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General Category => Investment Ideas => Topic started by: JAllen on December 23, 2014, 08:14:26 AM

Title: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: JAllen on December 23, 2014, 08:14:26 AM
I know some people follow TPL because FRMO owns it.

"Texas Pacific Land Trust (NYSE: TPL)
announced today that it has entered into a contract for the sale of approximately 19,607 acres of land in Upton/Crane Counties, Texas for aggregate consideration of $19,840,000. The Trust will retain its oil and gas royalty interests in the acres being sold. The closing of the transaction is scheduled for January 15, 2015."

Original filing: http://stockbase.com/company/0000097517/filing/0000932440-14-000357 (http://stockbase.com/company/0000097517/filing/0000932440-14-000357)
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Liberty on December 23, 2014, 08:20:22 AM
Recent stock peak was market by publication of this very bullish story, which made it known to many people:

http://www.businessinsider.com/texas-pacific-land-trust-2014-8

Of course, soon after publication it fell almost 40%, but that's how this goes...
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Jurgis on December 24, 2014, 09:20:37 AM
Has anyone done a valuation on this? Or should I dig for Murray Stahl's 2005 (?) writeup?

At current price the earnings/FCF yield is very low. And the earnings/FCF are at fracking bubble levels that will drop with the current oil crisis. So based on earnings/FCF it seems overpriced against the top cycle numbers - double whammy.

That leaves us with asset based valuations. The land can be valued at some price, but like Buffett explicitly said about TPL - it's not liquid, so most valuations are overoptimistic. You can only sell few better parcels at reasonable prices.

My guess would be to wait until this crashes again to cheap baseline valuation. But perhaps someone has done conservative valuation that this is cheap even now?
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: NoCalledStrikes on December 24, 2014, 12:02:32 PM
For those of you unfamiliar with West Texas.... This land is completely, totally worthless except for its oil.  Calling this land barren is being generous. With only the most minor exceptions, the only land they sell is for operators to use for oil processing equipment, so don't take those numbers and multiply it across all their acreage.

In short, do not let yourself get seduced by any low dollar per acre valuations, the only valuations you should be concerned with is how much land is sitting on oil, everything else is noise.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ScottHall on December 24, 2014, 12:57:19 PM
For those of you unfamiliar with West Texas.... This land is completely, totally worthless except for its oil.  Calling this land barren is being generous. With only the most minor exceptions, the only land they sell is for operators to use for oil processing equipment, so don't take those numbers and multiply it across all their acreage.

In short, do not let yourself get seduced by any low dollar per acre valuations, the only valuations you should be concerned with is how much land is sitting on oil, everything else is noise.

I think NoCalledStrikes makes a good point here. The majority of this company's profits come from oil. It's basically an oil business with no capex requirements, so a royalty business.

The stock seems to price in a lot right now, even with its recent decline. I'd be interested at some point but unless I came across some particularly compelling piece of info, this is a pass for me for now.

Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Grossbaum on December 30, 2014, 02:57:16 PM
Any thoughts on the magnitude or timing of the benefit mentioned in Horizon Kinetics Jan 14 Commentary?

Quote
Although the Research Select strategy has held Trust shares since 2007, and even though theshares just about doubled during 2013, the position was added to late last year. The reason was an announcement, this past June, that Chevron and Cimarex, which both own land in Culberson County, Texas that was problematic to drill separately, combined their acreage in a joint venture so as to establish a major drilling program. This is located in what is known as the Delaware Basin, where, because of horizontal drilling technology, there now appear to be vast reserves of economically extractable oil and gas. Much of this is on former Trust acreage in which it retains a royalty interest in any production. The size of this program suggests that it has the potential to markedly increase the Trust’s revenues. Moreover, with this revenue increase, not only will the Trust be able to accelerate its share repurchases, it might also curtail land sales, such that the growth rate of acreage per share can accelerate yet further.

104,000 acres in the Chevron/Cimarex JV, although I don't know how much is on TPL royalties acreage.

The latest Cimarex investor presentation spends a fair amount of time on the Culberson county acreage.

It would be interesting to estimate the potential benefit from this, and see how much it could mitigate from the coming decrease in royalties from existing production. See if it is meaningful or not to an investment thesis.

Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: tytthus on December 31, 2014, 04:56:04 AM
Are TPL's royalties based on volumes or dollar amount sold?  I suspect dollar amount, but it's worth asking.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: wellmont on December 31, 2014, 08:39:12 AM
this is the kind of thing you throw a half percent at in 2009 type scenarios...
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Grossbaum on January 09, 2015, 11:48:46 AM
Attached xls is a high level summary of how I am thinking about TPL. I know just enough to be dangerous.

A couple assumptions I'm working off of are:
-total bbls/mcf produced (received through royalties) will not fall dramatically, even at $50-60bbl oil. The Permian seems to be among the best o&g acreage in the country. Yes, companies are dramatically throttling back 2015 capex budgets but that may shift production from what would have been sharp growth to mitigated growth.
- used $55/bbl oil, nat gas prices about the same as 2014; and essentially flat production volumes in 2015
- My understanding is that  the sundry income is not 1st order related to oil and gas prices. Rather the largest part of this line item is a fee paid for a right of way/easement. So long as the pipeline/road is there, the fee will be paid. My assumption is this will not be significantly reduced due to oil price declines. There is pipeline capacity being added in the Permian in 2015. I don't know whether any part of the pipes will be on TPL land. My thought is that this income stream will be flat in a low case scenario.

Working off those assumptions, 2015 cash flow may be about $27.5mm. I think it would be an attractive price to purchase the income producing stream for about $275m (see attached). Including the $30m in cash balance, we arrive at about $300m value. That leaves about $700m in value for the ~900k acres of land with surface rights.  ($1,000m mcap - $300m other = $700m).

