Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 880751 times)

mloub

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3620 on: April 08, 2020, 01:55:12 PM »
Sorry benhacker, I didn't mean to take a challenging tone. I definitely could see that you are questioning what is happening here too. And I've always been a fan of your posts.

My questions were meant generally to anyone who had an insight into what was happening here. I'm pretty sure that I am missing something.

How are others understanding this weird glitch in the statements? I know Tesla was helped by the Chinese Government. The Shanghai local Gov't gave Tesla the land for the factory and the central Govt allowed them to operate without a local partner - a first. And in return Tesla had certain minimum capex and tax comitments. Nowhere in the footnotes is there mention of someone building the Factory for Tesla, and supplying all the tooling and machinery. And if that is in fact the case, that someone built the factory for Tesla and Tesla just operates it and takes the profits, not disclosing it would be a big deal, imho. So there must be some other plausible explanation.

M.

Edit: I've heard some hypothesize that Tesla has become so efficient at building capacity that they built the facotry, and covered their maintenance capex all within the $1.3b Capex for 2019. While that is metaphysically possible, it just strikes me as such an incredible leap, there has to be a better explanation.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 01:58:24 PM by mloub »


A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3621 on: April 09, 2020, 02:15:13 AM »
Normally I would let my friend Dalal chime in, but based on his statements in this thread I don't think he reads the 10K.

Quote
Gigafactory Shanghai—Lease and Land Use Rights:
We have a lease arrangement with the local government of Shanghai for land use rights at Gigafactory Shanghai. Under the terms of the arrangement, we are required to meet a cumulative capital expenditure target and an annual tax revenue target starting at the end of 2023, which we believe will be attainable even if our actual vehicle production at Gigafactory Shanghai were far lower than the volumes we are forecasting.

Quote
Gigafactory Shanghai: We own the building and the land use rights with an initial term of 50 years. The land use rights are treated as operating lease right-of-use assets

Quote
Operating Lease Arrangement in Shanghai, China
We have an operating lease arrangement for an initial term of 50 years with the local government of Shanghai for land use rights where we are constructing Gigafactory Shanghai. Under the terms of the arrangement, we are required to spend RMB 14.08 billion in capital expenditures, and to generate RMB 2.23 billion of annual tax revenues starting at the end of 2023. If we are unwilling or unable to meet such target or obtain periodic project approvals, in accordance with the Chinese government’s standard terms for such arrangements, we would be required to revert the site to the local government and receive compensation for the remaining value of the land lease, buildings and fixtures. We believe the capital expenditure requirement and the tax revenue target will be attainable even if our actual vehicle production was far lower than the volumes we are forecasting.



« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 02:49:16 AM by A Dhandho Investor »

mloub

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3622 on: April 09, 2020, 11:55:24 AM »
I mean this to me is the critical excerpt from the footnote:

"...we are required to spend RMB 14.08 billion in capital expenditures, and to generate RMB 2.23 billion of annual tax revenues starting at the end of 2023. If we are unwilling or unable to meet such target or obtain periodic project approvals, in accordance with the Chinese government’s standard terms for such arrangements, we would be required to revert the site to the local government and receive compensation for the remaining value of the land lease, buildings and fixtures..."

So they are committed to spend $2b USD of Capex in Shanghai. That makes sense, and fits with the expected cost for a factory of this size and production capacity. So how much of that was spent in 2019? By the looks of it almost nothing, which makes no sense. Long-lived International Assets barely budged, and capex for 2019 was anemic.

If Tesla managed to transfer the cash out-flow for this required Capex off their books, whose books did they transfer it to? And if so, why is Tesla still recognizing the China loans and the resulting cash meant to fund the Shanghai capex on their books?

I truly am curious how folks who see a ton of potential in Tesla manage these fundamental math questions from the financial statements. What am I missing? And why is the company not addressing this, or being asked these questions in their conference calls?

In my experience whenever a company's story, and cash-flow statements don't match, one shouldn't settle for pat answers. If a plausible explanation doesn't surface soon, one would have to assume the worst and stay away. Reminds me very much of Sinoforest - a value investing favourite in its day - that was reporting phenomenal earnings, but almost no associated cash flow. Turns out they were swapping land back and forth with related parties at inflated prices so that they could increase their comparables and their carrying value of land on their books. Lots of reported earnings but no cash.

In this case, the problem is the inverse, lots of growth capex being implied (and financed), but no cash out-flow to match it.

M.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 12:29:28 PM by mloub »

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3623 on: April 09, 2020, 02:46:19 PM »
Normally I would let my friend Dalal chime in, but based on his statements in this thread I don't think he reads the 10K.

I love it when those who are perennially wrong exhibit high levels of arrogance.

