Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 880669 times)

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3580 on: February 26, 2020, 03:28:44 PM »
For once I agree with you Dalal, let's look at some factual evidence instead of anecdotes: https://venturebeat.com/2020/02/26/california-dmv-releases-latest-batch-of-autonomous-vehicle-disengagement-reports/

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Waymo’s 153 cars and 268 drivers covered 1.45 million miles in California in 2019, eclipsing the company’s 1.2 million miles in 2018, 352,000 miles in 2017, and 635,868 miles in 2016.

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Tesla reported zero miles driven autonomously on public roads in California during all of 2019, as it has for the past three years.The company says that it conducts its testing via simulation, in laboratories, on test tracks, and on public roads in various locations around the world, and that it “shadow-tests” its cars’ autonomous capabilities by collecting anonymized data from over 400,000 customer-owned vehicles “during normal driving operations.”


Castanza

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3581 on: February 26, 2020, 03:35:06 PM »
Speaking of blind spots, the following report (released yesterday) may be relevant for the security transition discussion, even if anecdotal.
Summary: A California Apple employee relied too much on Tesla self-driving technology and had a fatal accident while being distracted by a gaming application.
https://www.ntsb.gov/news/events/Documents/2020-HWY18FH011-BMG-abstract.pdf

So a guy plays a game on his cellphone while driving and we have to come up with ways to blame the car manufacturer? We may never have self driving vehicles if people respond in this way to these events (anyone who is short will love it though). Autopilot advises you must keep your hands on the steering. So do non-autopilot car manufacturers. Same with if you have lane assist and cruise control on.

And no, autopilot does not mean the car drives itself without supervision. Just like you wouldn't want to walk into the cockpit of your commercial airline flight and see the pilots playing video games while the plane was on "autopilot". The term is not ambiguous.

Yes, anecdotes are the #1 best form of research in this thread. Look back on all the bear arguments in this thread for many more anecdotes over the years. No one really picked up on the story about the Taycan fire, but Tesla anecdotes = click/retweet crack so they get amplified.

Do you get this hard for your significant other? Or is Elon the only one that does it for you.....?

Honda civics 2015 models had a camera for the passenger side mirror which was used to check blind spots. They discontinued it because they found it caused too many distractions and caused drivers to not actually turn and look themselves. I find it ironic that you tout the magic of autonomous vehicles due to their ability or future ability to mitigate human error. Yet when that same function “encourages” a human error it’s insignificant.

I don’t think it’s out of the question to discuss the relationship and potential impact of autonomous systems might have on human decision making.

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3582 on: February 26, 2020, 03:37:59 PM »
For once I agree with you Dalal, let's look at some factual evidence instead of anecdotes: https://venturebeat.com/2020/02/26/california-dmv-releases-latest-batch-of-autonomous-vehicle-disengagement-reports/

Quote
Waymo’s 153 cars and 268 drivers covered 1.45 million miles in California in 2019, eclipsing the company’s 1.2 million miles in 2018, 352,000 miles in 2017, and 635,868 miles in 2016.

Quote
Tesla reported zero miles driven autonomously on public roads in California during all of 2019, as it has for the past three years.The company says that it conducts its testing via simulation, in laboratories, on test tracks, and on public roads in various locations around the world, and that it “shadow-tests” its cars’ autonomous capabilities by collecting anonymized data from over 400,000 customer-owned vehicles “during normal driving operations.”

Lol. Incapable of sifting signal from noise. A terrible way to practice investing, a suicidal way to practice short selling. Keep doing what you're doing.
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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3583 on: February 26, 2020, 03:41:17 PM »
Speaking of blind spots, the following report (released yesterday) may be relevant for the security transition discussion, even if anecdotal.
Summary: A California Apple employee relied too much on Tesla self-driving technology and had a fatal accident while being distracted by a gaming application.
https://www.ntsb.gov/news/events/Documents/2020-HWY18FH011-BMG-abstract.pdf

So a guy plays a game on his cellphone while driving and we have to come up with ways to blame the car manufacturer? We may never have self driving vehicles if people respond in this way to these events (anyone who is short will love it though). Autopilot advises you must keep your hands on the steering. So do non-autopilot car manufacturers. Same with if you have lane assist and cruise control on.

And no, autopilot does not mean the car drives itself without supervision. Just like you wouldn't want to walk into the cockpit of your commercial airline flight and see the pilots playing video games while the plane was on "autopilot". The term is not ambiguous.

Yes, anecdotes are the #1 best form of research in this thread. Look back on all the bear arguments in this thread for many more anecdotes over the years. No one really picked up on the story about the Taycan fire, but Tesla anecdotes = click/retweet crack so they get amplified.

Do you get this hard for your significant other? Or is Elon the only one that does it for you.....?

Honda civics 2015 models had a camera for the passenger side mirror which was used to check blind spots. They discontinued it because they found it caused too many distractions and caused drivers to not actually turn and look themselves. I find it ironic that you tout the magic of autonomous vehicles due to their ability or future ability to mitigate human error. Yet when that same function “encourages” a human error it’s insignificant.

I don’t think it’s out of the question to discuss the relationship and potential impact of autonomous systems might have on human decision making.

What is your track record of all the posts you've made on this name? Not impressive. Maybe you could devote the failed opportunity costs to actually acquiring a significant other.

Autopilot is not an autonomous vehicle just like a 747 with autopilot is not an autonomous airplane. It does not "encourage" the pilot to fall asleep. An argument can be made that cruise control "encourages" human error. So do cell phones, but we are not willing to give them up. Doesn't mean AAPL is to be held accountable if a teen is texting while driving. But I guess in your world, accountability doesn't matter.

