Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 777810 times)

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3270 on: January 21, 2020, 04:59:39 AM »
One little side story I am enjoying here is seeing Cathie Wood continue to look like the genius; in the face of all the bitter asshats whom mock her.

With the emphasis on look. I guess a lot of Valeant investors also looked like geniuses until August 2015  :-*

edit: I find it interesting that their super de luxe TSLA valuation modelTM https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Modelwas not updated anymore since last May. 

I'm still looking for the first long investor who has done as much research as the people on the short side of the trade. One recent example: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

Which are all points and reasoning that continue to miss the forest for the trees and lead the geniuses to slaughter. First, how much research one does is irrelevant if it is 1) flawed, and/or 2) you dont make money on your investment. Its one of the most amusing things I continually notice with "the smart money".... How was Ackman's 300+ page HLF slide? Many of these guys take more pride in their research than their returns, which often beg the question, "why has the index kicked your ass for nearly a decade now?"

But, outside of this, its really quite simple. Who's shoes would one rather be in? Cathy Wood identified, and has stuck with, what has to do date, been a home run investment. Her funds have crushed it, her business is on fire, and at the end of the day, if/when the story changes, she will have her decisions to make.  OR the disgruntled and bitter short seller who has mountains of "research", massive losses and carry costs, woefully underperforms, and spends a good chunk of his time whining and making excuses about how everyone else doesnt get it; grasping at straws and clinging to comparisons like Enron or VRX to justify continuing his crusade? (Which by the way, despite VRX's fate, who was really the winner there? The guys like Chanos who shorted it at $60 and spent years getting hit with HTB fees and claiming "any day now" as the losses multiplied, and even after the big collapse really didn't have an IRR that justified the time and headache the investment ultimately presented?


I have been and continue to be as bearish about Tesla as the next guy, but at the same time continue to be amazed by all the geniuses who just cant remove their emotion from the investment and come to terms with the fact that they have no clue what they are doing here. And I also think its shameful that these same clowns disparage someone who deep down, they probably envy, for nothing else, but making a good investment and running a successful business.

But outside of that...

I don't agree. Bill Ackman was also one of the most vocal investors supporting Valeant. What do you think the investment community would have thought of him if he would have sold his investment at the 250ish top? His returns would have been great, but everyone would have known his research process was flawed and he just had a lucky timing with his sale.

Similarly, if Tesla turns out to be a 0 in the long term, but ARK manages to sell out at a profit, it would also be clear that they were just lucky.

Maybe you would like to invest your money with asset managers that are lucky, but I prefer to invest with asset managers whose investment process I can trust.


Gregmal

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3271 on: January 21, 2020, 05:33:49 AM »
One little side story I am enjoying here is seeing Cathie Wood continue to look like the genius; in the face of all the bitter asshats whom mock her.

With the emphasis on look. I guess a lot of Valeant investors also looked like geniuses until August 2015  :-*

edit: I find it interesting that their super de luxe TSLA valuation modelTM https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Modelwas not updated anymore since last May. 

I'm still looking for the first long investor who has done as much research as the people on the short side of the trade. One recent example: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

Which are all points and reasoning that continue to miss the forest for the trees and lead the geniuses to slaughter. First, how much research one does is irrelevant if it is 1) flawed, and/or 2) you dont make money on your investment. Its one of the most amusing things I continually notice with "the smart money".... How was Ackman's 300+ page HLF slide? Many of these guys take more pride in their research than their returns, which often beg the question, "why has the index kicked your ass for nearly a decade now?"

But, outside of this, its really quite simple. Who's shoes would one rather be in? Cathy Wood identified, and has stuck with, what has to do date, been a home run investment. Her funds have crushed it, her business is on fire, and at the end of the day, if/when the story changes, she will have her decisions to make.  OR the disgruntled and bitter short seller who has mountains of "research", massive losses and carry costs, woefully underperforms, and spends a good chunk of his time whining and making excuses about how everyone else doesnt get it; grasping at straws and clinging to comparisons like Enron or VRX to justify continuing his crusade? (Which by the way, despite VRX's fate, who was really the winner there? The guys like Chanos who shorted it at $60 and spent years getting hit with HTB fees and claiming "any day now" as the losses multiplied, and even after the big collapse really didn't have an IRR that justified the time and headache the investment ultimately presented?


