TSLA - Tesla Motors

[ERICOPOLY]

Oh, they don't make the Michelin Pilot Sport tires that go on the performance plus vehicle.  So they're not vertically integrated.

That's another one to bring up.

Except that the battery is 50% of the cost of the car so having cost advantages in battery production actually DOES matter.

Maybe you believe I said somewhere that cost of battery does not matter? 

Do you believe Tesla is unable to lower their cost of battery pack?

[txlaw]

Toyota and Daimler are big Tesla investors:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2013/06/01/what-do-toyota-and-mercedes-see-in-tesla-a-bit-of-themselves/

Daimler, for instance, uses a Tesla battery in the electric version of its Smart city car. And its upcoming Mercedes B-class EV, which goes on sale in 2014, will feature a Tesla powertrain. Toyota, meanwhile, gave Tesla a $100 million contract to supply the  electric motor, power electronics, battery, gearbox and software for the new $50,000 RAV4 EV. The SUVs are made alongside Tesla’s Model S sedan in a Fremont, Calif., factory formerly operated by Toyota and General Motors GM -2.17%. Toyota sold the plant to Tesla in 2010 for $42 million.

I like Tesla the company a lot, and I think Musk will be successful with it.  Not only is he building a fantastic brand for EVs that any of the big auto guys would love to have (maybe Tesla is the new BMW or Porsche in terms of brand value?), but he's also doing deals with folks like Toyota and Mercedes (as noted by Eric above) to provide the guts of some of their new releases.

Having said all of the above, I find the current market valuation puzzling.  It's weird that Fiat/Chrysler is worth less to the market than Tesla.

[Otsog]

Has anyone been following the legal aspect of tesla's direct selling?

Is the pushback they've been getting from some states a material hindrance or just noise?

[deadspace]

Oh, they don't make the Michelin Pilot Sport tires that go on the performance plus vehicle.  So they're not vertically integrated.

That's another one to bring up.

Except that the battery is 50% of the cost of the car so having cost advantages in battery production actually DOES matter.

Maybe you believe I said somewhere that cost of battery does not matter? 

Do you believe Tesla is unable to lower their cost of battery pack?

No I don't - not relative to anyone else who is making electric cars.  There is no cost advantage when you are buying from panasonic

[shalab]

No I don't - not relative to anyone else who is making electric cars.  There is no cost advantage when you are buying from panasonic

It is like saying Microsoft has no advantage because its operating systems ( mostly ) run on intel chips.

[ERICOPOLY]

No cost advantage in buying from Panasonic?

Hmm...  does Panasonic have a monopoly in batteries, or is the battery a commodity?  What pricing power does Panasonic have?

My understanding is that a battery is a commodity and prices will come down.  You can make your own, but isn't it more important to make the best car, since they are selling cars and not batteries?

Tesla makes the best car.  Best electric car, but also the best car of any variety.  The absolute best.

Someone will come along and sell them a cheaper battery if Panasonic rips them off.  Maybe they'll begin making batteries themselves -- but why not let somebody else make the battery to their specs? 

[ERICOPOLY]

Has anyone been following the legal aspect of tesla's direct selling?

Is the pushback they've been getting from some states a material hindrance or just noise?

I like Elon Musk's argument.  He basically stated that if the dealers add value (as they claim) then "obviously" Tesla does not have an unfair economic advantage in selling direct.

Imagine making Amazon.com illegal because they sell direct to consumers without a brick and mortar store.

[plato1976]

txlaw,

I cannot make a judgement if TSLA is overvalued. But I think the puzzle is more about FIAT being way undervalued.

/plato1976

Toyota and Daimler are big Tesla investors:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2013/06/01/what-do-toyota-and-mercedes-see-in-tesla-a-bit-of-themselves/

Daimler, for instance, uses a Tesla battery in the electric version of its Smart city car. And its upcoming Mercedes B-class EV, which goes on sale in 2014, will feature a Tesla powertrain. Toyota, meanwhile, gave Tesla a $100 million contract to supply the  electric motor, power electronics, battery, gearbox and software for the new $50,000 RAV4 EV. The SUVs are made alongside Tesla’s Model S sedan in a Fremont, Calif., factory formerly operated by Toyota and General Motors GM -2.17%. Toyota sold the plant to Tesla in 2010 for $42 million.

I like Tesla the company a lot, and I think Musk will be successful with it.  Not only is he building a fantastic brand for EVs that any of the big auto guys would love to have (maybe Tesla is the new BMW or Porsche in terms of brand value?), but he's also doing deals with folks like Toyota and Mercedes (as noted by Eric above) to provide the guts of some of their new releases.

Having said all of the above, I find the current market valuation puzzling.  It's weird that Fiat/Chrysler is worth less to the market than Tesla.

[deadspace]

No cost advantage in buying from Panasonic?

Hmm...  does Panasonic have a monopoly in batteries, or is the battery a commodity?  What pricing power does Panasonic have?

My understanding is that a battery is a commodity and prices will come down.  You can make your own, but isn't it more important to make the best car, since they are selling cars and not batteries?

Tesla makes the best car.  Best electric car, but also the best car of any variety.  The absolute best.

Someone will come along and sell them a cheaper battery if Panasonic rips them off.  Maybe they'll begin making batteries themselves -- but why not let somebody else make the battery to their specs?

Well you might be right.  I just don't know. And i think the jury is still out on this subject

As of now lithium ion batteries are not all the same - there are dramatic differences in terms of time to charge and discharge and number of charging cycles a battery can sustain.  Obviously if you need to get a new battery at 60,000 km thats not as good a value as a battery that will outlast the car.  With the best  battery being at such a high price relative to the car you can see price advantages going to producers of both battery and car especially in cars that are priced at the lower end of the spectrum.  It may not matter to the $100,000 car crowd but in the mass market this may be a major differentiator. 

But maybe battery production becomes simpler and commoditized to the point where all batteries are the same - they certainly don't seem to be a major differentiator in the world of smart phones  ....

time will tell.... 

[PlanMaestro]

What is the base rate probability for a new high performance automaker? Can anyone name a success story?

I really don't know ... but the ones that come to mind show that a lot of things can go wrong even without the need to build a charger network.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Tucker_Sedan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeLorean_DMC-12

And even if it endures, what is the probability that shareholders will earn a decent ROI? Lots of shares coming.