Yes, the guy who launched a rocket company and successful EV company simultaneous is unimpressive.
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Castanza

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3584 on: February 26, 2020, 03:47:02 PM »
Speaking of blind spots, the following report (released yesterday) may be relevant for the security transition discussion, even if anecdotal.
Summary: A California Apple employee relied too much on Tesla self-driving technology and had a fatal accident while being distracted by a gaming application.
https://www.ntsb.gov/news/events/Documents/2020-HWY18FH011-BMG-abstract.pdf

So a guy plays a game on his cellphone while driving and we have to come up with ways to blame the car manufacturer? We may never have self driving vehicles if people respond in this way to these events (anyone who is short will love it though). Autopilot advises you must keep your hands on the steering. So do non-autopilot car manufacturers. Same with if you have lane assist and cruise control on.

And no, autopilot does not mean the car drives itself without supervision. Just like you wouldn't want to walk into the cockpit of your commercial airline flight and see the pilots playing video games while the plane was on "autopilot". The term is not ambiguous.

Yes, anecdotes are the #1 best form of research in this thread. Look back on all the bear arguments in this thread for many more anecdotes over the years. No one really picked up on the story about the Taycan fire, but Tesla anecdotes = click/retweet crack so they get amplified.

Do you get this hard for your significant other? Or is Elon the only one that does it for you.....?

Honda civics 2015 models had a camera for the passenger side mirror which was used to check blind spots. They discontinued it because they found it caused too many distractions and caused drivers to not actually turn and look themselves. I find it ironic that you tout the magic of autonomous vehicles due to their ability or future ability to mitigate human error. Yet when that same function “encourages” a human error it’s insignificant.

I don’t think it’s out of the question to discuss the relationship and potential impact of autonomous systems might have on human decision making.

What is your track record of all the posts you've made on this name? Not impressive. Maybe you could devote the failed opportunity costs to actually acquiring a significant other.

Autopilot is not an autonomous vehicle just like a 747 with autopilot is not an autonomous airplane. It does not "encourage" the pilot to fall asleep. An argument can be made that cruise control "encourages" human error. So do cell phones, but we are not willing to give them up. Doesn't mean AAPL is to be held accountable if a teen is texting while driving. But I guess in your world, accountability doesn't matter.

Yes, the guy who launched a rocket company and successful EV company simultaneous is unimpressive.

The difference is I don’t claim to be a stock savant. And I’m not running down individuals who have taken time to approach Tesla’s thesis from different angles. Apparently you have it all figured out.... ::)

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3585 on: February 26, 2020, 03:54:20 PM »
The difference is I don’t claim to be a stock savant. And I’m not running down individuals who have taken time to approach Tesla’s thesis from different angles. Apparently you have it all figured out.... ::)

Lol. Look back on my posts. I was ridiculed in mid 2019 here by the consensus when this thing was in the low 200s...never claimed to be a savant. All I said was it ain't easy being a contrarian. Then I left for about 5-6 mo while this thing rocketed.

Well, I was right, being a contrarian is not easy, but it sure did pay well.
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ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3586 on: February 28, 2020, 06:48:06 PM »
I drove 45 miles today, returning to my starting point having expended 12.2 kWh. 

That's a 313 mile range, based on a new 85 kWh battery.  The car is rated for 265 miles of range when new.

I recently read that regenerative braking captures only about 60% of the energy, so I tried to drive without using any braking at all where possible.  It made a big difference.

I had the climate control disabled, and the sunroof open.  It was close to 80 today.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 06:52:51 PM by ERICOPOLY »

rb

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3587 on: February 29, 2020, 05:15:24 AM »
As someone who has a Class A CDL and about 3k miles in road time (not really lot) stay the hell away from semis. Keeping a 8.5ft wide truck in an 9-12ft wide lane is difficult enough on a perfect day. Throw in some crosswinds, inclement weather and it's a whole different ball game. Especially in construction zones. I see so many morons driving right next to them on lane merges with barriers on either side. And remember if your riding their ass they can't see you. Rear blind spot is something like 30-50ft depending on trailer.

And if you are in the truckers rear blind spot then you are blind as well.  You can't see what happens in front of the truck and you won't know if he is about to slam on his breaks until after he does so, add in your reaction time and a crash is hard to avoid.

More reasons why we need self-driving trucks with 360-degree cameras, ultrasonics, radars, and V2V coms.

At the very least driver assist technology. Making turns with a 53 foot trailer and having to make adjustments (possibly stop and reverse) mid turn due to other vehicles, pedestrians, signs, etc seems way too difficult.
I think these trucks have a pretty nifty driver assist system.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7FIvfx5J10

And yea... don't try this at home.

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3588 on: February 29, 2020, 06:30:20 AM »
I drove 45 miles today, returning to my starting point having expended 12.2 kWh. 

That's a 313 mile range, based on a new 85 kWh battery.  The car is rated for 265 miles of range when new.

I recently read that regenerative braking captures only about 60% of the energy, so I tried to drive without using any braking at all where possible.  It made a big difference.

I had the climate control disabled, and the sunroof open.  It was close to 80 today.

It's strange how there are many Tesla owners on this website who have been enjoying the product ("best car I've ever owned") while at the same time, claims of "commoditization", impending "Tesla killers", and a lack of a moat abound (from others). Seems like an underlying disconnect between consumers & investors.
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rb

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3589 on: February 29, 2020, 06:45:54 AM »
A lot of people love themselves a mustang or an F150. Doesn't mean they should go and buy Ford stock.