It reveals who's on the other side of some of my trades.  ;D
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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3624 on: April 09, 2020, 02:51:22 PM »
Have to say I was way wrong on stock performance here.  Really pretty nutty.  I still think it doesn't make sense, but the price is what it is after a lot of very bad news.

At least you can admit when you are wrong unlike my buddy Dhando over here. They tell me that the first step in self-improvement is admitting when one gets it wrong (100% happens to everybody).

Clearly that exercise is more hypothetical for some.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 02:53:04 PM by Dalal.Holdings »
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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3625 on: April 09, 2020, 04:17:36 PM »
I mean this to me is the critical excerpt from the footnote:

"...we are required to spend RMB 14.08 billion in capital expenditures, and to generate RMB 2.23 billion of annual tax revenues starting at the end of 2023. If we are unwilling or unable to meet such target or obtain periodic project approvals, in accordance with the Chinese government’s standard terms for such arrangements, we would be required to revert the site to the local government and receive compensation for the remaining value of the land lease, buildings and fixtures..."

So they are committed to spend $2b USD of Capex in Shanghai. That makes sense, and fits with the expected cost for a factory of this size and production capacity. So how much of that was spent in 2019? By the looks of it almost nothing, which makes no sense. Long-lived International Assets barely budged, and capex for 2019 was anemic.

Keep in mind that the new lease standard knocked off $1.617 billion from PP&E effective 1/1/19 (page 80 from 10-K). One you adjust for that PP&E did go up Y/Y.

The below is probably the closest thing we have to 2019 Shanghai capex spend #.

"....capital expenditures, which were $1.33 billion during 2019, mainly for Gigafactory Shanghai construction, Model 3 production, and Model Y preparations"


If Tesla managed to transfer the cash out-flow for this required Capex off their books, whose books did they transfer it to? And if so, why is Tesla still recognizing the China loans and the resulting cash meant to fund the Shanghai capex on their books?

The China loans are on the balance sheet. Unpaid principal balance is $741 million, but they carry them for less. Page 97 of 10-K.

I truly am curious how folks who see a ton of potential in Tesla manage these fundamental math questions from the financial statements. What am I missing? And why is the company not addressing this, or being asked these questions in their conference calls?

In my experience whenever a company's story, and cash-flow statements don't match, one shouldn't settle for pat answers. If a plausible explanation doesn't surface soon, one would have to assume the worst and stay away. Reminds me very much of Sinoforest - a value investing favourite in its day - that was reporting phenomenal earnings, but almost no associated cash flow. Turns out they were swapping land back and forth with related parties at inflated prices so that they could increase their comparables and their carrying value of land on their books. Lots of reported earnings but no cash.

In this case, the problem is the inverse, lots of growth capex being implied (and financed), but no cash out-flow to match it.

M.

I think you are missing a few pieces of the puzzle. My comments in bold
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A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3626 on: April 11, 2020, 06:04:14 AM »
Have to say I was way wrong on stock performance here.  Really pretty nutty.  I still think it doesn't make sense, but the price is what it is after a lot of very bad news.

At least you can admit when you are wrong unlike my buddy Dhando over here. They tell me that the first step in self-improvement is admitting when one gets it wrong (100% happens to everybody).

Clearly that exercise is more hypothetical for some.

I can admit that I was wrong on stock performance, but as they say ‘the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent’

https://electrek.co/2020/04/10/tesla-puts-sales-and-delivery-staff-furlough/




Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3627 on: April 11, 2020, 07:12:02 AM »
Have to say I was way wrong on stock performance here.  Really pretty nutty.  I still think it doesn't make sense, but the price is what it is after a lot of very bad news.

At least you can admit when you are wrong unlike my buddy Dhando over here. They tell me that the first step in self-improvement is admitting when one gets it wrong (100% happens to everybody).

Clearly that exercise is more hypothetical for some.

I can admit that I was wrong on stock performance, but as they say ‘the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent’

https://electrek.co/2020/04/10/tesla-puts-sales-and-delivery-staff-furlough/

Yet you still cannot sift signal from noise!
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LC

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3628 on: April 13, 2020, 07:32:05 AM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fear-impending-car-price-collapse-110000556.html

The auto industry -- already fretting lengthy factory shutdowns and depressed new-vehicle demand -- is starting to sound the alarm about a potential used-car price collapse that could have far-reaching consequences for manufacturers, lenders and rental companies.

Used-vehicle auctions are for now virtually paralyzed, much like the rest of the economy. The grave concern market watchers have is that vehicles already are starting to pile up at places where buyers and sellers make and take bids on cars and trucks -- and that this imbalance will last for months.

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ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3629 on: April 13, 2020, 09:15:39 AM »

I can admit that I was wrong on stock performance, but as they say ‘the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent’



It is likely also true that individuals can stay irrational longer than the market.