Author Topic: TLRD - Tailored Brands  (Read 14934 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2019, 06:10:55 PM »
I see an improving balance sheet story here...

Q3 2019 / Q3 2018 shows a debt reduction of $325m...this might have been part of the 25bp TL reduction negotiation?

The lost Macy's contract deal likely speaks to inventory reductions? 

op cash flow is marked at $200m for 6 months, sub capex of $25m, sub divi of $20m, sub $42m int exp, you still get  $113m over 6 months ... 10x this figure gives you $1B mcap from $650m mcap, what about the other half of the year?

despite the naysayers, the stock appears to have a material margin of safety

I don't like fashion businesses having seen the cycles, but cheap suits and tux rentals will always be a part of the American fabric ;)

I have no comment on the valuation, but I think we will see even formal events (wedding etc) evolve with attending people wearing casual clothing. NYC will probably be behind the eight ball with this trend, but I have seen this already in CA.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.


walkie518

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2019, 03:51:12 PM »
big move today on ... nothing? in anticipation of an awful quarter?

walkie518

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2019, 05:32:10 PM »
well, here it is

https://content.equisolve.net/_e1b04ac72d1e6d911df0e3222f59eb4e/menswearhouse/news/2019-03-13_Tailored_Brands_Inc_Reports_Fiscal_2018_Fourth_1865.pdf

interesting point is that the company paid down $232m in debt yet has a $580m mcap...AH looks like a bloodbath, my guess is it moderates prior to open

this might create an interesting buying opportunity

if sales are on a slow decline, TLRD could still buy all of the stock before sales disappear...

Okonomen

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2019, 01:15:02 AM »
Here's an interesting view on TB:

https://sumzero.com/headlines/telecom/SATS/444-the-top-stocks-for-2019

Scroll down and click "Download the Top Stocks for 2019 PDF Here" and you'll go to a page with all the cases




heth247

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2019, 08:39:54 PM »
Anybody still following this stock? It has come down a lot recently. My main concern is the debt, but the banks seemed comfortable with it and even lowered their interest rate last year. Why market is punishing it so hard?

mwtorock

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2019, 07:01:43 AM »
Anybody still following this stock? It has come down a lot recently. My main concern is the debt, but the banks seemed comfortable with it and even lowered their interest rate last year. Why market is punishing it so hard?

there is a broad sell off in retailers due to bad earnings reported so far. Apparel is one of the worst industries among retailers.
then the tariffs are not helping, TLRD still source 40% i think from China if i remember correctly. and you have a CEO that promotes fashion, which translates to a lot more cap ex than before... TLRD is likely to cut estimates and guide lower, but the question stays if that has been baked into the price enough yet...

walkie518

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2019, 12:38:03 PM »
Anybody still following this stock? It has come down a lot recently. My main concern is the debt, but the banks seemed comfortable with it and even lowered their interest rate last year. Why market is punishing it so hard?

there is a broad sell off in retailers due to bad earnings reported so far. Apparel is one of the worst industries among retailers.
then the tariffs are not helping, TLRD still source 40% i think from China if i remember correctly. and you have a CEO that promotes fashion, which translates to a lot more cap ex than before... TLRD is likely to cut estimates and guide lower, but the question stays if that has been baked into the price enough yet...

The new CEO has a poor track record in retail despite having so many ideas. 

With him at the helm, it seems the board isn't making decisions in the best interest of the shareholders.

At the same time, if they know something we do not, or if TLRD can simply manage its debt, the stock could move materially in the other direction...

heth247

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2019, 04:06:55 PM »
Stock got hammered after earning release. Numbers not too bad, but the guidance is still awful. Don't understand why don't they just cut the dividend and buy back stock at this price. Even just paying off debt would be better capital allocation.

georgelisa0426

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2019, 04:15:21 PM »
Stock got hammered after earning release. Numbers not too bad, but the guidance is still awful. Don't understand why don't they just cut the dividend and buy back stock at this price. Even just paying off debt would be better capital allocation.

Buyback stock? Why repurchase shares of a sinking ship? The company is certainly in a secular decline. The economic landscape has changed tremendously. Debt paydown should be the utmost concern.

mwtorock

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Re: TLRD - Tailored Brands
« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2019, 08:16:01 PM »
Stock got hammered after earning release. Numbers not too bad, but the guidance is still awful. Don't understand why don't they just cut the dividend and buy back stock at this price. Even just paying off debt would be better capital allocation.

If they cut dividend, it would be a horrible drop in price now, e.g. GME. I think they want to show people that they are not concerned about cashflow and can keep up with the dividend and debt payments.