Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 885179 times)

SHDL

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2680 on: January 18, 2019, 07:39:44 AM »
It comes after a pretty big hiring spree, so not too surprising IMO.  I'm sure the bulls will have no problem brushing it off as a sign of efficiency improvements...


Spekulatius

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2681 on: January 18, 2019, 08:28:31 AM »
It comes after a pretty big hiring spree, so not too surprising IMO.  I'm sure the bulls will have no problem brushing it off as a sign of efficiency improvements...

If a company is growing in leaps and bounds (20%+) there isnít a need for large scale layoffs, because it would grow into an oversized workforce very quickly.

The layoff is a big hint that growth wonít be forthcoming in the near term.
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SHDL

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2682 on: January 18, 2019, 09:05:54 AM »
If a company is growing in leaps and bounds (20%+) there isnít a need for large scale layoffs, because it would grow into an oversized workforce very quickly.

The layoff is a big hint that growth wonít be forthcoming in the near term.

Yes, that's a possibility for sure.  It'll be interesting to know exactly which group of workers were let go.  I don't think this is something to worry about if they are just laying off people who were hired temporarily to fill in gaps in the manufacturing process that existed only because certain automations weren't working as well as expected.  But it may be a different story otherwise. 
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 12:48:57 PM by SHDL »

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2683 on: January 19, 2019, 01:23:16 AM »
The new round of layoffs is just another sign that Tesla is structurally unprofitable. It was only last June, when they laid of 9% of the workforce, that Elon stated "We are making this decision now so that we never have to do this again." Some people with inside info indicated that in December, 5% of the workforce was also laid off linked to performence reviews (no 8k required).

The fact that Tesla is structurally unprofitable is ofcourse linked to this part of Elon's letter:
Quote
In Q3 last year, we were able to make a 4% profit. While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla. However, that was in part the result of preferentially selling higher priced Model 3 variants in North America. In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3. This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.

Basically, he states that Q3 was as good as it gets. The letter does not tackle two important items: model 3 production and demand. If my memory serves well, Elon indicated mid 2017 that the market would have absolutely no concern that they would be building 10.000 model 3's per week at the end of 2018. During the Q2 2018 call, he indicated that minimal cap-ex was required to build 7.000 model 3's per week. At the end of 2018, Tesla is still building less than 5.000 Model 3's per week. The obvious reason is ofcourse: lack of demand. I saw this quote from Deutsche Bank on Twitter:
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"In our conversation with the company, it acknowledged its remaining pipeline of Model 3 orders is now mostly from customer overseas, or from US customers waiting for a leasing option or cheaper variants of the vehicle."
 

And indeed, when ordering a model 3 in the US, you will get your car in 2 weeks. So why would Tesla try to increase production rates for a car with no more demand than 2k / 3k week?

Tesla is in a classic catch 22 situation: it needs to sell more cars to be able to lower the price of its cars, while at the same time it needs to lower the prices of its cars to be able to sell more cars.


 


Spekulatius

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2684 on: January 19, 2019, 05:11:23 AM »
If a company is growing in leaps and bounds (20%+) there isn’t a need for large scale layoffs, because it would grow into an oversized workforce very quickly.

The layoff is a big hint that growth won’t be forthcoming in the near term.

Yes, that's a possibility for sure.  It'll be interesting to know exactly which group of workers were let go.  I don't think this is something to worry about if they are just laying off people who were hired temporarily to fill in gaps in the manufacturing process that existed only because certain automations weren't working as well as expected.  But it may be a different story otherwise.

Those positions would be temps and contractors which have been laid off too, in addition to the workforce layoffs announced above. I do think the only explanation is that growth isn’t forthcoming and they are in the rationalization stage where they need to wring costs out of the system. I think Dhando got it right that they harvested their backlog with the most profitable market segment and now need to go downmarket.

What I can’t for the life of me figure out is why they haven’t raised more capital.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 07:53:22 PM by Spekulatius »
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cherzeca

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2685 on: January 28, 2019, 06:49:15 PM »
looks to me like the saudis used inside information in violation of the US securities laws. hedging entire 4.9% common position the night before layoff announced and stock tanked.  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabias-pif-slashes-exposure-174815266.html
« Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 07:10:06 PM by cherzeca »

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2686 on: January 29, 2019, 03:27:26 AM »
looks to me like the saudis used inside information in violation of the US securities laws. hedging entire 4.9% common position the night before layoff announced and stock tanked.  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabias-pif-slashes-exposure-174815266.html

They definitely were aware of MNPI if you look at the size of the hedge (their entire position) and the timing of the transaction (after the market close and the day before the information went public). On the same day Antonio Gracias, an independent director, also sold $5,4 million worth of options.

This is definitely going to be fun once the movie comes out :-).

I sold some out of the money call options (January 2020 420 strike) and am awaiting tomorrow's Q4 release and conference call to see how this evolves further.


walkie518

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2687 on: January 29, 2019, 06:36:24 AM »
interesting that Ellison bought so much stock right before the drop

I'm not sure if this is telling of Ellison or Musk's ability to manipulate someone like Ellison?

Leverage Capabilities

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2688 on: January 29, 2019, 08:38:07 AM »
interesting that Ellison bought so much stock right before the drop

I'm not sure if this is telling of Ellison or Musk's ability to manipulate someone like Ellison?

Given his involvement in Theranos (see Bad Blood) seems like Ellison might be a sucker for Silicon Valley "visionaries"

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2689 on: January 30, 2019, 04:47:31 PM »
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