Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 729792 times)

randomep

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2910 on: May 27, 2019, 07:51:21 AM »
I take back my partial defense of Cathy @ Ark: this valuation model is ludicrous.

https://github.com/TashaARK/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

She has essentially said that the company goes cash flow positive immediately and funds a growth in sales from the current 300k cars to 1.7 mill In just 5 years at an average sales price of nearly $50k and “gross margin” of 25%.  Oh... and an average mkt cap on equity raises of $70B with only $10B raised.

IMHO those numbers aren’t bad for a bull case, but there is a huge jump her team doesn’t seem to be accounting for between the current cash crunch and cash flow positive; if there is any chance at those growth numbers being remotely possible, a new plant with the same efficiency as Hyundai’s Ulsan Plant at a cost of ~$30B would be a necessity (unless they find a way for the machine to make the machine).

For the bull case: the robotaxi service (only factored into her Bull case  ::) ) adds ~$1T - yes trillion with a T - to her model and the company is going to have an enterprise value less than its Market cap at 2023.

This knucklehead continues to recieve capital and a CNBC soap box to spout this nonsense while value nerds like us continue to languish with the likes of GM and FCAU.

Did you also not notice the following:

If I assume they sell 0 cars for $0, it's a $46bn company because how they calculate EBITDA is they take EBIT (which would be $0) and add D&A to it. THat's not how it works folks!

Why is there no Balance sheet (does it balance?)
Why is there no cash flow statement?
Why is there no income statement?
Why do they assume only $19,000 (not $19 billion, 19 THOUSAND) in PP&E in 2023 (yes they did, I'm not kidding)?
Why did they hard code $31,093,764,148.19 in FCF? What is that based on?
Why did they not adjust for the $800mn in SBC that Tesla pays a year?
Why is it that if I have them raise $1 trillion at a $70 billion valuation, the cash shows up nowhere in their model, and the market cap after that is still $46 billion assuming 0 cars and 0 autonomous?

This model is more broken than King Bran.

I went to their website they show pics of each member of their staff. My god, I think 80% of them look 30, maybe some are even in their 20s.  Before, I get labelled an age discriminator........ These kids have no memory of 2000, their glossy ads are all about the future, disruption, innovation....... with a staff that young they can definitely believe in their own cool-aid......

things like this are great, it means there are suckers every generation, which means a constant stream of wealth transfer...... I still have hope to be 20 millionaire!




peterHK

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2911 on: May 27, 2019, 01:32:54 PM »
I take back my partial defense of Cathy @ Ark: this valuation model is ludicrous.

https://github.com/TashaARK/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

She has essentially said that the company goes cash flow positive immediately and funds a growth in sales from the current 300k cars to 1.7 mill In just 5 years at an average sales price of nearly $50k and “gross margin” of 25%.  Oh... and an average mkt cap on equity raises of $70B with only $10B raised.

IMHO those numbers aren’t bad for a bull case, but there is a huge jump her team doesn’t seem to be accounting for between the current cash crunch and cash flow positive; if there is any chance at those growth numbers being remotely possible, a new plant with the same efficiency as Hyundai’s Ulsan Plant at a cost of ~$30B would be a necessity (unless they find a way for the machine to make the machine).

For the bull case: the robotaxi service (only factored into her Bull case  ::) ) adds ~$1T - yes trillion with a T - to her model and the company is going to have an enterprise value less than its Market cap at 2023.

This knucklehead continues to recieve capital and a CNBC soap box to spout this nonsense while value nerds like us continue to languish with the likes of GM and FCAU.

Did you also not notice the following:

If I assume they sell 0 cars for $0, it's a $46bn company because how they calculate EBITDA is they take EBIT (which would be $0) and add D&A to it. THat's not how it works folks!

Why is there no Balance sheet (does it balance?)
Why is there no cash flow statement?
Why is there no income statement?
Why do they assume only $19,000 (not $19 billion, 19 THOUSAND) in PP&E in 2023 (yes they did, I'm not kidding)?
Why did they hard code $31,093,764,148.19 in FCF? What is that based on?
Why did they not adjust for the $800mn in SBC that Tesla pays a year?
Why is it that if I have them raise $1 trillion at a $70 billion valuation, the cash shows up nowhere in their model, and the market cap after that is still $46 billion assuming 0 cars and 0 autonomous?

This model is more broken than King Bran.

I went to their website they show pics of each member of their staff. My god, I think 80% of them look 30, maybe some are even in their 20s.  Before, I get labelled an age discriminator........ These kids have no memory of 2000, their glossy ads are all about the future, disruption, innovation....... with a staff that young they can definitely believe in their own cool-aid......

things like this are great, it means there are suckers every generation, which means a constant stream of wealth transfer...... I still have hope to be 20 millionaire!

I'm 27.

Haasje

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2912 on: May 27, 2019, 11:58:54 PM »

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2913 on: May 28, 2019, 03:32:14 AM »
New podcast with Montana Skeptic: https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-jz7pw-b28a6c#.XOvX4qDyXZg.twitter

Well worth the listen.

Orchard

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2914 on: May 28, 2019, 05:39:00 AM »
I'm 27.

So you got some time to bone up on your EBITDA calcs. Not that it's important...

meiroy

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2915 on: May 28, 2019, 06:42:56 PM »

I think there's very little chance Tesla is going to 0 or anything near it. Can't see it happening, with their technical knowledge and capabilities they will be supported sooner or later. I'm not saying it's cheap here or anything.

Spekulatius

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2916 on: May 28, 2019, 08:02:58 PM »

I think there's very little chance Tesla is going to 0 or anything near it. Can't see it happening, with their technical knowledge and capabilities they will be supported sooner or later. I'm not saying it's cheap here or anything.

The technical knowledge will walk out the door before they go bankrupt. It’s pretty easy for engineers in the Bay Area to find another job.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

meiroy

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2917 on: May 28, 2019, 11:04:32 PM »

I think there's very little chance Tesla is going to 0 or anything near it. Can't see it happening, with their technical knowledge and capabilities they will be supported sooner or later. I'm not saying it's cheap here or anything.

The technical knowledge will walk out the door before they go bankrupt. It’s pretty easy for engineers in the Bay Area to find another job.

Could be. They also have IP as a company, team structure and Elon Musk etc.  In this environment where AI and technology will get government support, I just don't see it happening.



petec

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2918 on: May 29, 2019, 05:11:44 AM »
Given the amount of ESG/save the world money out there looking for a home, I would think a highly dilutive recap is more likely than a zero.

petec

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2919 on: May 29, 2019, 07:56:51 AM »
Tesla bulls do have beautiful websites
https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/usa/non-professional-investor/

In fairness, take a look at the performance of Scottish Mortgage (their main publicly listed growth fund).