I have been and continue to be as bearish about Tesla as the next guy, but at the same time continue to be amazed by all the geniuses who just cant remove their emotion from the investment and come to terms with the fact that they have no clue what they are doing here. And I also think its shameful that these same clowns disparage someone who deep down, they probably envy, for nothing else, but making a good investment and running a successful business.

But outside of that...

I don't agree. Bill Ackman was also one of the most vocal investors supporting Valeant. What do you think the investment community would have thought of him if he would have sold his investment at the 250ish top? His returns would have been great, but everyone would have known his research process was flawed and he just had a lucky timing with his sale.

Similarly, if Tesla turns out to be a 0 in the long term, but ARK manages to sell out at a profit, it would also be clear that they were just lucky.

Maybe you would like to invest your money with asset managers that are lucky, but I prefer to invest with asset managers whose investment process I can trust.

Buying and selling at the right time is probably the single most important element of the investing equation.

RE: Ackman, nothing of his was flawed whether he sold at 250 or at 0; the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved. Whats the difference between Andrew Left's return on VRX and Jim Chanos? About 3-4 years. So, timing.

Its a pretty flawed argument, not to mention immensely arrogant to basically just assume that because your "research" leads you to a different conclusion than somebody else(forget the fact that they are sitting on a 10-20 bagger compared to either negative returns or no position for you), that they are lucky and you are right.

I value results so I could care less whether one is lucky or whether I am capable of understanding their process. I manage my own money and that of others so I do not have to chose an asset manager to begin with. But for those looking for one, track record is important and one glaring warning sign is somebody who has been hooting and hollering and crying wolf now for half a decade, unable to see that they are wrong. Worse IMO than someone who correctly called a home run and then failed to monetize it.

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3272 on: January 21, 2020, 05:54:41 AM »
Liberty et all, I thought you were following Tesla more closely than appears from your posts. Just google "Tesla" & "price cut" and you will find dozens of articles on how prices of Model S, X and 3 decreased considerably over the last couple of years: https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/1/18246001/tesla-model-s-and-model-x-price-cuts

I was talking about replacement battery prices.

And why would you phrase things like that anyway? Seems needlessly confrontational.

A lot of the price cuts were going from the premium models, which they made first, to less premium models (dual motors vs single, smaller batteries, different finishes and interiors, different self-driving packages, etc).
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A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3273 on: January 21, 2020, 06:01:41 AM »
One little side story I am enjoying here is seeing Cathie Wood continue to look like the genius; in the face of all the bitter asshats whom mock her.

With the emphasis on look. I guess a lot of Valeant investors also looked like geniuses until August 2015  :-*

edit: I find it interesting that their super de luxe TSLA valuation modelTM https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Modelwas not updated anymore since last May. 

I'm still looking for the first long investor who has done as much research as the people on the short side of the trade. One recent example: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

Which are all points and reasoning that continue to miss the forest for the trees and lead the geniuses to slaughter. First, how much research one does is irrelevant if it is 1) flawed, and/or 2) you dont make money on your investment. Its one of the most amusing things I continually notice with "the smart money".... How was Ackman's 300+ page HLF slide? Many of these guys take more pride in their research than their returns, which often beg the question, "why has the index kicked your ass for nearly a decade now?"

But, outside of this, its really quite simple. Who's shoes would one rather be in? Cathy Wood identified, and has stuck with, what has to do date, been a home run investment. Her funds have crushed it, her business is on fire, and at the end of the day, if/when the story changes, she will have her decisions to make.  OR the disgruntled and bitter short seller who has mountains of "research", massive losses and carry costs, woefully underperforms, and spends a good chunk of his time whining and making excuses about how everyone else doesnt get it; grasping at straws and clinging to comparisons like Enron or VRX to justify continuing his crusade? (Which by the way, despite VRX's fate, who was really the winner there? The guys like Chanos who shorted it at $60 and spent years getting hit with HTB fees and claiming "any day now" as the losses multiplied, and even after the big collapse really didn't have an IRR that justified the time and headache the investment ultimately presented?


