainly be interesting to observe!
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
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swropfef

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #43 on: September 16, 2020, 05:20:06 AM »
Thanks John. A bit more than just interesting to me, as I am long the stock and therefore need to know why ppl think the deal is done for. We will know more when LMVH files their suit.

br

John Hjorth

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #44 on: September 17, 2020, 03:27:12 PM »
Wasn't there earlier today in this topic a post by fareastwarriors in this topic with a link to a Reuters piece about how the litigation is evolving [, which is now gone from here]?

- - - o 0 o - - -

I may have been hallucinating though, because of stress related to IRL stuff.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 03:32:00 PM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Spekulatius

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #45 on: September 17, 2020, 04:06:44 PM »
TIF is now actually suing LVMH :

Tiffany & Co. Press Release [September 9th 2020] : Tiffany Files Lawsuit Against LVMH To Enforce Merger Agreement.
[Link].

Talk to me about a deal going down the drain! [Some lawyers in Paris and New York now likely sitting rubbing their hands : "Fees, fees, fees!!"


Of course they are suing. This deal is done for, but TIF probably will get a little bit of cash out of it to settle. The undisturbed, pre COVID price of TIF is ~$85/ share if I see this correctly.


Hi, why do you think this deal is done for?

Because the positions seem hardened and I don’t think Arnault is someone who flip flops.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

John Hjorth

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #46 on: September 17, 2020, 04:47:48 PM »
Because the positions seem hardened and I don’t think Arnault is someone who flip flops.

Thank you for elaborating here, Spekulatius,

The deal going south does not imply that Mr. Arnault has lost interest in acquiring TIF. [I'm speculating here.]
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

fareastwarriors

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #47 on: September 17, 2020, 06:03:41 PM »
Wasn't there earlier today in this topic a post by fareastwarriors in this topic with a link to a Reuters piece about how the litigation is evolving [, which is now gone from here]?

- - - o 0 o - - -

I may have been hallucinating though, because of stress related to IRL stuff.

You're not hallucinating.  I did post a link to a Reuters piece but I deleted it a bit later.

Here's the repost.  :)


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tiffany-m-a-lvmh/lvmh-tiffany-wrangle-over-court-dates-after-acquisition-turns-sour-idUSKBN268276

LVMH, Tiffany wrangle over court dates after acquisition turns sour

fareastwarriors

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #48 on: September 17, 2020, 06:06:38 PM »
Because the positions seem hardened and I don’t think Arnault is someone who flip flops.

Thank you for elaborating here, Spekulatius,

The deal going south does not imply that Mr. Arnault has lost interest in acquiring TIF. [I'm speculating here.]

Investors still think a some kind deal will happen though? Undisturbed $TIF price was around 80s? We are still in 110-120 a share...

Or has the market moved so much that even with a deal, this price seems fair
« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 06:50:00 PM by fareastwarriors »

Cigarbutt

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Re: TIF - Tiffany & Co
« Reply #49 on: September 18, 2020, 04:42:17 AM »
Three scenarios:
1-LVMH is 'forced' to respect its already negotiated part of the deal, outcome: 135
Tiffany's case appears strong but Mr. Arnault is an artist. So odds of this seem relatively low.
2-LVMH obtains, somehow, a lower deal around 120-125
i think that's the most likely scenario because LVMH still likely wants Tiffany's and may be using the moot aspects of force majeure to obtain concessions.
3-The deal falls apart, outcome (depends on timing): stock gravitating down to 80-100
This is just part of the game now and may involve some kind of buyer's remorse although it seems this sub-component is unlikely as extravagance is part of LVMH's DNA. i'd say the market is quite optimistic about this deal, the timing of the deal if any (this could be a lengthy process) and Tiffany's underlying business at this point

The following includes a Seeking Alpha link whose analysis allocate a higher weighting to scenario 1 than my humble assessment and is mostly useful for the summary of the legal tangle. It also contains a Reuters link which depicts the kind of street fighter that Mr. Arnault really is. The second link is from a French publication, Marianne. The article is in French and that part is not really helpful but it contains, in an annex, supposedly, a translated copy of the letter sent by someone who is the equivalent of Secretary of State. The letter appears to be the result of a friendly command coming from a friend asking something that sounded like: I need an official letter linking a jewelry store acquisition to a national security threat. It's been done before. The letter, in itself however, does not change IMO the relative weights attributed between scenario 2 and 3.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4374923-tiffany-louis-vuitton-hasnt-produced-original-letter-yet?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget
https://www.marianne.net/economie/lvmh-l-etrange-lettre-qui-permis-bernard-arnault-de-repudier-tiffany



The best trade would have been to short in late February. Now, this is low conviction and not convincing from a weighted return perspective. Famous last words.

Irrelevant addition:
American friends may be dismayed if they read Marianne more often. Typical media in the US have some kind of ideological leaning and tend to be consistent about it. Marianne is all over the place. Conventional vs unpredictable.