That works out to be about $770/acre of west texas land. Average sales price has been about $515/acre over the last 4 years but very lumpy depending on what was sold.

It doesn't seem like low enough of a price yet, based on how I'm thinking about it.

Any other thoughts?
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: thepupil on January 09, 2015, 12:09:23 PM
I'd say you are thinking about the land incorrectly. The value of 95% of the land is whatever absolutely bare worthless land in texas sells for. $50 an acre? $100 an acre? I don't know. But it definitely is not $800. Timber REITs create good timberland for $1500 and there is no way you'd buy an acre of desert  scrubland for 1/2 that. The land has no real value except for some way OTM option that someone comes up with something to do with it.

The value of the land is the

income it generates (sundry + royalties)
+bare land value

I would personally capitalize the long lived royalties with a higher multiple than 10. These are diversified across a big swath of land and on a commodity that will be used for a very long time and the underlying fields have been producing for a really long time. It's not like this is a coal royalty MLP.  If I wanted  to be uber bulled up I'd say 15 or 20 or even 25. Also I see low probability upside in that this thing is very tax inefficient, could it convert to an MLP? but I'm guessing that the first 200 years of precedent would prevent that.

So I'd say you are too low on your royalty multiple, and way too high on your ex royalty ex sundry income land value. I'd want to pay $0 for that for it to be interesting.

I'd say $400MM-$900MM for royalty (ya it's a big range) + sundry and $0-$100MM for land.



Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: NoCalledStrikes on January 09, 2015, 12:34:56 PM
thepupil  +1

1. It is essential to break out the barren $100/acre land with the potentially high value land. 
2. I would also then suggest breaking out the 1/16 royalty land from the 1/64 royalty land as everything else being equal, the 1/16 land is worth 4 times more than the 1/64. 

Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Picasso on January 09, 2015, 01:27:31 PM
I remember looking to short this around $170 and just never pulled the trigger.  I just don't see how investors who purchased this at $240 are going to get any reasonable kind of return. 

You probably need to assign almost no value to the land given it is not liquid at all and the opportunity costs of sitting and waiting are massive.  Even if you get the stock trading at a discount to the asset values the returns are limited to the reduction in share count. 

This is the kind of stock I would buy at 50% under NPV which in this case might be around $750mm implying a buy price of around $40.  That also happens to be the average price of the stock in 2011/2012 when one could argue the future looked a lot brighter. 

I personally don't see the appeal.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: thepupil on January 09, 2015, 01:36:18 PM
the appeal is you have royalties and pipeline easements that seem to perpetually surprise to the upside. And you own a greater % of those each year. But the problem with that is as the stock goes up and up then the share count reduction becomes less potent and at some point becomes value destructive.

I'd probably be a buyer if it went down another 40%, but that's true of a whole lot of stocks and the cult of Stahl probably won't let that happen.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Picasso on January 09, 2015, 01:50:42 PM
the appeal is you have royalties and pipeline easements that seem to perpetually surprise to the upside. And you own a greater % of those each year. But the problem with that is as the stock goes up and up then the share count reduction becomes less potent and at some point becomes value destructive.

I'd probably be a buyer if it went down another 40%, but that's true of a whole lot of stocks and the cult of Stahl probably won't let that happen.

Isn't that appeal the equivalent of buying some good total-return bond fund (maybe Gundlach) and reinvesting the dividends?  Or buying some Oaktree convertible bond fund and reinvesting the dividends.

The total return on TPL from 1980 to 2012 was about 6% a year.  This stock goes through very long stretches of almost no movement and buying it after it's jumped up 3-4x in a few years seems to bet strongly against previous history. 

It will be interesting to continue watching.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: thepupil on January 09, 2015, 02:50:35 PM
and it's a 45 bagger since 1978 (EDIT: which is actually only an 11% CAGR!). entry point is obviously important. we agree that it's expensive.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: thepupil on January 09, 2015, 03:17:24 PM
http://www.horizonkinetics.com/docs/TexasPacificLandTrust%20TPL%20CRRMay95.pdf

It's instructive to read the original report at a MCAP of $63MM. Shares have been basically halved while net income multiplied 10 fold.

Clearly the original thesis was correct. I don't think a bond fund can do that. The oil linked royalty on diverse acreage with even more oil than expected + the right to run pipelines through that land was a lot more valuable than anyone expected.

But going forward I wouldn't want to count on similar growth.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on December 11, 2016, 11:00:10 AM

I would like to reopen this idea…Apache recently announced a significant new finding in the Southern Delaware Basin, of which TPL holds substantial interests in the region.   As Apache builds out across the region, TPL will effectively charge a small, very, very small fee for all sorts of services in which Apache needs for E&P development in the region.  This could take 10, 20 or even 30 years to playout at this point. 

Access to pipelines: you MUST pay TPL, access to water rights for fracking extraction: you MUST pay TPL, Access to road creation: you MUST pay TPL, To drill: You Must pay TPL…and the thesis goes on and on. 

So, effectively, how do you value a company which has no meaningful operations, no debt, 4 employees, basically cashes checks, and is mandated simply to buyback stock and pay a modest dividend???  TPL has retired approximately 92 million shares since 1888 and given this new finding, one could argue the rate of return could be material from here.  A parabolic rate of return at this point? 

I have no position in the stock – the name is highly, illiquidity, only trading about $10mm dollars worth of stock everyday.