I have been and continue to be as bearish about Tesla as the next guy, but at the same time continue to be amazed by all the geniuses who just cant remove their emotion from the investment and come to terms with the fact that they have no clue what they are doing here. And I also think its shameful that these same clowns disparage someone who deep down, they probably envy, for nothing else, but making a good investment and running a successful business.

But outside of that...

I don't agree. Bill Ackman was also one of the most vocal investors supporting Valeant. What do you think the investment community would have thought of him if he would have sold his investment at the 250ish top? His returns would have been great, but everyone would have known his research process was flawed and he just had a lucky timing with his sale.

Similarly, if Tesla turns out to be a 0 in the long term, but ARK manages to sell out at a profit, it would also be clear that they were just lucky.

Maybe you would like to invest your money with asset managers that are lucky, but I prefer to invest with asset managers whose investment process I can trust.

Buying and selling at the right time is probably the single most important element of the investing equation.

RE: Ackman, nothing of his was flawed whether he sold at 250 or at 0; the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved. Whats the difference between Andrew Left's return on VRX and Jim Chanos? About 3-4 years. So, timing.

Its a pretty flawed argument, not to mention immensely arrogant to basically just assume that because your "research" leads you to a different conclusion than somebody else(forget the fact that they are sitting on a 10-20 bagger compared to either negative returns or no position for you), that they are lucky and you are right.

I value results so I could care less whether one is lucky or whether I am capable of understanding their process. I manage my own money and that of others so I do not have to chose an asset manager to begin with. But for those looking for one, track record is important and one glaring warning sign is somebody who has been hooting and hollering and crying wolf now for half a decade, unable to see that they are wrong. Worse IMO than someone who correctly called a home run and then failed to monetize it.

"the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved" - that's the thing when you get involved in story stocks. In that sense TSLA is quite a similar stock as VRX. Fundamentals are actually quite bad, but the share price will remain elevated as long as enough people believe in the story / narrative. Watch out below once the fundamentals start to get questioned. Ackman obviously did not do enough DD on VRX btw, as he wasn't even aware of the VRX Philidor relationship, which was something the bears found out before him.

I don't know when ARK became involved in TSLA and what kind of multibagger they are currently sitting on, I only know that their research leading to a 4k price target is flawed, so yes, I'm quite sure they are just lucky atm.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3274 on: January 21, 2020, 06:43:14 AM »
Liberty et all, I thought you were following Tesla more closely than appears from your posts. Just google "Tesla" & "price cut" and you will find dozens of articles on how prices of Model S, X and 3 decreased considerably over the last couple of years: https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/1/18246001/tesla-model-s-and-model-x-price-cuts

I was talking about replacement battery prices.

And why would you phrase things like that anyway? Seems needlessly confrontational.

A lot of the price cuts were going from the premium models, which they made first, to less premium models (dual motors vs single, smaller batteries, different finishes and interiors, different self-driving packages, etc).

The fully loaded S is now about $10,000 less than it was in 2013.  Now it comes with 100 kWh battery instead of of 85 kWH, dual motor AWD,  autopilot, parking sensors, 2.4 sec 0-60 instead of 4.2 sec.

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3275 on: January 21, 2020, 07:16:04 AM »
Liberty et all, I thought you were following Tesla more closely than appears from your posts. Just google "Tesla" & "price cut" and you will find dozens of articles on how prices of Model S, X and 3 decreased considerably over the last couple of years: https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/1/18246001/tesla-model-s-and-model-x-price-cuts

I was talking about replacement battery prices.

And why would you phrase things like that anyway? Seems needlessly confrontational.

A lot of the price cuts were going from the premium models, which they made first, to less premium models (dual motors vs single, smaller batteries, different finishes and interiors, different self-driving packages, etc).

The fully loaded S is now about $10,000 less than it was in 2013.  Now it comes with 100 kWh battery instead of of 85 kWH, dual motor AWD,  autopilot, parking sensors, 2.4 sec 0-60 instead of 4.2 sec.

