Author Topic: INTC - Intel  (Read 83230 times)

rkbabang

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4880
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #310 on: September 14, 2020, 12:04:55 PM »

Currently only two major chip manufacturers (Intel, TSMC). Not counting Samsung.

Global Foundries still exists (my group switched from TSMC to Global about two years ago, although my company as a whole uses TSMC more) and there are a lot of smaller internal company fabs around for older or specialty processes, which still produce a lot of chips and revenue. The company I work for still operates a number of such fabs.  For the cutting edge stuff you are correct, but the vast majority of semiconductor products do not need 10nm, 7nm, or 5nm ... processes.

Yeah, people forget that there's a crapload of chips out there that don't need to be on the latest node... TI and ADI make a zillion of these things

Exactly.  High asking prices + cheap to manufacture = high margins.


mwtorock

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 226
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #311 on: October 19, 2020, 11:02:44 AM »
Intel Corp. INTC +2.14% is nearing a deal to sell a memory-chip unit to South Korea’s SK Hynix Inc. 000660 1.64% for roughly $10 billion, in a move that would reorient the semiconductor giant away from an area of historical importance that has become increasingly challenged.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/intel-nears-deal-to-sell-nand-memory-unit-to-sk-hynix-11603129781?mod=hp_lista_pos2

Consolidation in NAND space. Maybe it is not that attractive to intel or they need the money for something else...
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 11:05:59 AM by mwtorock »

Nelg

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 11
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #312 on: October 21, 2020, 09:09:37 PM »
In 2003-2006, AMD beat Intel to an x86-compatible 64-bit CPU and soon after that beat them to dual-core processors. As a result, from 2005-2006, Intel's desktop+server CPU segment's operating income fell by almost 2/3, and this was despite Intel having a manufacturing advantage vs AMD (which I don't believe had ramped up their 300mm fab yet).

Is anyone else worried something like this (or worse) could happen? What are the mitigants to this?

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13095
  • libertyrpf.com
    • http://www.libertyrpf.com
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #313 on: October 23, 2020, 10:26:11 AM »

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5444
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #314 on: October 23, 2020, 04:06:11 PM »
Anyone noticed that they actually met earnings and beat on revenues? The sale of their NAND business which lost hundred of millions for $9B is good news too - every little bit helps.

Back in 2006, when they were under pressure from AMD as well, they traded for >20x earnings. Apparently, expectations are much worse now.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5648
    • Porfolio
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #315 on: October 23, 2020, 10:31:54 PM »
I noticed that they are still on track to make 20B annual FCF as they were before. ./shrug

I continue to hold a position.
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

OnTheShouldersOfGiants

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 40
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #316 on: Today at 08:48:45 AM »
Is it just me or does X86 in general seem to be under attack?

Microsoft is further refining windows on ARM with 64bit compatibility, Apple moving Macs to ARM processors, AWS designing their own ARM silicone for the datacenter which they claim have 40% better performance for 20% less cost.

For those with expertise in the area, is it possible in your opinion that ARM can eventually take over most workloads currently served by X86 processors?

beerbaron

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1432
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #317 on: Today at 10:04:44 AM »
ARM will not take over server any time soon. Consider how sticky a software is to an entreprise, once implemented accross the group it's nearly impossible to get rid of it. Now, imagine all your infrastructure running each of those software on X86 and someone coming to say: "Wanna save on your electricy bill? All you have to do is convince all your software providers to compile into ARM, move all your data and servers...". Operationally there is no point to do all that (if possible) for saving a cost that probably is less than 1% or your operating expense.

What will happen is a word of x86 and a word of ARM living in parrallel.

Does anybody know how many chips are now released that use 10nm? Intel was saying they targetted 9 by the end of 2020 and that yields are above expectations. We are now near the end of the year, if they are close to delivering their 9 maybe that means the 10nm is now in order and ready to start competing with TSMC 7nm.

Thanks
BeerBaron

Castanza

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1665
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #318 on: Today at 12:33:10 PM »
I noticed that they are still on track to make 20B annual FCF as they were before. ./shrug

I continue to hold a position.

Tech seems to ebb and flow. Intel is out of favor like AMD was out of favor from 2005-2014ish. Sometimes the simplest thesis is the best. I think their fab facilities will become more crucial with time. They do have a culture issue and a leadership issue. But that is always fixable. I also still hold a position and will likely add a bit here and if it continues to down on negative sentiment.
Core: MSFT | GOOG | INTC | PLTR | CMCSA | VZ | RTX | MSGS | BATRK | WFC | USB | PNC | BAC | TPL | PPL | PCYO | GRBK | PLNT | ATCO | ESPO | HACK

Funny Money: NIO

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5444
Re: INTC - Intel
« Reply #319 on: Today at 01:32:40 PM »
I noticed that they are still on track to make 20B annual FCF as they were before. ./shrug

I continue to hold a position.

Tech seems to ebb and flow. Intel is out of favor like AMD was out of favor from 2005-2014ish. Sometimes the simplest thesis is the best. I think their fab facilities will become more crucial with time. They do have a culture issue and a leadership issue. But that is always fixable. I also still hold a position and will likely add a bit here and if it continues to down on negative sentiment.

I have a small-medium sized position and consider adding after I looked at the release and the CC transcript. There really isn’t much unexpected bad news except shrinking ASP for server chips and it isn’t clear that it is an Intel specific issue.

Other than that, Intel has released some 10nm node (equivalent to 7nm TSMC) chips, but yields are still an issue , which isn’t unexpected (it was telegraphed last quarter).

Despite the above ,they met earnings and beat slightly on revenues.

The deal to sell the loss making (-900M last year) NAND Business is a strong positive.

No new issues with 10nm or their 7nm developed seem to have popped up.

The Bull thesis is that  Intel is still a leader in chip tech and trades cheaper than it did for eons. It is also a strategic assets for the US and the US government will do everything it can to make sure it remains so:
https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/INTEL_CORP/6955176147


It is clear that Intel has issues, and needs some serious adjustments but I actually think that the current CEO does the right things. It’s sure would be better if a tech wizard were still the helm, but for now, I don’t think he is doing a bad job.
« Last Edit: Today at 01:35:13 PM by Spekulatius »
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.