Apache PR:  http://investor.apachecorp.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=988060
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: muscleman on December 11, 2016, 02:11:38 PM
Does anyone think Horizon's trading activity is a bit strange?
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97517/000151941816000030/sched13da.htm

They continued to buy and sell every day, and they buy at a slightly higher price than they sell.  :o
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on January 16, 2017, 08:39:26 AM
This is one of the most challenging and interesting securities to value.  I was informed that Jefferies is in the market bidding for a meaningful portion of stock…possible for an Activist looking to break TPL up into an MLP/REIT.  You could also see a reverse split to improve trading liquidity…which TPL did once before in 2007 I believe.  Of course the rise in the stock price is actually BAD, as the company acquires less and less shares through its pre-mandated buyback program.  This name isn’t for the faint of heart however, as the fundamentals are very unclear at this point.  I’ve heard bull cases for the name to go up 10X over the next 20years, as well as the bear-case.  It’s worth keeping an eye on the name if the market ever seriously corrects, and TPL falls 30% - 50% to start acquiring.  I have no position in TPL but find it a interesting self-liquidating land trust. 

Question to the board – what other self-liquidating companies are you following?
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on February 02, 2017, 07:07:52 PM
http://www.horizonkinetics.com/docs/Q4%202016%20Commentary_Final.pdf

The most complex STOCK (notice how I did not use BUSINESS, as TPL is effectively dirt and rocks) to analyze was recently mentioned during HK's 4th Quarter investor letter....HK owns around ~25% of this STOCK's outstanding market-cap...

Who knows...I am avoiding this right now - but find the STORY fascinating
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Tim Eriksen on February 02, 2017, 09:05:09 PM
Does anyone think Horizon's trading activity is a bit strange?
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97517/000151941816000030/sched13da.htm

They continued to buy and sell every day, and they buy at a slightly higher price than they sell.  :o

Why is HK not subject to the short-swing profit rule?  They own more than 10% therefore every sale should be able to be matched up to the lowest buy price in the last six months and the profit would go back to the company. 
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Hielko on February 03, 2017, 01:32:45 AM
Just guessing here, but maybe because TPL is a trust, not a company?
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: benhacker on February 04, 2017, 01:22:21 PM
I think they are reporting separate accounts so the selling / buying isn't for one fund... it's individuals, which is why buy / sells are at ask / bid respectively.

Above is my guess, but it answers both questions...
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on May 07, 2017, 11:58:38 AM
Makes you wonder...very well written article...I think there are analogies to TPL here...

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/frank-and-stevens-excellent-corporate-raiding-adventure/521436/

This is a cult stock, which is impossible analyze; which is significantly overvalued...this is literally dirt...DIRT...there is no 'business' here...

Sincerely,
ValueMaven
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: gg on May 07, 2017, 03:53:09 PM
Makes you wonder...very well written article...I think there are analogies to TPL here...

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/frank-and-stevens-excellent-corporate-raiding-adventure/521436/

This is a cult stock, which is impossible analyze; which is significantly overvalued...this is literally dirt...DIRT...there is no 'business' here...

Sincerely,
ValueMaven

I understand the similarities in that both companies clearly are operating on extraordinarily long time horizons (as far as shareholder returns and patience are concerned), but based on that article, I think much less patience is required for TPL investors. TPL's revenues are skyrocketing from all the recent drilling on their lands. So while that multi generational patience might still be needed for Tejon investors before they see value accrue through the income statement, with TPL, that's very much happening right now. Revenues were up this past quarter by around 140% iirc...
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sharad on May 10, 2018, 07:05:38 AM
Is anyone currently invested in this trust? Does anyone have any thoughts now that they are starting water operations?
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ScottHall on May 10, 2018, 07:15:21 AM
Is anyone currently invested in this trust? Does anyone have any thoughts now that they are starting water operations?

I am. I invested late last year after it finally clicking there's more to this business than most land traps.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sharad on May 10, 2018, 08:34:07 AM
Is anyone currently invested in this trust? Does anyone have any thoughts now that they are starting water operations?

I am. I invested late last year after it finally clicking there's more to this business than most land traps.

I did a quick back of the envelope calculation, and think they could perhaps hit $250m-300m in annual earnings in the next two to three years based on their water investments, at the expense of their lean business model (they have already added 2 dozen new employees, and I expect this to continue to rise as they add water capacity). In a couple of years time, I could see buybacks ramping up quite heavily, and the trust might split the subshares to create more volume to vacuum up shares.

This is all contingent on improved activity in West Texas, and further infrastructure projects in the region, supporting increased production.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ScottHall on June 27, 2018, 01:15:40 AM
Is anyone currently invested in this trust? Does anyone have any thoughts now that they are starting water operations?

I am. I invested late last year after it finally clicking there's more to this business than most land traps.

I did a quick back of the envelope calculation, and think they could perhaps hit $250m-300m in annual earnings in the next two to three years based on their water investments, at the expense of their lean business model (they have already added 2 dozen new employees, and I expect this to continue to rise as they add water capacity). In a couple of years time, I could see buybacks ramping up quite heavily, and the trust might split the subshares to create more volume to vacuum up shares.

This is all contingent on improved activity in West Texas, and further infrastructure projects in the region, supporting increased production.

The margins of the water business so far are quite astounding. I wonder what normalized margins will be, at scale? I added a little a few days back.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Hielko on June 27, 2018, 02:03:37 AM
I have to admit that I always liked the story of TPL... but I never see how it's cheap. Even at 250M-300M annual earnings in a few years time we are still talking about a P/E between 18 and 22. Maybe if that would be earnings into perpetuity that would be okay for a land company, but I don't know about that... you have to figure that there isn't a unlimited amount of oil and gas. Is it reasonable to expect they will still making this kind of money in 10 or 20 years time?
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Foreign Tuffett on June 27, 2018, 07:45:02 AM
I have to admit that I always liked the story of TPL... but I never see how it's cheap. Even at 250M-300M annual earnings in a few years time we are still talking about a P/E between 18 and 22. Maybe if that would be earnings into perpetuity that would be okay for a land company, but I don't know about that... you have to figure that there isn't a unlimited amount of oil and gas. Is it reasonable to expect they will still making this kind of money in 10 or 20 years time?

