Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 947382 times)

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4060 on: August 13, 2020, 08:15:57 AM »
These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

Sure, and Steve Jobs believed fruit could cure his pancreatic cancer—that didn’t stop AAPL from being like the most successful co in corporate history...

One can be CEO and irrational about some things and still wildly successful inside your wheelhouse.

But throwing objectivity out as an investor and making investment decisions based on that? Good luck with that.


JRM

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4061 on: August 13, 2020, 08:35:11 AM »
I invested in Apple 10 years ago and sold 2 years ago (way too soon obviously).  At the time the short thesis was "Apple is just a hardware company with unsustainable margins (ie Samsung, Google, and Microsoft were going to eat their lunch).  There was a writer on SA, William Blair, who put out lengthy articles weekly about how bad an investment and company Apple was.  Kind of reminds me of Montana Skeptic.  Eventually the short thesis shifted to Tim Cook is not a visionary CEO, and the successor to the iPhone is DOA.  This was like 8-9 years ago.   There never was a short thesis with Apple that it was committing accounting fraud or that it was overvalued based on cash flow metrics.

I can see the product similarities between Tesla and Apple as well as the cult following surrounding both brands.  However, with Tesla I don't see products with similar margins, scalability, or short upgrade cycle.

I'm happy to admit I've been wrong.  Maybe the Peter Lynch quote "The bear case always sounds more intelligent" is applicable here.  Maybe this is a pattern recognition trap.  Fun to watch from the sidelines, either way.




Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4062 on: August 13, 2020, 08:41:07 AM »
These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

Are the TSLAQ folks now saying that they think Elon thinks aliens built the pyramids? Man, if they are that naive, not wonder they get owned constantly. Can't recognize when someone is trolling...

arcube

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4063 on: August 13, 2020, 09:21:54 AM »
I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

JRM

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4064 on: August 13, 2020, 09:25:04 AM »
I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

I must have missed the efficient market explanation for why Tesla's stock price spiked when they announced a stock split dividend (whatever that is).

rkbabang

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4065 on: August 13, 2020, 09:27:37 AM »
I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

It's insane how a few teenagers using an app on their phones that allows them to buy fractional shares can move the market in huge hundred billion dollar+ market cap companies.  I'm going to buy way out of the money calls in Apple then tell my kids to tell their friends to buy with their allowance money.

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4066 on: August 13, 2020, 11:17:50 PM »
Tripp has released internal documents that prove his point and his point of view has been corroborated by at least one other whistleblower, Sean Gouthro.

edit: there is a third whistleblower: Karl Hansen.

What has been proven? Please cite it here. Thanks.

The internal emails and pictures Tripp has posted prove this statement from the Business Insider article as referred to in the Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-13/when-elon-musk-tried-to-destroy-tesla-whistleblower-martin-tripp

Quote
The article cited a source who figured the inefficiency had cost Musk’s electric car company $150 million, describing giant piles of scrap materials in the factory. Tesla denied the report, and a few hours later, the world moved on.

Tripp was the leak of the information because he had already confronted management with the issue and saw that nothing was being done about it. He thought they would address the issue if it was made public.

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4067 on: August 14, 2020, 12:08:38 AM »
I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

It's insane how a few teenagers using an app on their phones that allows them to buy fractional shares can move the market in huge hundred billion dollar+ market cap companies.  I'm going to buy way out of the money calls in Apple then tell my kids to tell their friends to buy with their allowance money.

In February, Tesla did a secondary offering at a price of 767 / share. As far as I remember, this was a pure retail offering (at market) so institutional investors did not participate.

What kind of new information came out since then that could make this business worth more than double the value before COVID hit in the eyes of an institutional investor?

Let's face that Tesla at the current valuation is a pure trading stock with 0 link to the economics underlying the business.

I saw this Mckinsey report the other day: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/mckinsey-electric-vehicle-index-europe-cushions-a-global-plunge-in-ev-sales

Quote
EV sales rose 65 percent from 2017 to 2018 (Exhibit 1). But in 2019, the number of units sold increased only to 2.3 million, from 2.1 million, for year-on-year growth of just 9 percent. Equally sobering, EV sales declined by 25 percent during the first quarter of 2020. The days of rapid expansion have ceased—or at least paused temporarily. Overall, Europe has seen the strongest growth in EVs.

A bet on Tesla is a bet that (1) the growth in the EV market will continue at the pace before 2019 (2) that Tesla will maintain or even increase its market share in the EV market (3) that Tesla will increase its profitability

About maintaining or increasing market share - Norway is the country with the highest EV penetration rate (60%). Take a look at (B)EV sales in Norway, the Netherlands and Spain in 2020 via https://eu-evs.com/

I see the following best selling models:
1. Kia Niro
2. Volkswagen Golf
3. Hyundiai Kona
4. Audi e-tron
5. Tesla model 3
6. Nissan Leaf
7. Renault Zoe
8. Toyota Corolla
9. MG ZS
10. Mercedes EQC

In Norway, the Audi e-tron has outsold the Model 3 by a factor of 3 in 2020 (6000 vs 1800 units sold).

Do the Tesla fans sincerely believe that Tesla can keep on its growth pace if global EV sales growth does not return to 2018 levels and taking into account all the new models from other brands coming out?

Tesla fans are talking about its leadership with regards to the range of its models, but stalling Model S sales show that people also care about other aspects like aesthetics and don't want to buy a model that has not received a decent facelift since 2012, not even when the car now costs maybe 70% of what the car cost in 2015.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 03:42:33 AM by A Dhandho Investor »

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4068 on: August 14, 2020, 06:47:06 AM »
Tripp has released internal documents that prove his point and his point of view has been corroborated by at least one other whistleblower, Sean Gouthro.

edit: there is a third whistleblower: Karl Hansen.

What has been proven? Please cite it here. Thanks.

The internal emails and pictures Tripp has posted prove this statement from the Business Insider article as referred to in the Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-13/when-elon-musk-tried-to-destroy-tesla-whistleblower-martin-tripp

Quote
The article cited a source who figured the inefficiency had cost Musk’s electric car company $150 million, describing giant piles of scrap materials in the factory. Tesla denied the report, and a few hours later, the world moved on.

Tripp was the leak of the information because he had already confronted management with the issue and saw that nothing was being done about it. He thought they would address the issue if it was made public.

So they had scrap metal and inefficiencies and problems during their breakneck vertically-integrated manufacturing ramp up that made headlines every day for a year? Where's the scandal?

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4069 on: August 14, 2020, 07:06:12 AM »
If you had read the story I posted earlier you would understand what is going on... http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2020/08/tesla-accounting-fraud.html

The scandal is twofold:
(1) the fact that Tesla didn't throw those parts away and still tried to use them in their manufacturing process, resulting in dangerous situations (I guess that it is best not to try to reuse punctured batteries)
(2) the fact that scrap parts that weren't reused weren't written off from the balance sheet. Hence the reference to virtually scrapping parts vs physically scrapping parts in the internal emails. They are still sitting in Tesla's inventory figure.

If there is no scandal why did Elon Musk set out to destroy him and why did Tesla not admit the story to the press?

edit: btw, their manufacturing inefficiencies aren't only related to the Model 3. After over 5 years of building the Model S, they still had over $800 scrap per car in 2018. Do you have an idea where Tesla discloses that in their annual report?
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 07:09:28 AM by A Dhandho Investor »