Yeah, it's a mix of changes to the model SKUs and their availability (ie. at first only the top SKUs were made and sold, and it'll likely be the same for the Y at first), and actually lower prices, or often same price for something better (kind of like how you pay about the same for a smartphone now as 5 years ago, but it's much faster, better features, more storage, etc).
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A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3276 on: January 22, 2020, 12:48:02 AM »
Yeah, it's a mix of changes to the model SKUs and their availability (ie. at first only the top SKUs were made and sold, and it'll likely be the same for the Y at first), and actually lower prices, or often same price for something better (kind of like how you pay about the same for a smartphone now as 5 years ago, but it's much faster, better features, more storage, etc).

I invite you to find one other premium auto manufacturer who actually lowered prices when introducing a new version of the same model over the last 20 years. Spoiler alert: you will find none.

Like Gregmal would say I am probably missing the forest through the trees and the simple fact that they are lowering prices must be another demonstration how Tesla is "vastly superior" to other auto manufacturers.

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3277 on: January 22, 2020, 01:03:15 AM »

Buying and selling at the right time is probably the single most important element of the investing equation.

RE: Ackman, nothing of his was flawed whether he sold at 250 or at 0; the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved. Whats the difference between Andrew Left's return on VRX and Jim Chanos? About 3-4 years. So, timing.

Its a pretty flawed argument, not to mention immensely arrogant to basically just assume that because your "research" leads you to a different conclusion than somebody else(forget the fact that they are sitting on a 10-20 bagger compared to either negative returns or no position for you), that they are lucky and you are right.

I value results so I could care less whether one is lucky or whether I am capable of understanding their process. I manage my own money and that of others so I do not have to chose an asset manager to begin with. But for those looking for one, track record is important and one glaring warning sign is somebody who has been hooting and hollering and crying wolf now for half a decade, unable to see that they are wrong. Worse IMO than someone who correctly called a home run and then failed to monetize it.

"the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved" - that's the thing when you get involved in story stocks. In that sense TSLA is quite a similar stock as VRX. Fundamentals are actually quite bad, but the share price will remain elevated as long as enough people believe in the story / narrative. Watch out below once the fundamentals start to get questioned. Ackman obviously did not do enough DD on VRX btw, as he wasn't even aware of the VRX Philidor relationship, which was something the bears found out before him.

I don't know when ARK became involved in TSLA and what kind of multibagger they are currently sitting on, I only know that their research leading to a 4k price target is flawed, so yes, I'm quite sure they are just lucky atm.

About the narrative on Tesla: Tesla put out this blog post stating that "there is no unintended acceleration in Tesla vehicles" and how the petition was put forward by a short seller: https://www.tesla.com/nl_BE/blog/no-unintended-acceleration-tesla-vehicles?redirect=no

I am too lazy to find more details, but over time I have seen enough video's on Twitter that show that at least something is rotten in the state of Denmark. e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cz4S5Ydr93s

As recent as yesterday, a Tesla crashed into a showroom in Germany, killing one of the visitors, in an accident that had at least some kind of a smell of sudden unintended acceleration: https://www.kn-online.de/Lokales/Rendsburg/Unfall-in-Nortorf-Auto-faehrt-in-Baumarkt-Frau-stirbt

In the past, Tesla was able to pay off most of these victims while letting them sign NDA's, but I believe it is only a matter of time before a regulator will start to take real action.

edit: ow snap, according to Trump, Musk is a genius that needs protection https://www.teletrader.com/trump-calls-elon-musk-genius/news/details/51040967

« Last Edit: January 22, 2020, 03:39:44 AM by A Dhandho Investor »

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3278 on: January 22, 2020, 06:04:04 AM »
I invite you to find one other premium auto manufacturer who actually lowered prices when introducing a new version of the same model over the last 20 years. Spoiler alert: you will find none.

Like Gregmal would say I am probably missing the forest through the trees and the simple fact that they are lowering prices must be another demonstration how Tesla is "vastly superior" to other auto manufacturers.

You're comparing two different technologies that are at different levels of maturity.

It's quite common for technologies that are in steeper parts of their development curves to either get cheaper or to give you more for the same price over time. Later on, as they get more mature, that tends to flatten out or reverse.

So yeah, you're missing the forest.
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fareastwarriors

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3279 on: January 22, 2020, 08:59:59 AM »
Hmm Should I trim here.... decisions...