I think it's nearly impossible to answer that question with any degree of certainty. As we've all seen over the last decade, things can change extremely quickly in the US onshore E&P space. Right now the Permian is booming, ten years from now it may not be.

Shale oil wells have a rapid decline rate + a long tail of low BOE per day production. So you need drilling to continue at a certain level for production (and TPL's royalty revenues) to climb, or at least stay flat. How much future drilling will occur is largely dependent on the quality of TPL's acreage + how much quality acreage they have left + commodity prices + various idiosyncratic factors that may affect the Permian in general, and TPL's acreage in particular. Obviously no one can predict any of this precisely, but if you can just get the directionality right you can make a ton of $.

Contra Scott Hall, I don't think the idea of "normalized" margins in any part of the E&P space (which TPL has basically become a derivative of) is helpful. The only "normal" in commodity-based businesses is constant change.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sharad on July 16, 2018, 09:29:10 AM
Makes you wonder...very well written article...I think there are analogies to TPL here...

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/frank-and-stevens-excellent-corporate-raiding-adventure/521436/

This is a cult stock, which is impossible analyze; which is significantly overvalued...this is literally dirt...DIRT...there is no 'business' here...

Sincerely,
ValueMaven


The "dirt" is now worth billions:

https://www.nhregister.com/business/article/Worthless-just-two-years-ago-Texas-sand-now-13074856.php

Edwards runs a frack-sand mine. And those silos mark the presence of his rivals, who suddenly seem to be popping up everywhere. As he turns 360 degrees under the blistering midday sun, he calls out their names one by one: "Badger ... Atlas ... High Roller ... Alpine ... Black Mountain ... Covia."

Twelve months ago, none of them existed -- not even the mine owned by Edwards' employer, Hi-Crush Partners. It was the first of its kind here in West Texas. Day one was July 31, 2017. Ten others immediately followed. And another 10 or so are now hustling to get started.

Together, they will mine and ship some 22 million tons of sand this year to shale drillers all around them in the Permian Basin, the hottest oil patch on Earth. It is a staggering sum of sand, equal to almost a quarter of total U.S. supply. And within a couple years, industry experts say, the figure could climb to over 50 million tons.

David Cutbirth, the long-time mayor of the nearby town of Monahans, is dumbfounded by it all. Until the miners arrived, these dunes were a quasi-barren wasteland -- good only for weekend adventurers zipping around on buggies. And the price of sand was, well, zero. Today, it fetches $80 a ton, making this year's haul alone worth about $2 billion.




Correct me if I'm wrong, but TPL has never drilled the 1m acres of land it owns outright, 750k acres of which borders the N.M. counties in which XOM bought 250k acres for $6.6b from the Bass brothers (BOPCO).  With fracking, the sand, water, easements, and perpetual oil royalties all hold value (on the 450k acres it has "sold" in this fashion), let alone the oil on 1m virgin acres. While I understand everyone's hesitation, I'm unsure how everyone believes oil prices aren't now in their normal range ($65-85/barrel). The next few years will be very interesting, as the Delaware basin is only now being tapped in the same manner as the Midland basin within the overall Permian shale formation.

I'm long TPL. I believe there is still value to be had here.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: thepupil on July 16, 2018, 09:31:42 AM
Makes you wonder...very well written article...I think there are analogies to TPL here...

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/frank-and-stevens-excellent-corporate-raiding-adventure/521436/

This is a cult stock, which is impossible analyze; which is significantly overvalued...this is literally dirt...DIRT...there is no 'business' here...

Sincerely,
ValueMaven


The "dirt" is now worth billions:

https://www.nhregister.com/business/article/Worthless-just-two-years-ago-Texas-sand-now-13074856.php

Edwards runs a frack-sand mine. And those silos mark the presence of his rivals, who suddenly seem to be popping up everywhere. As he turns 360 degrees under the blistering midday sun, he calls out their names one by one: "Badger ... Atlas ... High Roller ... Alpine ... Black Mountain ... Covia."

Twelve months ago, none of them existed -- not even the mine owned by Edwards' employer, Hi-Crush Partners. It was the first of its kind here in West Texas. Day one was July 31, 2017. Ten others immediately followed. And another 10 or so are now hustling to get started.

Together, they will mine and ship some 22 million tons of sand this year to shale drillers all around them in the Permian Basin, the hottest oil patch on Earth. It is a staggering sum of sand, equal to almost a quarter of total U.S. supply. And within a couple years, industry experts say, the figure could climb to over 50 million tons.

David Cutbirth, the long-time mayor of the nearby town of Monahans, is dumbfounded by it all. Until the miners arrived, these dunes were a quasi-barren wasteland -- good only for weekend adventurers zipping around on buggies. And the price of sand was, well, zero. Today, it fetches $80 a ton, making this year's haul alone worth about $2 billion.




Correct me if I'm wrong, but TPL has never drilled the 1m acres of land it owns outright, 750k acres of which borders the N.M. counties in which XOM bought 250k acres for $6.6b from the Bass brothers (BOPCO).  With fracking, the sand, water, easements, and perpetual oil royalties all hold value (on the 450k acres it has "sold" in this fashion), let alone the oil on 1m virgin acres. While I understand everyone's hesitation, I'm unsure how everyone believes oil prices aren't now in their normal range ($65-85/barrel). The next few years will be very interesting, as the Delaware basin is only now being tapped in the same manner as the Midland basin within the overall Permian shale formation.

