Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 890850 times)

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3610 on: April 02, 2020, 03:22:05 PM »
Hey Dalal, you do know that crises like this one are bad for frauds like Tesla?

I find it a little concerning that they did not do the split Model 3 / model Y deliveries, no discussion on new net orders and no outlook for 2020, but who am I 🙈

As always, impeccable analysis. Investigative journalism at its finest.
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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3611 on: April 03, 2020, 12:53:30 PM »
TSLA: the great short opportunity of the last 3 years that has substantially outperformed its competitors and the S&P 500--even during a recession and global pandemic.

Now THAT'S Funny!



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Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3612 on: April 08, 2020, 10:53:50 AM »
Pretty slick video showing the Chinese plant:

https://youtu.be/hoGlLL0UmpQ
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

alpha

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3613 on: April 08, 2020, 11:24:40 AM »
Pretty slick video showing the Chinese plant:

https://youtu.be/hoGlLL0UmpQ

Pretty impressive how quickly that plant went from dirt to production.

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3614 on: April 08, 2020, 11:27:33 AM »
Quote
The best startups might be considered slightly less extreme kinds of cults. The biggest difference is that cults tend to be fanatically wrong about something important. People at a successful startup are fanatically right about something those outside it have missed. Youíre not going to learn those kinds of secrets from consultants, and you donít need to worry if your company doesnít make sense to conventional professionals. Better to be called a cultóor even a mafia.

óPeter Thiel
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mloub

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3615 on: April 08, 2020, 12:11:17 PM »
Super impressive. Their China expansion is an interesting move.

But I have to say, everytime I try to wrap my head around their statements, I walk away more confused than when I started.

For example, the Shanghai Factory, which depending on how you look at it, increased their production capacity anywhere from 30-50%. They started building it in March, 2019 and it was producing it's first vehicles by January, 2020 - so presumably the bulk of the capex was done by then.

But the company reported Capex for 2019 of $1.3B - significantly less than the capex of $2.1B in 2018, when they were not building a new factory - and less than their D&A for 2019 of $2.1B.

Stranger still, their long-lived assets by geographic area for 2019 were reported at $890m for International Assets (basically unchanged from $860m in 2018). (Page 125 of the 2019 Financial statements).

I'm clearly missing something very obvious, but my questions about this to Tesla IR were ignored. I'm not big enough to register on their radar screen, I guess. Anyone else have any ideas what is happening here? Some accounting wizardry rules that I am unaware of?

M.




« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 12:13:15 PM by mloub »

benhacker

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3616 on: April 08, 2020, 12:22:10 PM »
they don't own the factory in common sense, they own the output / profits of the factory after the Chinese authorities make charge their minimum taxes.  The factory is in a sense an option for TSLA.  I actually think it was a pretty savvy way to expand production and also provides a nice story, while not costing Tesla much upfront.

Have to say I was way wrong on stock performance here.  Really pretty nutty.  I still think it doesn't make sense, but the price is what it is after a lot of very bad news.

I still don't get how bulls on Musk can ignore so much damning evidence but they seem to have been very right to have done so!
Ben Hacker
Beaverton, Oregon - USA

mloub

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3617 on: April 08, 2020, 12:44:01 PM »
Well, there is this.... https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1187705064049270785

I mean, Tesla says they own the factory, they talk about it as though they own it, and if they don't own it who does? Who is carrying it on their balance sheet if Tesla isn't? And if Tesla has been able to pass off the cash costs of building this factory, why not disclose that more openly - and the underlying arrangement that allowed that to happen.

EDIT: Tesla does report an almost $1Bn loan in China that they say was taken out to finance the construction of the factory, but where is the related asset or capex to show how that loan was used (pg. 103 of 2019 FS 10-K). Very confusing.

M.


« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 12:50:27 PM by mloub »

mloub

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3618 on: April 08, 2020, 12:52:12 PM »
they don't own the factory in common sense, they own the output / profits of the factory after the Chinese authorities make charge their minimum taxes.  The factory is in a sense an option for TSLA.  I actually think it was a pretty savvy way to expand production and also provides a nice story, while not costing Tesla much upfront.

Have to say I was way wrong on stock performance here.  Really pretty nutty.  I still think it doesn't make sense, but the price is what it is after a lot of very bad news.

I still don't get how bulls on Musk can ignore so much damning evidence but they seem to have been very right to have done so!

So let's say they don't own the factory, just the rights to its output. How much did they need to spend to get those rights, and where in their cash-flow statement is that reflected? Certainly doesn't seem to be reflected in capex, which is running at almost 60% of D&A.

benhacker

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3619 on: April 08, 2020, 01:42:13 PM »
You should read my comments in this thread if you havenít. I wonít be answering your questions... for somewhat obvious reasons. Donít recognize your name, so didnít want my silence to lead you to think Iím a dumb bull.

Iím a bear, and my comment above was as bullish as I get on TSLA...

Too many questions which donít have answers.
Ben Hacker
Beaverton, Oregon - USA