Author Topic: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust  (Read 39514 times)

Tim Eriksen

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #20 on: February 02, 2017, 09:05:09 PM »
Does anyone think Horizon's trading activity is a bit strange?
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97517/000151941816000030/sched13da.htm

They continued to buy and sell every day, and they buy at a slightly higher price than they sell.  :o

Why is HK not subject to the short-swing profit rule?  They own more than 10% therefore every sale should be able to be matched up to the lowest buy price in the last six months and the profit would go back to the company. 


Hielko

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #21 on: February 03, 2017, 01:32:45 AM »
Just guessing here, but maybe because TPL is a trust, not a company?

benhacker

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #22 on: February 04, 2017, 01:22:21 PM »
I think they are reporting separate accounts so the selling / buying isn't for one fund... it's individuals, which is why buy / sells are at ask / bid respectively.

Above is my guess, but it answers both questions...
Ben Hacker
Beaverton, Oregon - USA

ValueMaven

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2017, 11:58:38 AM »
Makes you wonder...very well written article...I think there are analogies to TPL here...

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/frank-and-stevens-excellent-corporate-raiding-adventure/521436/

This is a cult stock, which is impossible analyze; which is significantly overvalued...this is literally dirt...DIRT...there is no 'business' here...

Sincerely,
ValueMaven

gg

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2017, 03:53:09 PM »
Makes you wonder...very well written article...I think there are analogies to TPL here...

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/frank-and-stevens-excellent-corporate-raiding-adventure/521436/

This is a cult stock, which is impossible analyze; which is significantly overvalued...this is literally dirt...DIRT...there is no 'business' here...

Sincerely,
ValueMaven

I understand the similarities in that both companies clearly are operating on extraordinarily long time horizons (as far as shareholder returns and patience are concerned), but based on that article, I think much less patience is required for TPL investors. TPL's revenues are skyrocketing from all the recent drilling on their lands. So while that multi generational patience might still be needed for Tejon investors before they see value accrue through the income statement, with TPL, that's very much happening right now. Revenues were up this past quarter by around 140% iirc...

Sharad

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #25 on: May 10, 2018, 07:05:38 AM »
Is anyone currently invested in this trust? Does anyone have any thoughts now that they are starting water operations?
"If we are not able to ask skeptical questions, to interrogate those who tell us that something is true, to be skeptical of those in authority, then we are up for grabs for the next charlatan - political or religious - who comes ambling along."
- Carl Sagan

ScottHall

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #26 on: May 10, 2018, 07:15:21 AM »
Is anyone currently invested in this trust? Does anyone have any thoughts now that they are starting water operations?

I am. I invested late last year after it finally clicking there's more to this business than most land traps.

Sharad

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #27 on: May 10, 2018, 08:34:07 AM »
Is anyone currently invested in this trust? Does anyone have any thoughts now that they are starting water operations?

I am. I invested late last year after it finally clicking there's more to this business than most land traps.

I did a quick back of the envelope calculation, and think they could perhaps hit $250m-300m in annual earnings in the next two to three years based on their water investments, at the expense of their lean business model (they have already added 2 dozen new employees, and I expect this to continue to rise as they add water capacity). In a couple of years time, I could see buybacks ramping up quite heavily, and the trust might split the subshares to create more volume to vacuum up shares.

This is all contingent on improved activity in West Texas, and further infrastructure projects in the region, supporting increased production.
"If we are not able to ask skeptical questions, to interrogate those who tell us that something is true, to be skeptical of those in authority, then we are up for grabs for the next charlatan - political or religious - who comes ambling along."
- Carl Sagan

ScottHall

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #28 on: June 27, 2018, 01:15:40 AM »
Is anyone currently invested in this trust? Does anyone have any thoughts now that they are starting water operations?

I am. I invested late last year after it finally clicking there's more to this business than most land traps.

I did a quick back of the envelope calculation, and think they could perhaps hit $250m-300m in annual earnings in the next two to three years based on their water investments, at the expense of their lean business model (they have already added 2 dozen new employees, and I expect this to continue to rise as they add water capacity). In a couple of years time, I could see buybacks ramping up quite heavily, and the trust might split the subshares to create more volume to vacuum up shares.

This is all contingent on improved activity in West Texas, and further infrastructure projects in the region, supporting increased production.

The margins of the water business so far are quite astounding. I wonder what normalized margins will be, at scale? I added a little a few days back.

Hielko

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #29 on: June 27, 2018, 02:03:37 AM »
I have to admit that I always liked the story of TPL... but I never see how it's cheap. Even at 250M-300M annual earnings in a few years time we are still talking about a P/E between 18 and 22. Maybe if that would be earnings into perpetuity that would be okay for a land company, but I don't know about that... you have to figure that there isn't a unlimited amount of oil and gas. Is it reasonable to expect they will still making this kind of money in 10 or 20 years time?
« Last Edit: June 27, 2018, 02:09:38 AM by Hielko »