I'm long TPL. I believe there is still value to be had here.

I think he was talking about Tejon Ranch.

EDIT: though it's not clear
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sharad on July 16, 2018, 09:48:37 AM
I don't think Value Maven stated anything wrong when he called Tejon or TPL literally dirt. At the time, it appeared that's all they were. I wasn't smart enough to see value in TPL back then. But, with new fracking techniques and a few dozen hours of research, 10-K/10-Q reading, etc., I feel like I can see some more value in TPL, and I have seen more value than I first thought I'd see. And, due to the structure of the trust, all of the cashflow TPL has will be returned to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. With Horizon owning 25% of the company and many other long-time shareholders not selling, I think the pool of shares to repurchase continues to shrink as well.

I've read a few comparisons of TPL to a tontine. It certainly feels like it, and the acreage/share continues to rise each year. In a few years time, a smaller pool of shares will own most of the same acreage TPL has currently, and most of the 1m "virgin" acres will remain flush with whatever oil they hold.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sportgamma on March 26, 2019, 07:28:26 AM
Quote
On March 15, 2019, Horizon Kinetics, SoftVest Advisors, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, SoftVest, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership, Eric Oliver (collectively, “SoftVest Reporting Persons”), ART-FGT Family Partners Limited, a Wyoming limited partnership, Tessler Family Limited Partnership, a Wyoming limited partnership and Allan R. Tessler (collectively, “Tessler Reporting Persons”) entered into a Cooperation Agreement (as described in Item 6 of this Schedule 13D) (the “Cooperation Agreement”) with respect to Shares beneficially owned by them. No Shares were purchased by any Reporting Person at such time pursuant to the Cooperation Agreement, and thus no funds were then used for such purposes.

ITEM 4. PURPOSE OF TRANSACTION

Prior to March 15, 2019, Horizon Kinetics purchased Shares solely for investment purposes and without plans or proposals which would result in any of the matters described in Items 4(a)-(j) of the Instructions to Schedule 13D. However, as a result of the Cooperation Agreement described above, Horizon Kinetics will engage with the trustees and other representatives of TPL, investors and other industry participants to discuss various opportunities to maximize the value of TPL for the benefit of holders of Shares. Such discussions may include (1) the conversion of TPL into a Delaware corporation subject to modern governance principles, as permitted by TPL’s declaration of trust, (2) focusing on the establishment of an experienced team around TPL’s new water business, with clearly defined goals and objectives, or otherwise considering the separation or sale of such business to a third party with a retained royalty, and (3) the addition of Mr. Oliver as a trustee of TPL. Horizon Kinetics believes that the trustees of TPL should now fully explore these options, as well as any other opportunities available to maximize value for holders of Shares. In addition, Horizon Kinetics believes that the Trust should be more transparent and frequent on its updates to holders of Securities (e.g. drilling updates, drilled and uncompleted well updates, water production, water injection volumes, and engineering reports).

On March 4, 2019, the trustees of TPL announced that they will call a special meeting of holders of Shares on May 8, 2019 for the election of a new trustee of TPL to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Maurice Meyer III (such meeting, together with any adjournments, postponements or continuations thereof, the “Special Meeting”).

6

SoftVest Reporting Persons currently intends to nominate Mr. Oliver for election as trustee at the Special Meeting and, in connection therewith, solicit proxies from beneficial owners of Shares to vote for the election of Mr. Oliver as a trustee of TPL.

On March 15, 2019, Horizon Kinetics, SoftVest Reporting Persons and Tessler Reporting Persons entered into the Cooperation Agreement to support the election of Mr. Oliver as a trustee of TPL at the Special Meeting. The description of the Cooperation Agreement under Item 6 below is incorporated herein by reference.

Horizon Kinetics may also take other steps to increase value for the holders of Shares as well as pursue other plans or proposals that relate to, or would result in, any of the matters set forth in subparagraphs (a)-(j) of Item 4 of Schedule 13D (including those described in the second paragraph of this Item 4).

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1519418/000151941819000008/sched13da.htm
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on April 21, 2019, 04:56:19 AM
wow - what a few months does ... there is now a huge Activist fight in this company ... there is 1 seat open for a trustee and management is fighting back with all they have ... could be very interesting if either side wins  ...
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sportgamma on April 21, 2019, 08:50:21 AM
I wouldn't say it's "huge" but it is an interesting scenario. Because TPL is a trust and the trustees are practically hired for life, the "dissident" shareholders may have to wait for more than a decade for the next shareholder meeting...
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sharad on April 22, 2019, 08:42:25 AM
I wouldn't say it's "huge" but it is an interesting scenario. Because TPL is a trust and the trustees are practically hired for life, the "dissident" shareholders may have to wait for more than a decade for the next shareholder meeting...

It's not just the trustees, but the senior officers (CEO, CFO) that are hired for life. Here is an excerpt from the 10-K:

The Trustees hold office until their death, resignation or disqualification. In November 2016, the Trustees appointed Tyler Glover and Robert J. Packer as Co-General Agents of the Trust. The General Agent, Chief Executive Officer and Secretary and the General Agent and Chief Financial Officer hold office until their death, resignation, discharge or retirement. No Trustee or executive officer was selected to be an officer pursuant to any arrangement or understanding between him and any other person or persons other than the Trustees acting solely in their capacity as such.

Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97517/000009751719000015/tpl12-31x201810k.htm  (emphasis mine)


IMHO, it's unconscionable that the trust has been willing to continue to modernize the compensation for the trustees and senior officers, but have not modernized the Trust's charter simultaneously. Also notable is the low number of subshares trustees and senior officers own of the entity. I'm not sure how anyone can trust they have shareholders' best interests in mind. You can probably guess which way I'm leaning with my votes.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on April 30, 2019, 05:11:23 PM
This is becoming very interesting ...

It's amazing how much the company is fighting back!  This is getting nasty

I actually picked some up this afternoon ... the whole '1 share left' theory is very interesting -- ie: as the Trust buys-back stock ... what the heck happens? 

-VM
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Gregmal on April 30, 2019, 05:44:09 PM
Ive followed and owned this forever but my issue here is that at some point it seems that there is just so much money here that evil instinct will kick in and turn this into just another company. What I mean is that part of my original intrigue was that there is no real management, no business, no nothing really. Just sell a little land, buyback stock, and that is it. As the company's assets have proved dynamic and profitable to a greater degree than any expected, now all of a sudden you have operating businesses, G&A cost, proxy fights and people making business decisions that could backfire. Not sure how I feel about that.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on April 30, 2019, 06:03:31 PM
Very true - but management seems to be aggressively fighting back, while the Acitivsts have much clearer plans etc. I'd love to know what you think here in terms of upside and downside etc ... TPL is really such a unique security ... only 4 shareholder meetings in 30 years .. what the heck?!
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Gregmal on April 30, 2019, 11:26:43 PM
I will preface my statement with the disclaimer that I hate management teams that don't appreciate their own mortality. TPL is/was a monster, with or without them. So I've been massively turned off by the credit they want to give themselves for the performance. I also dont like the degree to which they move forward with hostility, towards the company's largest shareholder; all while they themselves own little stock.

At the same time, to me it appears the dissident wants to orchestrate a conversion of sorts; again, I liked this how it was.

Water rights? I've looked at quite a few companies in this space; and its just a very tough, capital intensive business. I dont like that they are now speculating on new land purchases. If it aint broke, dont fix it. TPL was a gem. It's literally gone full cycle. From off the radar under appreciated, to.. well, something those with and those without vested interested are fighting over... all trying to push something that I am not sure I agree with.

Just my 2c. I'd love to offer upside/downside for you. But my thesis never really relied on that if that makes sense. This was just a great place to be, in a dynamic set of off the radar assets that had optionality. Now to me, the optionality is limited because of the risks that this gets fucked up. I think the easy money has been made and while I still appreciate what this is, I can't really say that what its become is what I appreciated it for.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Gamecock-YT on May 01, 2019, 03:01:07 AM
Story got picked up by the FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/7a355406-5fc4-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c


Personally, story just reeks of the trustees trying to avoid their gravy train coming to an end.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on May 02, 2019, 06:30:10 PM
This is really turning into one of the nastiest activist fights I have ever seen.  It is very clear to me that the Trust's management has milked this company -- and then some!!  They need to go.

This really is one of the most unique securities in the world.  I am voting for Eric Oliver without question.  The more I study this - the more exposure I want.  I just wonder how much shareholder capital is being BURNT through this whole stupid process?   

Others?  Thoughts?
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on May 04, 2019, 07:09:39 AM
the more I study this 'trust' the more amazed I really am.  In 1932 there were 500M shares O/S, now there are only ~7.7M  shares and net income has exploded recently.  Part of me feels like I am very late to the story here - the other part says that the fun is really just starting as NI explodes higher, conversion to a C-Corp, and possibly even more aggressive buybacks.  No question in my mind Eric Oliver is the right person for the job here.  Sure there is price risk, not really business risk - but with over $100M on the B/S and literally no debt, management needs to start buying back more stock.  Maybe even a 10-1 stock adjustment. 

May 22nd is a critical day for this company.  I really wonder how much is being spent blocking shareholders from getting representation

BTW - does anyone have Horizon's 2005 research update on TPL?  I've found a lot of interesting material, but that one is missing from my files.  Thanks!

-VM
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sharad on May 08, 2019, 07:46:56 AM
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97517/000121390019008010/defa14a050819_texaspacific.htm

They delayed the vote to June 6th.  ::)
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on May 08, 2019, 06:01:36 PM
The Trust is an utter JOKE and wasting a massive amount of shareholder capital which could be used to aggressively buyback stock here. 
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sharad on May 21, 2019, 12:04:25 PM
The Trust is an utter JOKE and wasting a massive amount of shareholder capital which could be used to aggressively buyback stock here.

It's getting worse. They have now decided to delay the rescheduled June 22, 2019 meeting to a to be determined future date. I have never seen anything like this:

Texas Pacific Land Trust Files Lawsuit Against Eric Oliver for Securities Law Violations
BusinessWire
Texas Pacific Land Trust (NYSE: TPL) (the "Trust") today announced that it has filed a lawsuit (the "Lawsuit") in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas against Eric L. Oliver for violations of federal securities laws in connection with the proxy contest Mr. Oliver initiated to be elected as a trustee of TPL. The Trust also announced that the special meeting of shareholders previously scheduled to be convened on May 22, 2019, and to be adjourned until June 6, 2019, has been postponed until further notice.

The Lawsuit alleges that Mr. Oliver made material misstatements and failed to disclose material information relevant to shareholders and that Mr. Oliver has acted in concert with an undisclosed group including Santa Monica Partners, Universal Guaranty Life Insurance Company and potentially other third parties. The declaratory and injunctive relief sought in the Lawsuit seeks to compel Mr. Oliver to provide complete and accurate information about his actions and his past in order to allow shareholders to make a fully informed decision.

"We have repeatedly raised serious questions about Mr. Oliver's background and potential conflicts of interest, to which he has refused to provide an adequate reply," said Trustee David E. Barry. "Election of an unqualified or conflicted trustee could cause significant harm to the Trust and its shareholders, so we have no choice but to ask the Court to help us protect shareholders' interests. We have postponed the special meeting to ensure that shareholders have the opportunity to cast a fully informed vote."

Shareholders will be notified of the exact date, time, and location of the rescheduled Special Meeting at a later date.

Sidley Austin LLP is representing the Trust.

Forward-Looking Statements

This release may contain statements that are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements contained in this release, other than statements of historical fact, are "forward-looking statements" for purposes of these provisions, including statements regarding Texas Pacific's future operations and prospects, the markets for real estate in the areas in which Texas Pacific owns real estate, applicable zoning regulations, the markets for oil and gas, production limits on prorated oil and gas wells authorized by the Railroad Commission of Texas, expected competitions, management's intent, beliefs or current expectations with respect to Texas Pacific's future financial performance and other matters. Texas Pacific cautions readers that various factors could cause its actual financial and operational results to differ materially from those indicated by forward-looking statements made from time-to-time in news releases, reports, proxy statements and other written communications, as well as oral statements made from time to time by representatives of Texas Pacific. The following factors, as well as any other cautionary language included in this release, provide examples of risks, uncertainties and events beyond our control that may cause Texas Pacific's actual results to differ materially from the expectations Texas Pacific describes in such forward-looking statements: global economic conditions; market prices of oil and gas; the demand for water services by operators in the Permian Basin; the impact of government regulation; the impact of competition; the continued service of key management personnel; and other risks and uncertainties disclosed in Texas Pacific's annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We undertake no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or other factors that affect the subject of these statements, except where we are expressly required to do so by law.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190521005896/en/

SOURCE: Texas Pacific Land Trust
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on June 16, 2019, 07:57:29 AM
Has anyone been following this really, really stupid saga???  I cant wrap my head around what is going on here...
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sunrider on June 17, 2019, 07:49:00 AM
Has anyone been following this really, really stupid saga???  I cant wrap my head around what is going on here...

Quite simple. Entrenched management (trustees are appointed for life) has been called out for their not very good management by activist investors. One of three trustee seats came up, management nominated someone they like, activists want someone they think is better. Now they are suing each other. My view is that the activists are right and the company would be better of with a trustee who understands capital allocation - also, it seems to be the case that the trustees are not empowered to spend trust cash for proxy contests, which they now have ...
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sharad on June 19, 2019, 02:18:29 PM
They're going to write a show on this one...damn.

https://tpltblog.com/2019/06/19/amended-counterclaims-barrys-election-challenged/

For the record, David Barry has been a trustee since 2016. Wow.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Hielko on June 20, 2019, 03:04:21 AM
Following this owe with interest from the sidelines :)
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Gregmal on October 31, 2019, 06:24:34 PM
Solid numbers today

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17682859-texas-pacific-land-trust-announces-third-quarter-2019-financial-operating-results

Ive started rebuilding this position under $600 as its come back in. This once mysterious and hard to value company seems to becoming a little easier to value as the revenue numbers continue their ascent. Curious if anyone else still follows or if this is now a forgotten favorite of yesteryear.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Foreign Tuffett on October 31, 2019, 07:49:59 PM
Solid numbers today

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17682859-texas-pacific-land-trust-announces-third-quarter-2019-financial-operating-results

Ive started rebuilding this position under $600 as its come back in. This once mysterious and hard to value company seems to becoming a little easier to value as the revenue numbers continue their ascent. Curious if anyone else still follows or if this is now a forgotten favorite of yesteryear.

As I mentioned last year, something like this is beyond my ability to model. See the below short pitch on Whiting Petroleum for an example of how complex trying to model shale E&P stuff can be. Type curves, EURs, decline rates, etc. Additionally, TPL is basically a play on drilling in just a few West Texas counties, so IMO to bullish this you have to have a strong opinion about future oil and gas activity in those particular counties. I am mildly bullish on oil, but this is in the too hard pile for me.

https://twitter.com/EnergyCredit1/status/1189920022375862274 (https://twitter.com/EnergyCredit1/status/1189920022375862274)
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on November 01, 2019, 04:29:01 AM
I own it - at a fairly higher level from here ...

Yes - rev's are exploding, with the forced buyback etc as per the charter ... at some point in the future, there will literally be just 1 share left of TPL  Havent added - but was encouraged by last nights #s.  They need new corp governance,  Extremely interesting special situation IMHO

how do you model something with 1) exploding net income and revs/margins 2) a company that literally can only buyback its stock ... there are only like ~7.5M units traded ... down from 500M back in 1930!
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Gregmal on November 01, 2019, 05:26:07 AM
Part of me is absolutely in the Foreign Tuffett camp with this. Its one of the main reasons O&G is generally a pretty solid no-no zone for me. TPL I can get comfortable making a bit of an exception because it has other things going for it as well, and as we are seeing, a pretty dedicated long term shareholder.

I like the mandate to buyback stock. Except they haven't been doing this lately.

I like that it is a trust and not a corporation; just cash checks dont write them...except now that is changing and with the water biz they are at 20 something head count IIRC.

So because of the above and its place as an O&G play, Ill probably have an internal position limit cap. However between the sheer magnitude of their land holding, royalty revenue streams, and basically just a lack of shares outstanding...I can get comfortable to a degree. Haircut the hell out of their revenue and O&G growth and then just assume they are run as they have traditionally been. As Valuemaven mentions, that, plus the convergence of all the other good stuff and hopefully a return to share buybacks, allow time to be your friend here.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sharad on November 01, 2019, 08:01:05 AM
I still own this, and try to buy it whenever the price falls into the mid-$500s. That said, I remain disappointed with the terrible capital allocation. Or, dare I say it, their lack of capital allocation. The Trust is supposed to buy back sub-shares, and has failed to do so for two straight quarters. Yes, exploration should continue to rise, especially since their land overlays Anadarko Petroleum, and Occidental will need to justify the rich price they paid for the company.

The company continues to see higher easement revenue, which usually has stickiness, and should mean more oil production. Oil price is anybody's guess, so the future will always be murky, but seeing $50 EPS this year isn't out of the realm of possibility. Let's hope they resume buybacks instead of just having special committee meetings every two weeks.

Rant over.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on November 09, 2019, 12:26:59 PM
$250m in cash in the bank no debt ... could pay a $10 - $20 special dividend per share ... would prefer buybacks at this point however.  possible to value - exploding net income, coupled with a sharecount which has declined from 500m shares back in the 30s, to 7.7m shares today.  Only issue is the Trustees, who should be removed at all costs.  next catalyst is the c-corp conversion.  If and when that happens, this doubles
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on November 16, 2019, 12:09:46 PM
new website, new investor deck with a lot of new info ... would love to hear what others thing... i think they are prepping for a c-corp conversion and possibly 1-10 split to improve liquidity
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Philbert77 on November 16, 2019, 12:33:21 PM
new website, new investor deck with a lot of new info ... would love to hear what others thing... i think they are prepping for a c-corp conversion and possibly 1-10 split to improve liquidity
That would be lovely but I fear it is all just window dressing - like "see we aren't crooks and you should let us keep our lifetime appointments and forget all this nonsense of proper corporate governance".

The way they fought so hard against the appointment of a new shareholder proposed trustee and wasted so much shareholder money fighting the very thing the shareholders wanted makes me very cynical.

But perhaps they have seen the writing on the wall. I really hope you are right...
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: irakraus on December 04, 2019, 05:03:38 AM
TA-DAH?

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191204005475/en/

"The committee unanimously recognized compelling reasons to move to a corporate structure"

Update: 8-k is out too - https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/97517/000121390019025275/f8k120419_texas.htm

If the company released it, and the trustees were against it at the beginning, so I guess we are heading somewhere good
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on December 04, 2019, 06:03:43 PM
Yes.  Huge news.  I like where this is going directionally
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: zurgenfeldt on December 19, 2019, 06:20:37 PM
I bought 10K of this stock a couple months ago. I only wish it would dip down again so I could snap up another 100K.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on December 21, 2019, 05:49:49 AM
C-Corp conversion is a really big deal ... plus higher oil prices help.  Plus the trust now has close to ~$400M in cash on the b/s and zero debt (~$55 per share in cash) ... so I think some people are expecting a nice payout or dutch offer at somepoint.  I'd prefer that the trust just retire units like it has done so for the past 80+ years.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Haasje on December 21, 2019, 06:00:13 AM
I think they want to accelerate the water business right? Takes some cash.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Scunny Bunny on December 22, 2019, 04:15:15 AM
Accelerate water rights biz? Just buy PICO
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Gregmal on December 22, 2019, 06:31:08 AM
Ive said it before and Ill say it again, but Im surprised at how many people are in favor of the changes being made/suggested. Theres a saying if it aint broke dont fix it...Not only was this not broken, but it was glorious example of something so unique and largely uncorrupted. Was there much of anything that did better than TPL? With less operational risk? Yes the trustees were scumbags so that has to change. But transforming this from what it was, into an operating company who is making acquisitions, taking on risks, and burning resources on G&A? IDK, seems like an unnecessary risk to me. Additionally, water rights arent the easiest of businesses either...just go look at PICO and its history.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: ValueMaven on December 22, 2019, 07:27:11 AM
What acquisitions have they made?  Moving to a C-Corp will allow shareholders to VOTE current management OUT, and get in new trustees who are more aligned with TPL's original mission (self liquidation).  Talk about idiots luck ... 90 years+ on reducing split-adjusted sharecount from something like 500,000,000 shares o/s to 7.7million - while net income basically exploded.  I'm all for keeping the original TPL - but you need modern governance.  Will be an interesting next few quarters. 
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Castanza on February 05, 2020, 10:47:39 AM
Q4 results looked pretty solid.

A little throwback entertainment to May
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wu26HDA9GY

Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Castanza on February 24, 2020, 12:56:40 PM
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3544733-texas-pacific-land-trust-declares-10_00-dividend

Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Castanza on March 09, 2020, 09:22:38 AM
Anyone watching this at these levels?
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Gregmal on March 09, 2020, 09:36:26 AM
Anyone watching this at these levels?

Yup
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Castanza on March 09, 2020, 10:16:05 AM
Anyone watching this at these levels?

Yup

Added a few shares at 500. Could bite me in the ass, but I still like the long game.
Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sombunall on March 14, 2020, 12:46:41 PM
Me too.

Title: Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
Post by: Sombunall on March 14, 2020, 12:48:46 PM
Just five shale drillers—Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Crownquest—can drill new wells at a profit at $31 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. [The first 3 are TPL producers]

The situation is more positive for drilled but uncompleted wells, according to Rystad. The consultancy said yesterday that as much as 80 percent of DUCs in the U.S. shale patch have a breakeven price of less than $25 per barrel of WTI. [TPL has nearly 500 DUCs]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Only-5-Shale-Drillers-Are-Still-Profitable-At-31-Oil.html